Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 14, 2020

| December 11, 2020 9:44 am PDT

Week 14 brings another fun week of NFL action into our lives. Ideally it isn’t derailed by COVID-19 and forced to stretch into Tuesday again, but I welcome it, all the same.

There are a slew of very engaging games on the week 14 NFL schedule, and it’ll understandably drive up betting interest.

Things are pretty tense from the jump with the Patriots and Rams facing off on Thursday, and we get eight more games where both teams facing off have a shot at the playoffs.

You can bet on the games, or you can just predict how the players will perform. I’ve been handing out NFL player props each week, and it’s largely gone well.

Check out the hits from last week.

  • David Montgomery Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
  • Ryan Tannehill Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)

The funny thing is my other two props were very close to hitting. Taysom Hill didn’t score on the ground, but did fire in two touchdowns through the air.

Nick Chubb didn’t rush for 85 yards like I needed him to, but had 80 and sat most of the fourth quarter in an easy win for the Browns. The logic was there, but ultimately I’ll have to accept breaking even.

The goal is to win more than that, so for my week 14 NFL player props, I’ll up the number of picks to five prop bets. Let’s see which NFL player prop bets I am digging for week 14.

Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+150)

Brady and his loaded Buccaneers offense have been somewhat held in check lately. They got smoked by the Saints a few weeks back, and after crushing the Panthers, have lost two games in a row.

If you believe in narratives, how about this one; the Bucs are 7-5 and are dangerously close to slipping out of the NFC playoff race completely.

Yeah, not great.

It seems unlikely Brady will stand for that, and a beatable Vikings team presents a mouth-watering matchup. Brady has put up three or more passing scores five times in 2020, and this is the type of matchup where you should bet on him doing so again.

Minnesota got torched by Andy Dalton of all people, and has allowed the 6th most passing scores on the season. Brady to get three at +150 feels like an amazing prop to chase in week 14.

Dalvin Cook Under 76 Rushing Yards (-115)

On the other side of that game between the Vikings and Buccaneers is Dalvin Cook. Normally he’d be a lock to top a modest rushing yardage total like this, but I’m not feeling it this week.

For one, the Vikings are sizable underdogs. Most NFL betting websites price them as +245 dogs with a 6.5-point spread.

Also, defenses have keyed in him more lately. His role gives him a good shot at this based on sheer volume, but he needed 27+ carries to get over 100+ yards in two of his last three games.

In one game (against Carolina), he rushed for just 61 yards.

Oh, and the Buccaneers literally have the nastiest run defense in all of football. This is a front seven that terrorizes ball carries, having allowed just 614 yards to running backs all season long.

If there was a time to bet on Cook having a down week, this is it.

Davante Adams Over 7.5 Receptions (+110)

One guy that seems as can’t miss as anyone in the NFL is Davante Adams. He’s such a massive part of what Green Bay does offensively, and in week 14 he’s got a pretty good matchup against a bad Lions defense.

Detroit seemingly got a jolt of energy from the firing of head coach Matt Patricia last week, but they still gave up 30 points to the Bears. Chicago’s top wide receiver (Allen Robinson) had little trouble hanging six catches and 75 yards on them off of seven targets.

Had Chicago not run the ball so well, it’s possible he could have done a lot more damage.

Adams has a more defined role in his offense. He’s seen 10+ targets in seven games, and he’s topped this specific reception total mark five times (10 catches last week).

Dude is on another level.

Given his huge role and the positive matchup, there’s no harm in giving it a go again at this +110 price.

David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

I talked about the Bears running game, so let’s go back to that and see if bettors can’t find something to exploit.

David Montgomery has been misused and/or under-utilized through his Bears tenure, but he’s finally taken flight a bit in 2020.

He’s specifically popped off in the last two weeks with 175 rushing yards and three total touchdowns. I think he keeps the magic coming in week 14, as he faces a dreadful Texans run defense.

Chicago would be wise to force-feed their top rusher here, as Houston literally ranks dead last against the run on the season. Montgomery is not your usual elite running back – and the Bears never do what they should – but this is as smashy as a spot can get.

Derrick Henry Over 103.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

It seems there are a lot of ways to make money betting on week 14 NFL player props that concern rushing yardage totals.

One more could be via Derrick Henry. He hit a wall last week against the Browns, but has otherwise been fantastic with 100+ yards in seven contests (including four of his last six).

Henry has a killer matchup on paper this week, as he faces a bad Jaguars defense that ranks 28th against the run.

They’ve honestly only gotten worse, as they have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs of any team in the NFL over the last four weeks.

Henry should be licking his chops here, while the guy also happens to have quite the history in this matchup.

Summary

One mistake people tend to make is to target NFL player props they want to. The better strategy may be to simply go after the props that have a better chance of winning.

I know, that sounds really obvious, but bias is a thing in sports betting. Eliminate it the best you can, and it’ll help you in the long run.

For week 14, I like three rushing props, and then we can target a passing touchdown wager, and a reception bet. I like their chances, and the prices are also very nice.

This is just some advice for NFL player props in week 14, though. For more betting insight, hit the links below.

Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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