Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5 of the 2021 NFL Season
I had some bad luck with my player prop bets last week. Mike Davis went over his carry’s projection by one, while I was within 10 yards of correctly picking Kyler Murray’s rushing yards and Aaron Rodgers passing yards.
Sometimes, luck just isn’t on your side. But, we keep moving forward and remain confident in our picks. That’s exactly what I’ll be doing for my Week 5 selections.
With better results ahead, here are my favorite player prop bets for Week 5.
Malcolm Brown Under 29.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)
Myles Gaskin came into the season as the Miami Dolphins lead back. However, we’re beginning to see a changing of the guard.
Malcolm Brown out-snapped Gaskin 35-12 last week. In turn, Brown had eight carries compared to just two for Gaskin. It appears Brown is the new lead back in Miami. Even so, I don’t have much confidence in Brown this week.
They won’t go too far, but it’s still a road game as the Dolphins take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It has become common knowledge that you don’t run on the Tampa Bay defense.
Last week, the New England Patriots didn’t even try to establish a run-game. They ended the game with eight carries for -1 yard.
Miami can at least try but I can’t imagine they’ll have a lot of success.
While Brown looks like the lead back, Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed still have a role. Gaskin is the receiving back, which is important because the Dolphins are (+10) point underdog this week. Tampa Bay is one of the top picks against the spread.
Making this player prop bet scrimmage yards gives us some insurance. Brown has four receiving yards through four games. Without the volume, I can’t imagine Brown hitting 29.5 scrimmage yards.
Robert Tonyan Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Last season, Robert Tonyan broke out with 11 touchdowns. Because of his lack of receptions, everyone knew he couldn’t sustain that pace. Through four games, we’ve seen his numbers fall off a cliff.
- Week 1: 8 receiving yards
- Week 2: 52 receiving yards
- Week 3: 6 receiving yards
- Week 4: 8 receiving yards
That’s three games with less than 10 receiving yards. I don’t know how you can have faith in someone posting those numbers.
Tonyan will look to get back on track with a road matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati’s defense has done a good job of limiting tight ends this season. Tyler Conklin is the only one to have more than 30 yards against them.
Even without the tough matchup, Tonyan just isn’t a big part of the Green Bay Packers offense. Davante Adams and Randell Cobb are the top two wide receivers, while Aaron Jones has a lot of work out of the backfield as a receiver.
I wouldn’t rule out a touchdown for Tonyan this week, but I don’t see him racking up over 32.5 yards. Until he has another game over 10 yards, it’s hard for me to have any confidence in him.
Davis Mills Under 197.5 Passing Yards (-115)
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That’s the motto I’m going with this week for Davis Mills.
Last week, I correctly predicted that Davis Mills wouldn’t hit 206.5 passing yards. Well, Mills wasn’t even close as he passed for 87 yards and four interceptions against the Buffalo Bills. Now, Mills will take on the New England Patriots defense.
Buffalo has the league’s best pass defense, but New England isn’t far behind in fourth.
Then, there is Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks. He has 22 wins to just six losses against them in his career. Check out what the defense did to Zach Wilson in Week 2.
- 210 passing yards
- 0 touchdowns
- 4 interceptions
Wilson has struggled this season, but Mills has been even worse. I’d say the only wide receiver he can rely on is Brandin Cooks. We’ll likely see J.C. Jackson shadow Cooks.
In my mind, the only hope Mills has of achieving this mark is garbage time. The Houston Texans offense is just so bad right now and I’m not seeing any signs of hope with Mills at the helm.
Add in an elite Patriots secondary, and there’s little chance Mills hits 197.5 passing yards.
Sam Darnold Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
I will admit, I was wrong about Sam Darnold. I didn’t think the move to the Carolina Panthers would do much for his game. However, we’ve seen him establish himself as a franchise quarterback.
He has a chance to lead Carolina to a 4-1 record with a victory this week over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Early in the season, I felt the Panthers would ease Darnold into action and lean on star running back Christian McCaffrey. However, they immediately gave Darnold the keys to the offense.
Check out his passing attempts in each game.
- Week 1: 35 attempts
- Week 2: 38 attempts
- Week 3: 34 attempts
- Week 4: 39 attempts
Am I missing something here? Why is Darnold’s projection at 32.5 despite never attempting fewer than 34 passes in a game this season?
The only thing that I can think of is the Eagles defense is top five against the pass and second to last against the run. I’m sure that’ll play a factor, but Carolina wants to pass.
Carolina is a (-3.0) point favorite, so they are a good bet to beat the Eagles.
I don’t see the Panthers going run-heavy with a backup running back. Darnold will use his arm a lot in this matchup.
Henry Ruggs Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The 2020 first-round pick had a disappointing rookie season, but the Las Vegas Raiders made it known Henry Ruggs would have a bigger role in the offense this season. Ruggs isn’t the top target, but the Raiders are taking advantage of his speed.
Surprisingly, Ruggs leads the Raiders with 297 receiving yards this season. A big reason for that is his big-play ability.
His speed allows him to beat any corner or safety over the top. His longest reception has been at least 35 yards in three of the four games this season.
When it comes to receiving yards, Ruggs has gone over this projection three times. In the game he didn’t, he recorded 46 yards. Imagine the heartbreak if he posted that number.
Typically, you won’t see Ruggs have six or seven receptions. However, his big-play ability makes it so he can beat this projection with one catch. That’s all it takes.
Las Vegas’ opponent, the Chicago Bears, have allowed five players to have a reception over 30 yards. Ruggs has a great chance to join that group.
That should lead to him clearing 46.5 receiving yards.
My Top NFL Player Prop Bet for Week 5
- Tyreek Hill Under 89.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Last week, Tyreek Hill reminded us why he is the best deep threat in the league. However, we’ve seen the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers hold him down this season.
Against the Buffalo Bills last season, Hill had just 20 yards. They made a conscientious effort to stop Hill and make someone else beat them. I expect a similar game plan this week.
If you want more betting insight for Week 5, check out the following articles.