Best NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 1, 2020

| September 10, 2020 10:46 am PDT

My favorite time of year is here, as pro football is back, and we get to see grown men beat each other into bits. I honestly get plenty of that from betting on the UFC, but with football, we get it with a little more finesse.

It also is quite arguably much more fun to bet on the NFL, as it’s a little more predictable, and there tend to be more ways to maximize your betting value.

One great way to do that is to bet on NFL player props. I already opened the door to the madness that is 2020 NFL betting by breaking down the best week one Thursday Night Football player prop bets, but that was a condensed situation with just one game as the focus.

Now we get to pull the lens back on an entire week of football, which really allows bettors to pinpoint the safest plays, as well as the high upside wagers that are truly worth the risk.

With that, let’s not waste any more time. Join me as I break down the best week 1 NFL player props to target at the best online sportsbooks.

Dalvin Cook Over 76+ Rushing Yards (-115)

The main goal of the first week of NFL betting action – particularly in this weird 2020 season – is to profit. I will certainly try to seek value when it makes sense, and there are always situations that demand a little risk, but you want as many bets to convert as possible.

One that feels fantastic and is still a really nice price is Dalvin Cook topping 76 rushing yards in week one.

The Vikings are at home and favored to beat the visiting Packers. Their best path to a win is to carve up a Green Bay run defense that ranked 23rd against the run in 2019.

The Packers only faced Cook once last year, but he destroyed them, rushing for 154 yards. That is double the target of this prop bet, while Cook also safely topped this proposed mark seven times last season.

Cook has had an ongoing contract dispute, so if he’s randomly out or limited, obviously there is a concern. He doesn’t sound like a guy who is going to sit or be limited, though.

Given his talent, role, and the matchup, this feels like one of the best week one NFL player prop bets out there.

I still like Green Bay in my Packers vs. Vikings betting pick, but Cook will eat in this matchup.

Hayden Hurst Over 43+ Receiving Yards (-114)

Want a slightly better price? Bank on Hayden Hurst’s Atlanta Falcons debut being a productive one. He honestly doesn’t even need to smash, either. He just needs to be out there and not be terrible.

Hurst is a very athletic tight end and a better than advertised pass-catcher. His main issue in Baltimore was a bevy of tight ends keeping him from a concrete role.

In Atlanta, he’s the guy. Austin Hooper left in free agency, and the Falcons have had nothing but praise for Hurst’s ability to get open and make plays.

Matt Ryan loves to target his tight end, too. Hooper topped this mild yardage mark nine times in 2019 and crushed it in week one of last year. He also hung 65 yards on Seattle, who Atlanta faces again in week one.

In fact, the Seahawks struggled against tight ends, in general, a year ago. Seattle’s pass defense isn’t as good as it once was, while this unit quietly allowed the second most receiving yards to tight ends.

This is a low bar for Hurst in his first start with the Falcons, and it looks like a bet that should convert in week one.

Joe Burrow Over 251+ Passing Yards (-116)

If you’re wondering where I’m getting these awesome prices, look no further than Sportsbetting.ag. Not only do they have some of the best week one NFL player prop bets you can find, but the odds are also fantastic.

Some wagers are going to be riskier than others, but I love the price for Burrow to put up a modest 251+ passing yards in his NFL debut.

Pro debuts tend to go amazing, or downright terrible. Burrow is an elite passing prospect, and while he hasn’t had the regular offseason to get acclimated, he’s entering a high-upside system with a plethora of weapons.

Whether out of dominance or necessity, I think he tears it up a bit in his first NFL outing. Let’s not forget that the Chargers are without stud safety Derwin James, either.

Burrow could slice up the Bolts early, but what’s more likely is he and his Bengals fall behind and he spends much of the second half airing it out. No matter the route, though, 251 yards isn’t a tall bar given his talent, and his solid supporting cast.

Terry McLaurin Over 99+ Receiving Yards (+254)

I’ve given you three NFL player prop bets I deem pretty safe for week one, so let’s roll the dice here and get creative. DeSean Jackson is admittedly the guy people would flock to when you look at props for the first week, but I am all about “Scary Terry” here.

Game flow aids McLaurin here (we think), as the Eagles are sizable favorites. Washington should trail throughout this game, but even if they don’t, it’s really hard to fathom McLaurin not having his way with Philly’s secondary.

Philadelphia did get proactive in trading for Darius Slay this offseason, but he wasn’t as good as his reputation suggests last year. He could lose McLaurin in the chaos a few times, anyways, especially since McLaurin popped off twice against the Eagles, going for 125 and 130 receiving yards in this matchup.

And that was as a rookie, folks.

McLaurin is better, he’s had more time to iron out the wrinkles with Dwayne Haskins, and Haskins has a specialty – the deep ball. Everything works in McLaurin’s favor here, and I think he makes it 3/3 in dropping 100+ receiving yards on the Eagles.

Tyrod Taylor Over 34+ Rushing Yards (-116)

I’ll stay in that Chargers vs. Bengals game for my last NFL player prop for week one. While I think Burrow will be forced to take it to the air quite a bit in week one, I am betting Tyrod Taylor will have his own type of success.

Some will surely come through the air against a terrible Bengals defense, but Taylor is one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in football. I also tend to think that after years of the immobile Philip Rivers under center, L.A. wouldn’t mind utilizing their quarterback on some designed runs.

Taylor has literally the best matchup he could hope for, too. Cincinnati was bad on defense in 2019, but they specifically had major issues slowing down quarterbacks that could run.

It’s a heck of a thing to play Lamar Jackson twice, I guess, but the Bengals still ranked dead last in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Nobody allowed more quarterback rushes, either, while the Bengals tied for the most rushing scores given up to passers.

Tyrod Taylor is going to ball out in week one, and for a guy who topped this yardage mark seven times in his last full season as a starter, I like his chances to do it again here.

Summary

There is so much to bet on in the NFL in week one. You can bet on the games themselves, you can play daily fantasy football, and/or you can bet on NFL futures.

Props are probably more fun than anything else, however, and there is a nice mixture of “safe” and “high upside” plays to target.

I’ve handed out my five NFL player props I love for week one, and hopefully, they can help you profit to get 2020 going. Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Enjoy the games!

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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