Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 11, 2020

| November 20, 2020 7:09 am PDT

Week 11 in the NFL feels a bit misleading. When I took a look at the early betting lines, I didn’t see a fully loaded week jammed with explosive shootouts.

Looking at the updated pricing, I’m still only seeing three games with a total north of 50.

That’s…not a lot.

Now, I say misleading because I tend to think some of these totals are a bit low.

That not only could mean betting on the Over makes good sense in a lot of games this week, but also that more points could equate to impressive individual play.

Take it however you will, but I personally think that could create the incentive to bet on Week 11 NFL player props. Then again, I like to do that for literally no reason at all, other than the love of pro football and betting on sports.

Either way, I’m back to hand out some NFL player prop bets for Week 11. Here are my favorite plays for week 11.

Cam Newton to Score a Touchdown (+120)

You can bet on Newton to toss over 1.5 scores through the air, but he’s literally only thrown three touchdowns all year, and you lose value (EVEN) with that bet.

Newton has been pretty reliable with his legs, as he’s New England’s goal-line back basically, and he’s quite effective in that role.

On the year, Newton has run in an amazing nine touchdowns on the ground, and he’s now done so three games in a row. I’ll gladly roll the dice on him doing it once again in week 11 at this price.

Michael Thomas to Score a Touchdown (+108)

It’s time. I know Drew Brees is out with a rib and lung issue, but Michael Thomas has been held out of the end-zone all year, and he’s due.

Thomas has either been operating at less than 100% or he hasn’t even been on the field. For seemingly the first time in 2020, he’s healthy, and a date with a bad Atlanta Falcons defense gives him perhaps the best matchup he’s seen to this point.

Moving from Brees to Jameis Winston could make him a shaky bet in the eyes of many, but Winston knows how to get the ball to his best receivers.

I like any Michael Thomas prop bets this week, as I think he finally explodes. You better believe I’ll hammer him finally getting in the end-zone at a nice +108 price.

Lamar Jackson Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Normally I’m not so giddy about betting on Lamar Jackson passing stats. Usually it’s about something he does with his legs.

That changes this week, however, as he faces a very beatable Tennessee Titans pass defense. The Titans come into week 11 allowing the 6th most passing yards to quarterbacks, and they’ve also been pretty stingy against quarterbacks on the ground.

Things set up nicely for Jackson to have a big day through the air, and this 218.5 yardage mark feels pretty tame.

This is one reason why I love Jackson as one of my top daily fantasy football picks for week 11.

Aaron Rodgers Under 287.5 Passing Yards (-115)

It’s a weird week when you’re betting on Lamar Jackson to exceed a passing yardage total, but going the other way against Aaron Rodgers.

Yet here we are.

I love what A-Rod has done this year, but this feels like a high total against a very good Indianapolis Colts defense on the road.

As in, they’ve allowed the fewest passing yards to quarterbacks in 2020. I still have the Packers in my week 11 NFL upset picks just because they’re a good team at value, but I doubt they get the win from Rodgers just shredding the best pass defense in the league.

Dalvin Cook to Score First Touchdown (+400)

Lastly, we can aim high a bit with Dalvin Cook.

He was held in check last week by a solid Chicago Bears defense, but it feels like a pretty safe bet that he will bounce back against the Dallas Cowboys this week.

Unsure? Just consider that Dallas has given up the second most rushing yards in the league to running backs this year, as well as eight scores on the ground.

Cook didn’t score last week, but that was literally the first game of the season where he didn’t find the end-zone. He has 12 scores as a runner on the year, and it’s fairly safe to say he’s adding another this week.

He’s been so good that some have been saying he has a case for NFL MVP.

You can play it safer by merely betting on a score at any time (-213), but I like the odds of Cook getting the first touchdown of the game at +400. Dallas has not been good offensively, and their defense really has no hopes of stifling Cook, either.

Summary

I love all five of these week 11 NFL player props. Some offer reasonable safety, and a couple offer really nice betting value.

My NFL player props bets have mostly been good lately, so here’s to hoping you can benefit from them once again this week.

Props are just part of the battle when trying to make money from betting on the NFL. For a little extra week 11 insight, check out some of the links below.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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