Best Matchups Bets for the 2021 PLAYERS Championship

| March 10, 2021 10:07 am PDT

There are a bunch of ways to bet on THE PLAYERS Championship online. My preferred method, and it’s not even particularly close, is to scour the head-to-head selection and fire away on underdogs.

Nabbing golfers in “plus-money territory” doesn’t pan out every single week, but I can assure you it has been a fruitful exercise over the long haul. Looking ahead toward the action at TPC Sawgrass, I spotted a trio of PLAYERS Championship matchup picks that I couldn’t wait to lock in.

With that, allow me to guide you straight to value town.

Corey Conners vs. Brendon Todd

Corey Conners-165
Brendon Todd+145

I’m a fan of Corey Conners – I love his simple action and his dependable right-to-left shot shape. He deserves to be favored over Brendon Todd in a H2H matchup at THE PLAYERS. Having said that, Corey’s solo-third at Bay Hill has pushed one of the best golf betting sites to install Conners at -165 against Todd.

That seems a bit flagrant.

Recency bias is going to influence bettors to side with Conners, but backing Todd at +145 is too much value to pass on. Succeeding at the Stadium Course doesn’t come down to being able to bomb it 340. It comes down to positioning your ball off the tee and playing the angles. It’s about precision and putting.

2020-21 PGA Tour Stats
  SG: Putting (PGA Tour Rank) SG: Around the Green (PGA Tour Rank)
Corey Conners 107th 127th
Brendon Todd 5th 41st

Corey and Brendon both excel at finding fairways, but there’s a major discrepancy between the pair’s short games. Hence, I’ll ride with Todd in this PLAYERS Championship matchup bet.

  • Brendon Todd

Lanto Griffin vs. Russell Henley

Lanto Griffin+107
Russell Henley-128

Lanto Griffin continues to get disrespected by the bookies despite churning out one good finish after another. Coming off a T21 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Griffin has strung together four consecutive showings of 26th or better. Lanto’s now finished inside the top-26 in more than half of his starts this season. (7/13).

Also worth noting, Griffin resides in Ponte Vedra Beach and gets plenty of reps in at the Stadium Course.

On the flip side, Russell Henley has cracked the top-26 just once in his last seven appearances. On paper, the University of Georgia product appears to be a good fit at this venue. However, recent data paints a different picture.

Henley was tied for 98th after an opening 73 in 2020, perhaps on his way to missing his fourth cut in five years at THE PLAYERS Championship.

Russell Henley’s Last Four Starts at THE PLAYERS Championship
Year Result
2019 MC
2018 MC
2017 T35
2016 MC

With Lanto lurking at +107, this is one of the PLAYERS Championship head-to-head picks I recommend getting behind.

  • Lanto Griffin

Jon Rahm vs. Dustin Johnson

Jon Rahm-135
Dustin Johnson+115

Hold it right there.

BetUS has Dustin Johnson listed at +1100 to win the tournament; Jon Rahm is listed at +1500. Now check out these PLAYERS Championship props involving the top-2 players in the world.

  Top 5 Finish Odds Top 10 Finish Odds Top 20 Finish Odds
Dustin Johnson +300 +150 -140
Jon Rahm +350 +185 -140

Now you can see why I’m scratching my head as to why DJ is the +115 underdog versus Rahmbo.

I can’t sit here and knock any part of Jon’s game, nor do I need to reiterate the absolute terror Dustin has been since the fall of 2020.

I’ll simply confirm that in 2019, Johnson was the only player to break 70 in all four rounds at Sawgrass. It could be a while until you can latch onto DJ at +115 in another head-to-head matchup – do you really want to miss out on this opportunity?

  • Dustin Johnson

More PLAYERS Championship Picks

I’m backing one Georgia Bulldog and fading another. I’ve convinced myself that taking advantage of Dustin Johnson priced at +115 against Jon Rahm is an obligatory wager. And there’s more.

These PLAYERS Championship matchup bets are just one way to get money down on the “5th Major.” Given the extended coverage and ability to watch every shot from every player, it’s the perfect time to immerse yourself into the other platforms.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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