Best Matchups Bets for the 2021 Sony Open
Last week’s results are a perfect example of why targeting “plus-money” matchups are the way to go when you’re betting golf online. Case in point – my three selections in Maui went 1-1-1, and yet and I still was able to score a profit.
I cashed in on Justin Thomas (+115) over Dustin Johnson and didn’t lay any juice in the other bets.
With the 144-man field at Waialae locked and loaded for Thursday’s opening round, it’s time to attack the best Sony Open head-to-head picks. I’ve got three in mind.
Sebastian Munoz vs. Brian Harman
I’ve been touting Sebastian Munoz all week long and see no reason to stop here. Munoz is coming off a brilliant final three days in Kapalua (19 birdies, 1 bogey) and cracked the top-10 in his debut in Honolulu (2019).
Armed with four top-20s among his last six starts, all signs are pointing toward the 28-year-old Colombian getting into contention this week.
Brian Harman has a good record at this venue overall – although he did miss the cut here in 2019 and finished outside of the top 30 in 2020. Making his first competitive start in a little more than a month, I’m giving the slight edge to Munoz in this matchup.
Getting “+102” on my money – that’s just the cherry on top.
Jason Kokrak vs. Marc Leishman
There’s a reason Jason Kokrak has only played in the Sony Open once since 2015 (T47 in 2018), and I can assure you it’s not because he dislikes the Aloha State.
Jason is a bomber who likes to air the driver out. In other words, the layout at Waialae Country Club doesn’t exactly suit his eye. Flip the coin, and you’ll see that Marc Leishman is licking his chops every time he arrives in the capital of Hawaii.
“Leish” is a perfect 11-11 at the Sony Open and paced the field here last year in SG: Approach.
Considering where this pair landed at last week’s Sentry TOC (Kokrak T35, Leishman T24), I’ll go on record saying this is one of the most “mispriced” matchup bets for the Sony Open.
Sepp Straka vs. Stewart Cink
This won’t be among the most popular Sony Open head-to-head picks, but I don’t care about “popular.” I care about uncovering value. And that’s where the winner of the 2020 Safeway Open comes in.
Stewart Cink has always looked for an edge in his PGA Tour career. Statistics and a new caddie seem to be working in his favor. https://t.co/XpNxp0YtoT— Golfweek (@golfweek) January 6, 2021
Cink opened with 68-62 en route to logging a top-20 the last time he was in Honolulu (2019). In fact, Stewart played in every edition of the Sony Open between 2014-2019 without finishing worse than T42.
Meanwhile, Straka will be making just his third start at Waialae. He missed the cut in 2019 and finished T53 in 2020.
Similar to Kokrak, Straka is a long-hitter who I’d expect to thrive at long golf courses with four par-5s. Unfortunately for Sepp, the track this week features just two par 5s, one of which the entire field can easily reach. Prospering around here is more about playing the correct angles and exhibiting a good short game.
Frankly, it seems like Cink is the one who should have been installed at -120 in this matchup.
More Sony Open Picks
Are you ready to lock in this trio of Sony Open matchup picks? You can find head-to-head wagers at most of the top sites, although the three on this page were plucked from SportsBetting.ag.
For those who’d rather dabble in fantasy golf or simply bet on a winner, I’ll leave you with some additional betting content.