Best NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 3, 2020
Last week was the king of bad beats when it came to betting on NFL player props. Aaron Rodgers saw his receivers drop at least four passes en route to a 240-yard day.
That was probably the most egregious gaffe, as maybe one or two of those catches get him over his 278-yard threshold. Derrick Henry was also in a smash spot against a weak Jaguars run defense, but turned 25 carries into just 84 rushing yards.
Cam Newton also ran for 47 yards, falling just four yards shy of a sweet +146 payoff. Clyde Edwards-Helaire even got it going as a receiver with over 32 yards through the air, but missed our target by four lousy yards.
Weak, all around.
Fortunately, our favorite NFL player prop bets weren’t a total failure, as Mike Evans caught seven balls (+119), and delivered our lone victory of the week.
The aim is to find success with a lot more than one player prop bet, of course. Join me as I break down my favorite week 3 NFL player props and why you should target them.
Kyler Murray Over 40+ Rush Yards and a Rushing TD (+225)
You can actually take the “no” side of this wager at BetOnline (-350), but where’s the fun in that?
I thought about scaling things back a bit and going for some easier week three NFL player prop bets – and I will to a degree – but Murray’s dominance on the ground so far can’t be ignored.
Is Murray out to make Lamar Jackson’s 2019 rushing production look juvenile? Maybe, as he’s rushed for 158 yards and three scores in two games.
Asking Murray to get over 40 rushing yards isn’t a tall order. He’s done that easily through the first two weeks, and the Detroit Lions defense he faces this week isn’t scary. The touchdown is the gamble.
That said, Murray is on fire, in a good spot, and the price is right. I say swing for the fences on this one. I have Kyler Murray in my week three NFL DFS lineups, after all, so you better believe I have high expectations for him.
Nick Mullens Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-120)
This one could admittedly go either way, as Mullens is set to take over for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo this week.
49ers’ HC Kyle Shanahan told @KNBR this morning that QB Nick Mullens will start Sunday at the Giants.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 25, 2020
Jimmy G isn’t really asked to light it up that much, however, and with Mullens being a drop down in terms of talent, you have to think the 49ers will put a greater emphasis on running the ball when they face the New York Giants.
San Francisco doesn’t set up as an offense about to light the world afire through the air, even when Garoppolo is healthy. His top wide receiver remains sidelined with an injury, the 49ers prefer to control the clock with their ground game, and George Kittle isn’t 100%.
The only logic that demands Mullens air it out is the Niners trailing. They’re still favored despite all of their injuries, and they’re facing a New York run defense that has allowed the 11th most rushing yards on the season.
I expect the 49ers to play it safe and ask as little of Mullens as they possibly can.
Jeff Driskel Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-120)
This really isn’t where I thought I’d be going when I geared up for some week three NFL player props. However, the top NFL sportsbooks have been weirdly reluctant to push prop bets out this week.
We’re left with these spare parts, but honestly, I don’t even care. Driskel topping 211 yards to win this bet feels like an easy win, especially since he has been known to air it out when he plays.
Jeff Driskel has more completions over 20 yards than Patrick Mahomes this season— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) September 23, 2020
He certainly did that last week, as Denver’s offense calls for shots down the field. He responded with some terrific plays, and ended up passing for 256 yards despite not playing the whole game.
That was against a very good Steelers defense. This week he faces the Buccaneers, who aren’t as dominant through the air.
The Broncos still figure to trail Tom Brady and company, though, which only plays into Driskel having to launch balls down the field more than Denver would probably prefer.
Barring Denver just running all over a good Bucs rush defense, Driskel should throw enough to easily surpass this yardage total.
Joe Burrow More Passing Yards Than Justin Herbert (-175)
Let’s cap things off with what feels like a relatively safe NFL player prop bet over at Bovada.
There’s nothing like betting on how rookie NFL quarterbacks will fare, and it’s only made more fun when we can wager on them in a matchup bet.
This one pits Joe Burrow against Justin Herbert, with the latter being named the tentative starter for the Chargers this week.
Both of these guys can sling it, as both are coming off of huge 300+ passing yardage days. The question at hand, of course, is who will put up more yards through the air this week?
In terms of game flow and matchup, I think it’s got to be Burrow. The -175 price is nothing to write home about, but Philly’s weakness remains their pass defense, and the Bengals are expected to be trailing in this one.
L.A.’s game plan is likely to be to run the ball as much as possible, and the odds are good they find some success against a suspect Panthers defense.
The NFL is a crazy beast. Look at last week, where I offered five logical NFL player prop bets – and most of them came ridiculously close – and things just went the other way.
How does Derrick Henry not drop 100+ yards on Jacksonville? How do both CEH and Cam Newton miss out on a prop by four yards? That’s football, I guess.
The beauty, of course, is week three brings a brand new slate of games, as well as new NFL player props we can attack. I like the four listed above. If you’re with me, head over to your trusted sports betting sites and put some money on them.