Best NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 4, 2020

| October 2, 2020 9:24 am PDT

Last week was a close call with some of my NFL player prop bets. Kyler Murray scored again on the ground, but just missed the rushing yardage total we needed him to get.

That was a tough miss at a nice +225 price. Then Joe Burrow passed for 312 yards, but still lost the yardage battle with fellow rookie, Justin Herbert.

I didn’t deliver with last week’s bets, but we can always try again. Here’s a look at my favorite week 4 NFL player props to target at the best online sportsbooks.

Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-111)

Lamar Jackson was objectively horrible last week, as he mustered just 97 yards in a tough loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Unless he’s just suddenly awful now, we should all fully expect a big bounce-back game against the Washington Football Team.

I know I do, as the top NFL betting sites peg the Ravens as large 14-point favorites. That spread feels a bit thick, but the point to hammer home is that Baltimore is going to win here.

If we believe that, we should agree Jackson is in for a solid outing. Carson Wentz tossed two scores against this Washington defense in week one, Kyler Murray found paydirt thrice, and last week Baker Mayfield dropped two touchdowns on them in week three.

Jackson is better than all of those guys, so betting on him two get two passing touchdowns feels like a home run.

Kenyan Drake to Score a Rushing Touchdown (+140)

Another week four NFL player prop I love is Drake getting in the endzone against the Panthers. He has just one score on the year, but he has a really nice role in Arizona’s offense, and you get the feeling he’s due to pop off a bit.

That’s why he is one of my favorite week four NFL DFS picks.

Maybe that will have some gravitating more towards a Kenyan Drake rushing yardage prop, but I’d rather take the value and bet on him punching one in the endzone.

Carolina’s run defense is pretty bad, and they’ve allowed a league-leading seven scores to running backs. Drake might get multiple scores this week, but betting on him to get one at +140 feels like a steal.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-143)

More highway robbery in the form of week four NFL player props arrives in this Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown wager. Fitzmagic is alive and well (5 touchdowns over his last two games), and he’s now set to duel with Russell Wilson in a potential shootout.

This is a turnover-prone quarterback we’re talking about, but this game total (54 at BetOnline) is obviously very alluring. Much of that will come via Wilson and the Seahawks, but Seattle’s defense has been all of the bad through three weeks.

Seattle has gotten burned in the secondary, as quarterbacks have carved them up to the tune of the most passing yards in the entire league. Opposing quarterbacks also have six touchdowns through the air.

You can find a friendly Fitzpatrick passing yardage prop if you’d like, but in an expected shootout, I think he safely gets two scores at a palatable -143 price tag.

Odell Beckham Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions (-150)

More shootouts are on their way in week four, as the Cowboys host the Browns in a game with a hefty 56 total.

Who knows if it gets there, but I do imagine Baker Mayfield and this Cleveland passing game either finding success early, or being forced to air it out late. Dallas pushes the issue with their offense, and their defense has been ghastly to start the year.

In the last two weeks, we’ve seen Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson put up nine total passing touchdowns against this secondary. I expect the Browns to have some success, and Beckham Jr. could thrive in a matchup where guys like Calvin Ridley (7 catches) and Tyler Lockett (9) have done very well.

Five catches isn’t even a tall order for a guy who has seen 10, 6, and 6 targets to start the year. Baker Mayfield has also pleaded with his receivers to be patient, and I think he rewards them this week.

Darrell Henderson Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-130)

Darrell Henderson has been on fire to start the year, as he’s broken away as the Rams’ clear feature back with 14 and 21 touches over his last two games.

The work has translated into solid production, too, as Henderson has graded out as the best running back in the NFL to this point.

Henderson has topped 81+ rushing yards the last two weeks in this new role, and in week four he faces a suspect Giants defense.

Aiding his case is the news that fellow backfield mate Cam Akers is unlikely to suit up again this week.

Aaron Jones to Score a Touchdown (-139)

Lastly, I can’t help but love the odds of Aaron Jones scoring in week four. Not only is he at home against a terrible Falcons defense, but the guy is as reliable of a scorer as they come.

Jones found paydirt 19 times in 2019, and has not missed a beat in 2020, scoring five total touchdowns through the first three weeks. He’s also spread that production out nicely, managing to score at least once in every single game.

It’s hard to hate Jones in this matchup, seeing as the Falcons have allowed four total scores to running backs on the year.

Jones should also benefit from even more work than usual, as Green Bay just lost number two receiver Allen Lazard to a core muscle injury.

Davante Adams is also still not 100%, so if the Packers are going to be this under-manned in the passing game, Jones could be looking at a massive workload.

Summary

It should surprise nobody that some of my favorite NFL player props for week four also align with my top daily fantasy football picks this week. You can check out all my advice for NFL DFS in week four at our fantasy sports blog.

As for the week four NFL player props above, I think we get a nice mixture of value and reliability with these options. You can find a bunch more at the top NFL sportsbooks, but these are my personal favorites.

Whether you bet on the props listed here or not, I wish you luck this week. Happy betting, and enjoy the games!

Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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