Best NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 5, 2020
NFL player props were kind to me in week four. Odell Beckham Jr. (-150) hauled in over five catches, Lamar Jackson topped 1.5 passing scores (-111), and Aaron Jones (-139) found his way into the endzone, like he always seems to.
It was a solid week for our NFL player props, and we can dive right back into the craziness of pro football again this week.
There is more COVID-19 concern out there, so it may make some sense to scale back your game betting a bit and focus just on players. If you’re down for that, join me as I break down my favorite NFL player props for week 5.
Mike Davis Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
My approach with NFL player props is to either get bets at insane value, or really aim high if you’re taking on some risk. This bet feels like it has no risk, and still offers incredible value.
Mike Davis has had a huge role for the Carolina Panthers ever since Christian McCaffrey got hurt. He’s registered 8, 8, and 5 receptions in the past three games. He’s turned those opportunities into 74, 45, and 27 receiving yards.
This week, Davis has a matchup to die for, as he faces a bad Falcons defense. Atlanta is severely banged up, not performing well at all, and specifically struggles against pass-catching running backs.
Most targets among all RBs Weeks 1-4:— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 6, 2020
Alvin Kamara (34)
Ezekiel Elliott (28)
Mike Davis (23)
Most receptions allowed to RBs:
1. Panthers (37)
2. Falcons (34)
Davis plays the Falcons in Week 5. Going to go out on a limb here and say he's set up well.
Atlanta has allowed the second-most receptions to backs in 2020, as well as the third-most receiving yards. There is a prop setting Davis’ catch total at 5.5, but that feels a tad ambitious.
This 37.5-yard total isn’t. He honestly should see 5+ catches, and the odds are quite good that he can churn out enough yardage with those receptions to crush this total.
Baker Mayfield Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-103)
This won’t be the easiest bet to track down, but most NFL betting sites will have something you can bet on dealing with Baker Mayfield.
I love this yardage total going toward the Under, seeing as the Browns definitely prefer to run the ball, and they have a tough matchup this week.
That’s a bit of an understatement, as the Colts rank #1 against the pass-through four weeks.
The matchup is positively brutal, and the way Cleveland operates on offense doesn’t really suggest Mayfield will be taking it to the air a ton. I also have the Browns as one of my top week five NFL upset picks, which may indicate the Browns find success on the ground and control the tempo of this game.
Considering Mayfield has failed to put up even 220 yards in a game all season, the Under feels like a locked-in play.
Russell Wilson Over 289.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Normally I’d probably scoff at a passing yardage total this high. It’s asking a lot, as Wilson probably has to approach 300+ yards to get the win.
However, the way he’s been playing in 2020, he can arguably do that in his sleep.
And nobody really knows how to defend the guy, as he actually thrives under pressure these days.
Highest-graded QBs under pressure:— PFF (@PFF) October 8, 2020
1. Russell Wilson – 87.8
2. Patrick Mahomes – 75.2
3. Aaron Rodgers – 73.1
4. Justin Herbert – 72.2 pic.twitter.com/sPtS6QGDKH
The matchup surely helps, as the Minnesota Vikings have been awful defensively this season. Aaron Rodgers got the party started with 364 yards against them in week one, and they fall in line as the 5th worst defense against the pass right now.
Wilson, meanwhile, is dropping dimes left and right en route to what he hopes is an NFL MVP year. Even if he doesn’t get the nod at the end of the season, he should feast here.
The Vikings really shouldn’t have an answer for him, while Wilson has yet to pass for under 288 yards. I doubt he does that in week five, either.
I like to include as many NFL player props that make sense. It’s good to aim high with some crazy props, but it’s also not a bad idea to condense things and just take what the defense gives you.
In this case, the “defense” is the best online sportsbooks and the pricing they’re offering. Sometimes, there are odds or props that feel too good to be true, and other times they’re just too good to pass up.
My week five NFL player prop bets fall in the latter category. If you want to aim a bit higher, consider attacking some of these in some “double performance” wagers, or string them together in a parlay.
These props are admittedly from all of the web, so keep in mind you’ll have to shop around to find the perfect prop bets at the right price.
For most of your week 5 NFL player props, it may make sense to head over to BetOnline.