Best Matchups Bets for the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open

| February 2, 2021 11:40 am PDT

Of all the ways to get money down on this week’s PGA Tour event, the betting value is most apparent within the H2H matchups. Specifically, if you shop your lines and take advantage of all the price discrepancies.

Trying to pinpoint the winner in Scottsdale is a difficult proposition – it requires beating 131 other golfers. It’s a bit easier to project a player beating one other guy.

For more on my top Waste Management Phoenix Open head-to-head picks, check out the snippets below.

Brendon Todd vs. Michael Thompson

Brendon Todd-140
Michael Thompson+120

In this Georgia vs. Alabama matchup, I’m taking the Crimson Tide.

Despite Brendon Todd’s career resurgence toward the end of 2019, he’s still a bit of a “hit or miss” when he tees it up on tour. Brendon’s tallied just two top-25s among his last eight starts, and his course history at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is rather bleak.

  • 2012 – MC
  • 2016 – T56

Flip the coin, and Michael Thompson has been much more dependable as of late. On top of connecting on each of his last eight cuts, Thompson arrives in his hometown state on the heels of four straight top-25s.

These guys have fairly similar games, Thompson’s just playing a bit better at the moment.

  • Michael Thompson

Emiliano Grillo vs. James Hahn

Emiliano Grillo-126
James Hahn+106

Both of these guys missed the cut last week at Torrey Pines and will be looking to bounce back. Given their track records at this venue combined with what they’ve been up to this season, I like Hahn’s outlook for redemption quite a bit more.

Hahn clocks in 7th on tour in driving accuracy and 17th in GIR and his short game is a lot more sound than Grillo’s. James has compiled three top-10s this season, Emiliano has recorded just one.

And here’s another indicator that backing Hahn at +106 makes this one of the best Waste Management Phoenix Open matchup picks.

James has racked up a trio of top-17 finishes at the WMPO, plus he finished 25th here in 2020. Compare that to what Grillo has achieved in the Grand Canyon State.

Emiliano Grillo at the Phoenix Open – By the Numbers
Year Result
2020 MC
2019 T33
2018 T57
2017 T63
2016 T45

Not very inspiring. I’ll take Hahn at +106.

  • James Hahn

Rickie Fowler vs. Gary Woodland

Rickie Fowler-145
Gary Woodland+125

This is a battle between the 2018 and 2019 champions of this event. We know both of these guys share an affinity for this golf course, so let’s set that aside and zero in on current form and trends.

Rickie is still searching to find a consistent rhythm, as evidenced in his game log. Fowler’s delivered zero top-20 finishes during his last 10 starts and doesn’t look comfortable on the greens. The once ultra-reliable putter is now using a mallet and sits 173rd on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting. In fact, Rickie has ditched most of the equipment that helped him evolve into a top-10 player and looks to be starting from scratch.

While Fowler has been busy tinkering, Gary Woodland’s focus has been on getting his body healthy. Gary recently announced he is finally pain-free – and it’s already paying off on the links with a 16th-place showing at The American Express.

I’d back Woodland against Fowler happily at +110 – his +125 price tag at BetUS makes this a “green-light special.”

  • Gary Woodland

More Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks

Want to erase some of the toughest obstacles that stand in the way of most golf bettors making money?

By locking these Waste Management Phoenix Open head-to-head picks, the bookies lay the juice for you. Instead of worrying about your picks winning the golf tournament on Sunday, they just have to beat the individual they’re matched up against.

Still, craving more action this week in Scottsdale?

I’ve got you covered with the following posts.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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