Best Horse Racing Bets for Saturday, February 13, 2021
I went with yesterday’s choices for tracks to review, mostly because two of them are hosting a total of seven stakes races—two of which are prep races on the 2021 Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Charles Town Races was the one track with no stakes races, but I like CTR, so there you have it.
That said, Fair Grounds Race Course more than made up for that with a 13-race card that included six stakes races, the last one being the Risen Star Stakes, a Grade II stakes match with a whopping 50 points to give the winning Kentucky Derby hopeful.
And let’s not forget Golden Gate Fields, which headlines the El Camino Real Derby, a Listed stakes race that also awards RTTKD points to the top four finishers.
As you can see, there’s plenty to cover, so let’s move right on to the summary of my racing picks and predictions for Saturday, February 13, 2021.
Saturday’s Predictions for Charles Town Races
- Race 3: Hypothesis 4/1 (win)
- Race 5: Bold Valor 7/2 (win)
- Race 5: Wallet 12/1 (show, if starts)
- Race 7: Golden Appeal 5/2 (win)
I found a couple of likely underdogs (race 3 and 7), with the most lucrative being the fourth-favored (4/1) entry in race 3.
I went with the morning line favorite for the win in race 5 but then managed to uncover a 12/1 also-eligible for a value show bet. And don’t forget that second-favored win pick in race 7.
Learn the statistics behind my picks for the three top races at Charles Town Races on Saturday.
My Saturday Picks and Predictions for Fair Grounds Race Course
- Race 7: Extravagant Kid 5/2 (win)
- Race 7: Captivating Moon 12/1 (show)
- Race 9: Secret Message 5/2 (win)
- Race 9: Dreamalildreamofu 20/1 (show)
- Race 10: Maxfield 4/5 (win)
- Race 11: Logical Myth 9/2 (win)
- Race 11: Captivating Moon 15/1 (show)
- Race 12: Travel Column 2/1 (win)
- Race 13: Keepmeinmind 3/1 (win)
- Race 13: Sermononthemount 50/1 (show)
It doesn’t take a calculus major to see that the morning line favorites in virtually all of the six stakes races at Fair Grounds are the most likely winners. And I agreed with the morning line in all but race 11, where I went out on a limb and called it for the second-favored entry.
By the way: That entry of Captivating Moon in both the ungraded Colonel Powers Stakes and the Fair Grounds Stakes (Grade III) is not a misprint. And I like him for a show bet, whichever of the two he starts.
Naturally, the big race is the last one, the Grade II Risen Star Stakes (aka race 13), where a number of Kentucky Derby hopefuls are hoping for a huge jump in Road the Kentucky Derby standings—the Risen Star Stakes is the first on the 2021 RTTKD that awards 50 points to the winner (top four finishers are awarded 50, 20, 10 and 5 points, respectively).
For reference, Keepmeinmind, the 3/1 favorite to win this year’s Risen Star, is currently in second place on the RTTKD scoreboard with 18 points. A win here would put him far and away at the top of the scoreboard.
There are also a couple of longshot value show tickets to consider—a 20/1 in race 9 (the ungraded Albert M. Stall Memorial Stakes) and a 50/1 longshot in the Risen Star Stakes.
Discover the whys and wherefores of all my picks and predictions in the six stakes races at Fair Grounds Race Course on Saturday.
Saturday Predictions for Golden Gate Fields
- Race 5: Klondike Creek 5/1 (win)
- Race 7: Sadie Bluegrass 9/5 (win)
- Race 8: Petruchio 3/1 (win)
- Race 8: It’s My House 20/1 (show)
I found more underdogs to like at Golden Gate Fields, including a fourth-favored entry in race 5 and a third-favored entry in the El Camino Real Stakes (race 8).
Bear in mind that while the El Camino Real Stakes is a Listed stakes race rather than a graded one, it is part of the 2021 Road to the Kentucky derby competition and awards RTTKD points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1, respectively).
Incidentally, I also found a likely value show bet in the El Camino Stakes—a 20/1 longshot that could easily finish in the money.
Get the full story behind my picks and predictions for Saturday’s three richest races at Golden Gate Fields.