Best Matchups Bets for the 2021 American Express

| January 19, 2021 10:00 am PST

After another productive week attacking plus-money matchups, let’s keep the train moving along. No pro-am and the absence of La Quinta CC (I love the back-to-back par-5s on the front nine) gives the atmosphere in the desert a bit of a different feel, but as they say.

The show must go.

The lack of celebrities hacking the fairways at PGA West isn’t going to stop me from making American Express head-to-head picks. Specifically given all of the value that’s staring us in the face.

Paul Casey vs. Charles Howell III

Paul Casey-130
Charles Howell III+110

Paul Casey is a world-class player who finished 21st at the 2020 American Express. However, Paul showed up to La Quinta last season, displaying solid form. Casey was coming off nabbing a top-20 in Maui and a top-5 just prior at the Emirates Australian Open.

In this instance, the 43-year-old Englishman hasn’t teed it up in more than two months. In fact, here’s what Casey’s game log looks like since the 2020 US Open.

Date Tournament Result
11/12-11/15 Masters T38
10/22-10/25 Zozo Championship T35
10/15-10/18 CJ Cup T69
10/8-10/11 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open MC

Far from inspiring.

On the flip side, Charles Howell III ranked 2nd in GIR last week (61/72 GIR) and clearly has his game in order (top-30s in each of his last three starts). Howell carded just one bogey at the Sony Open and has a stellar record at this event. I’m happy to latch on at +110 and call this one of the best matchup picks for The American Express.

Pick
  • Charles Howell III
    +110

Brenden Steele vs. Michael Thompson

Brenden Steele-130
Michael Thompson+110

Don’t assume you can trust Brenden Steele this week just because he played well at Waialae. Brenden had gone five straight events without cracking the top-60 and has been fairly lackluster in the desert during the last two seasons.

  • T43 at the 2020 American Express
  • T57 at the 2019 American Express

Remember, Steele slept on the 54-hole lead in Honolulu last season as well (ultimately lost in a playoff) but was unable to parlay his good form into the AmEx.  

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Michael Thompson finished T9 at the 2019 American Express and has been playing extremely dependable golf as of late. 25th or better in three straight starts, including in each of the last two weeks in Hawaii. No missed cuts since August.

Pick
  • Michael Thompson
    +110

Chez Reavie vs. Keegan Bradley

Chez Reavie+120
Keegan Bradley-140

If I’m going to target Keegan Bradley when I’m betting golf online, it’s going to be at a tough golf course that places a premium on driving the golf ball. It’s certainly not going to be at PGA West with minimal wind – an environment that typically turns into a putting contest.

Perhaps there’s a reason Keegan has skipped this event in each of the last three seasons.

Flip the coin, and Chez Reavie has been here every year since 2015. From 2016-2019, the ASU alum was 56-under-par at this event with a couple of top-20s.

If there’s one thing, I’ve learned from watching this event play out in the past, prospering this week is going to come down to dialing in your wedges and converting putts inside 15 feet.

With that in mind, +120 on Reavie against Bradley is too juicy to pass up.

Pick
  • Chez Reavie
    +120

More American Express Picks

If you want to make money betting golf this week, aggressively betting American Express matchup picks is my #1 recommendation.

Of course, picking a winner and playing DFS golf on DraftKings will help spice up the action as well. When you’re ready to move on to the other betting arenas, use the following posts to help get you started.

Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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