Best Prop Bets for the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines
We’ve had plenty of time to scope the odds and dissect the head-to-head matchups. As you continue preparing to bet on the action at Torrey Pines, the next item on the agenda is to dive into the US Open props.
The best golf sportsbooks have released a handful of intriguing prop bets for the US Open – not just the “silly” ones tied to the Bryson/Brooks fiasco.
After browsing the selection scouring for value, here’s a six-pack of wagers that caught my attention.
Will Phil Mickelson Make the Cut at the 2021 US Open?
Resting at home since missing the cut at Colonial, Phil’s still riding high off his victory at Kiawah Island. The combination of winning the last major and playing at a golf course that he knows like the back of his hand should result in a solid finish at the 2021 US Open.
Or maybe it won’t.
|Phil Mickelson’s US Open Results Since 2015|
This is a golf tournament that places a premium on driving the ball in play – that’s not exactly Mickelson’s forte. Lefty clocks in 180th on tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and 137th in GIR. And while his short game used to bail him out on numerous occasions, Phil’s currently 195th in scrambling.
I’m not super convictive that Mickelson falls short of the cut line, but I’d peg his chances of pulling an “MC Hammer” at least 50%. That counts as an endorsement for “no” at +105.
- Pick – No (+105)
Highest 18 Hole Score at the 2021 US Open
To quickly give you an idea of how nasty the rough is this week at Torrey Pines, check out this clip Ian Poulter posted on his Twitter account during a Tuesday practice round.
I saw another video of Tony Finau advancing it about 75 yards from just a couple of steps off the fairway, and we could hear Boyd Summerhays (Finau’s coach) yelling, “Great shot Tony.”
The moral is that this course is going to be brutally difficult. Considering the handful of non-touring pros who have worked their way into the field, somebody is bound to toss up an 87.
Perhaps nobody shot over 86 at the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines. However, four guys shot 86 in the first round, and there was another 86 in the second round. Going back to last year’s edition at Winged Foot, Friday’s second round witnessed a trio of 85s and an 86.
- Pick – Over 86.5 (-130)
Lowest 18 Hole Score at the 2021 US Open
Low scores were few and far between at this venue 13 summers ago. One player broke 66 at the 2008 US Open – that was Heath Slocum when he shot 65 during the final round. In fact, only five sub-68 rounds were registered throughout the entire week.
|Players Who Shot 67 or Lower at the 2008 US Open|
|Miguel Angel Jimenez||66||Second|
For some more perspective on how hard it is to shoot 65 or lower on the South Course, just two rounds of 65 (or lower) were recorded at the South Course at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open (Viktor Hovland shot 65 in the second round, Sepp Straka shot 65 in the final round).
I’m not overly thrilled about laying -150; I’m just not sure a 65 will be out there. Another way to approach this bet is to lay -225 that the leading score after day one is over 65.5.
- Pick – Over 65.5 (-150)
How Many Players Will Finish Under Par at Torrey Pines?
If you plan on booking any of the best US Open prop bets, this is the one to hammer.
Just like they did back in ’08, the USGA has converted the 6th hole at the South Course at Torrey Pines into a beastly par 4. The 515-yard dogleg right goes from a “birdie opportunity” to “how can I salvage a par?” Assessing the rest of the front nine, there just aren’t a whole lot of realistic birdie chances.
Frankly, there aren’t many on the back either unless the tee boxes are moved up on #13 and #18.
Remember, Tiger and Rocco were the only two players to finish in red figures in 2008 (each finished -1). Bryson was the only individual to complete 72 holes under par at the 2020 US Open, and here’s one more tidbit that has me leaning toward the “under.”
In what’ll be Mike Davis’ final hurrah setting up the US Open golf course, he’ll want to go out with a bang – not take heat for letting the players off the hook like in ’17 and ’19.
- Pick – Under 6.5 (-125)
Winning Score (72-Hole Total) at the 2021 US Open
Will the winning score be at least six-under-par?
My estimation is no.
Once again, I’m piggybacking on the notion that Torrey Pines will be playing extremely tough. I mentioned that 281 (1-under-par) was the winning score the last time the US Open was held on the cliffs of La Jolla, and here’s some more evidence to help state my case.
The setup that week will feel like a cakewalk compared to what the competitors will face this week.
Unless you’re expecting another six-shot romping as we saw at Winged Foot in September, don’t hold your breath on Sunday waiting for someone to post six-under-par.
- Pick – Over 279.5 (-130)
Will There Be a First-Time Major Winner?
Jon Rahm is penciled in #1 in my US Open power rankings, and I picked him to win the tournament. On the other hand, here’s an opportunity to hedge my action.
Aside from Rahm, there’s a bevy of non-major winners who could be in the mix over the weekend – Xander, Hovland, and Zalatoris quickly come to mind. Having said that, +300 is a pretty sweet price tag to latch onto one of the following players hoisting the hardware.
- Dustin Johnson
- Brooks Koepka
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Jordan Spieth
- Patrick Reed
- Justin Thomas
- Webb Simpson
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Phil Mickelson
- Shane Lowry
- Adam Scott
- Sergio Garcia
- Justin Rose
- Stewart Cink
- Bubba Watson
- Gary Woodland
- Zach Johnson
We get to include Charl Schwartzel, Henrik Stenson, Martin Kaymer, and Jimmy Walker in our pool for some added insurance.
That’s many quality names and several guys who are rooted on the shortlist of genuine contenders.
- Pick – No (+300)
More US Open Betting Picks
Tackling the best US Open props is one of the most entertaining ways to bet on the US Open. It can also be one of the more lucrative platforms if you’re careful about the wagers you place.
The great news is there are all sorts of ways to make money betting on the US Open.
My top DFS picks can be tracked below, along with my predictions and best bets for the week. Good luck and enjoy the festivities!