Best Horse Racing Bets for Friday, July 30, 2021

| July 29, 2021 11:16 pm PDT

The morning line at all three tracks I chose for my Friday picks—Monmouth Park, Penn National Race Course, and Pimlico Race Course—had some pretty convincing arguments to make, and I found myself agreeing with them much more often than usual.

On the other hand, I found some deep-undercover underdogs to tout, particularly at Pimlico, where I found a couple of sleepers that should keep our bankrolls happy for at least the immediate future.

Good luck!

My Friday Picks for Monmouth Park

We’ll start with race one, a 1-1/16 miles claiming race on the turf course for three-year-olds and upward. I like the second-favored (at 3/1) Lion Charmer, with top jockey Paco Lopez in the irons.

This five-year-old finished in the money 13 of his 21 career starts, winning two. For comparison, the morning-line favorite moneyed three of his ten starts, with two wins.

I’ll agree that two wins in 21 starts isn’t as good as two in ten, but on the other hand, showing up for payday three times in ten smacks of a sincere lack of ambition. In situations like that, I’ll always bet the horse that punches in the most often.

Robert R. O’Connor II trains Lion Charmer for owners Bruce McCrae and Dennis M. Bush.

We’re back on the main track for race three, a six-furlong starter optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. I agree with the morning line on this one, and I’m buying a win ticket on the 5/2 favorite, Kalu, ridden by veteran jockey Jose C. Ferrer.

This five-year-old gelding moneyed 16 of his 12 career starts, winning seven.

Ranked in the top 100 trainers for both wins and earnings in 2020, J. Kent Sweezey works Kalu for RyZan Sun Racing, LLC.

Race five takes us back to the turf course for a claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward. My money’s on the third-favored (at 4/1) Hokkaido, with Mychel J. Sanchez aboard.

This three-year-old filly finished in the money twice in her four career starts, winning one, giving her a statistical edge in this nine-horse field of underachievers.

Ranked highly for both wins and earnings for the past few years, Kathleen A. DeMasi trains Hokkaido for Mina Von Voss.

Friday Picks for Penn National Race Course

We’re starting on the turf course with race two, a mile-and-70-yards claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward. The morning lines called it; this race belongs to the 8/5 favorite, Life On the Edge, ridden by top jockey Julio A. Hernandez.

This four-year-old filly finished in the money seven of her 22 career starts, winning four.

Not impressive, to be sure, but her nearest competition—the second-favored Justin Time—moneyed only nine of her 25 starts, winning only three.

Mark V. Salvaggio trains Life On the Edge for Kenwood Racing LLC.

For race six—a one-mile main track allowance race for Pennsylvania-bred three-year-olds and upward—I’m betting my two dollars on the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Rolling Palisades, piloted by veteran jockey Angel R. Rodriguez.

This four-year-old gelding finished ten of his 18 career starts in the money, winning four of them.

Veteran trainer Brandon L. Kulp works Rolling Palisades for Pops Racing Stable.

Let’s switch back to the main track for race eight, a one-mile allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward. I’m backing the 5/1 underdog, Lady Commissioner, with Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons.

This four-year-old filly moneyed four of her five career starts, winning three—her most recent three, in fact—one at Belmont Park, one at Laurel Park, and the latest here at Penn National.

Brandon L. Kulp trains Lady Commissioner for Joseph E. Besecker.

Friday’s Picks for Pimlico Race Course

Let’s start on the main track for race five, a six-panel starter optional claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward. My money’s on the 3/1 morning-line favorite: Butter Pecan, with top jockey Jaime Rodriguez aboard.

This three-year-old filly finished in the money three of her four career starts, winning one, which gives her an edge in this nine-horse field, as does the pilotage of Rodriguez.

Carlos A. Mancilla trains Butter Pecan for Michael Scheffres.

Moving to the turf course for race six—a five-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds—I’m calling this race for one of the two 5/1 underdogs: Kenny Had a Notion, ridden by Jorge Ruiz.

Although most of the competitors in this nine-horse field have campaigned in stakes races, this three-year-old gelding has proven to be the most successful at it.

Of his nine career starts, five of his six money finishes were in stakes matches, and three of his four wins were likewise in Black Type stakes runs, including the Jamestown Stakes in October, the Maryland Million Nursery Stakes later that same month, and the Spectacular Bid Stakes this past January. He’ll do.

Dale Capuano trains Kenny Had a Notion for owners Louis J. Ulman and H. Neil Glasser.

We’re on the main track for race seven, a six-furlong allowance race for Maryland-bred or -sired fillies and mares three years old and upward. I’m buying a win ticket on the 6/1 sleeper, She’sarollingstone, ridden by Horacio Karamanos.

This three-year-old filly won her single career start in June here at Pimlico. Toss in a jockey with over 15,000 professional rides on his record (along with some solid wins/WPS percentages), and you’ve got yourself a winner.

40-year racing veteran Damon R. Dilodovico trains She’sarollingstone for Rosalee C. Davison. Dilodovico tapped Karamanos to saddle She’sarollingstone for her maiden victory.

J.W. Paine
J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

More Posts by J.W. Contact J.W.

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