Best Matchups Bets for the 2021 Valero Texas Open

| March 31, 2021 8:40 am PDT

Before we start firing on the action at Augusta, there’s some business to tend to in San Antonio. The initial release of Valero Texas Open matchup bets has opened the door to several +EV situations. Three of which are simply too juicy to ignore.

Let’s explore.

Jordan Spieth vs. Tony Finau

Jordan Spieth+115
Tony Finau-135

Following the news of Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal, the best sites for golf betting had to scramble and readjust their pricing. The latest set of odds for the VTO display Jordan Spieth as the favorite (+1100), while Tony Finau is among the pair next in line (Scottie Scheffler) sitting at +1400.

So why the heck is Jordan sitting at +115 in his H2H matchup with Tony?

Perhaps it’s due to his large range of outcomes, but is his range really that large this week at the Oaks Course? Among his last six starts, Spieth has hung up a trio of top-4s; he also finished 15th at the Genesis Invitational and just won his group play in Austin (T9). He’s driving it with confidence and is back to controlling the distance of his irons – it’s hard to envision the Texas native not being on page one of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Finau’s rock-solid in his own right, but he’s a definite fade in this spot.

Tony missed the cut in his last stroke play event (THE PLAYERS) and failed to break 70 the last time he was here (T61 in 2019). Finau looked all out of sorts at the outset of the WGC Match Play – playing +4 golf thru 13 holes en route to getting pummeled by Dylan Frittelli.

  • Jordan Spieth

Kyoung-Hoon Lee vs. Graeme McDowell  

Kyoung-Hoon Lee-125
Graeme McDowell+105

Graeme McDowell enters the Valero Texas Open with positive vibes brewing. On the heels of a top-5 at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship, the cunning Irishman is a good bet to parlay that finish into another good week.

McDowell is a perfect 3-3 at TPC San Antonio. He finished 7th at the 2019 VTO carding just five bogeys all week.

Flip the coin, and who knows what to expect from Kyoung-Hoon Lee. The 29-year-old South Korean popped in Phoenix when he landed T2, but take a close look at what Lee has been up to since.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee’s Last Four Starts
Date Tournament Scores Result
2/21/21 The Genesis Invitational 70-72-79-72 66
3/7/21 Arnold Palmer Invitational 71-78 MC
3/14/21 THE PLAYERS Championship 72-71-71-72 T41
3/21/21 The Honda Classic 72-73 MC

12 straight rounds without breaking 70, and we’re supposed to lay -125 that he beats Graeme McDowell?

No thanks.

  • Graeme McDowell

Hideki Matsuyama vs. Abraham Ancer

Hideki Matsuyama-120
Abraham Ancer+100

Abraham Ancer’s last three events have all been massive (2 WGCs and THE PLAYERS). The good news is their significance hasn’t fazed him – he’s finished 22nd or better in each.

A missed 8-footer in a playoff against Kevin Streelman (to advance out of the group stage) left a sour taste in Abe’s mouth at the Match Play, but look for him to get back on the horse this week. Ranked 2nd in Driving Accuracy and 14th in GIR – a little wind at the Oaks Course should be right in Ancer’s wheelhouse.

Hideki Matsuyama is also a fantastic ball-striker, but he hasn’t been nearly as sharp as Ancer as of late. Matsuyama clocks in 71st in Driving Accuracy and 76th in GIR; he’s coming off an MC at TPC Sawgrass and a T42 in Austin. His putting woes have been well documented and remain unsolved.

All things considered, latching onto Abe at even money makes this one of the best Valero Texas Open matchup picks on the board.

  • Abraham Ancer

More Valero Texas Open Picks for 2021

There are lots of ways to bet on the Valero Texas Open. Think about locking in the head-to-head picks that are featured above, but don’t stop there.

There are sleepers to consider and top-10 and top-20 bets to take advantage of. And don’t forget about the GPPs on DraftKings that have six-figure prize pools.

Use the posts below to start dabbling into the other markets. 

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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