Best Horse Racing Bets for Wednesday, April 21, 2021

| April 21, 2021 3:03 am PDT

For Wednesday’s betting recommendations, I’ve chosen a mixed bag of wagers at all three of the following racecourses: Indiana Grand, Keeneland, and Penn National.

You can bet on horse racing events at any one of our top online racebooks. We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s move right along.

Good luck!

My Wednesday Picks at Indiana Grand Race Course

Odds are tight among the four morning-line picks in race four, but I think I’ll stick with the 5/2 favorite, Cap de Fuego, for this eight-furlong sprint. In the irons will be veteran jockey Santo Sanjur, who’s been aboard Cap de Fuego for many of his career runs, including his latest three.

Cap de Fuego has finished in the money in everything from maiden and allowance races to the Governor’s Stakes (Black Type) — all at Indiana Grand Race Course.

Also a regular at Indiana Grand is his trainer, Antonio Duran, who’s taken other students to victory, including Mai Tai’s Gem in the 2019 Indiana Futurity.

The morning line doesn’t think much of five of the seven horses in race six, and I’m inclined to agree. My win ticket recommendation is for the 6/5 favorite, Vivid Verse, ridden in this race by veteran jockey Emmanuel Esquivel. While the five-year-old gelding spent most of last year on turf, he’s no stranger to success on dirt, winning a seven-furlong dirt run at Churchill Downs last September.

Vivid Verse is trained by Cipriano Contreras, who also owns him via his Contreras Stable, Inc.

Contreras was in the top 50 thoroughbred trainers in both wins and earnings in 2019.

They have three horses in race eight between Duran and Contreras, with Contreras’ single entry, Betsdownletsride, the odds-on favorite at 4/5. Duran’s two entries — Cielo Azul and Bandido de Amores — are at 4/1 and 8/1, respectively.

While I agree that it’s most likely that the heavy favorite Betsdownletsride can win this race, I actually see a sleeper just as likely: The 15/1 El Bohemio, trained by Genaro Garcia and ridden for this race by Marcelino Pedroza. My recommendation here: Buy a win ticket on Betsdownletsride, but buy some insurance with a show bet on El Bohemio.

Keeneland Race Course Picks

It’s all about the grass for my picks at Keeneland, starting with race one — a mile-and-a-half turf run. I see no surprises here — it’ll be the 9/5 morning line favorite, Yamato, across the finish line first, ridden by top jockey Florent Geroux. This five-year-old under training with Murat Sancal has solid speed figures and good times in recent workouts.

The only surprise in race one could be the 30/1 entry, Crown the Prince, ridden by Alice Beckman and trained by Ronald Keith Kinmon. It’s not often you see a horse enter a race with more experience than his jockey (the horse has five career starts, Beckman has four). Still, Beckman has been aboard Crown the Prince for two of his races, one of which was his graduation run. At 30/1, I think this pair is worth a two-dollar show ticket, at the very least.

In race three — a maiden special weight run — It’s all too easy to see the competition as more between the jockeys than it is a contest between three-year-old thoroughbreds. However, in this race, despite the likes of Tyler Gaffalione, Luis Saez, and Chris Landeros in the irons, I think the 8/1 sleeper Prairie has a real shot at a win.

He’ll be ridden by Miguel Mena, who’s been aboard Prairie for all four of his career starts — and all three of his money finishes.

By the way, Prairie’s trainer, Albert M. Stall, Jr., has been among the top trainers in wins and earnings since 2005.

If race seven ends up switching to the main track, Joel Rosario will be aboard either the 9/5 Tiz Splendid News or the 2/1 American West. Both are also-eligibles (MTO).

If the race stays on turf, my money is on the 7/2 Go Big Green, trained by top-ranked Thomas M. Amoss and ridden for this race by James Graham. On the other hand, if either of the MTOs are in the starting gate, bet them to win.

For the record, Tiz Splendid News moneyed four of his five career starts, while American West moneyed both of his. Either of them is a horse Joel Rosario can get to the wire ahead of the herd.

Picks for Wednesday’s Penn National Race Course

Two sets of coupled entries get us off to a tangled for the six-panel race three at Penn National. I say tangled, but in reality, the choice here is simple: Bet the 5/2 morning line favorite, Dontmesawithsister, trained by top-ranked Flint W. Stites and ridden here by Vladimir Diaz.

But there’s a big “unless” here. Often one of the coupled entries makes for an interesting show bet because you get two chances to make money for the price of one.

Still, in this case, it’s unlikely any of the four coupled entries could finish in the money, with the possible exception of Cape Desiderato.

The 1/1A horses list both the same jockey and the same trainer, but only Cape Desiderato has the record to prove he can beat the favorite. So bet him to win if given the opportunity.

Race six is a much longer mile and 70 yards, and it brings us not two but three coupled entries, with the 3/3X entry being the morning line’s 8/5 favorite. Still, it looks as though only one of the 3/3X entries will actually start the race, but that should be enough since both the #3 horses, under training with Jamie Ness, have solid credentials.

Spring Emperor moneyed well over half his 55 career starts and has good speed figures and good times in recent workouts to fill out his CV. On the other hand, Jamminwithbrandon moneyed exactly half his 32 career starts. They are both standouts in this field of rather lackluster competitors.

In race eight, I have to stick with the morning line’s 3/1 favorite, Dirty Girl, with Jorge L. Vargas, Jr. in the irons. While I can’t vouch for any particular jockeying skills to Vargas, I can say that trainer Timothy C. Kreiser has the multi-year chops in both wins and earnings to balance the scales in Dirty Girl’s favor. For the record, Dirty Girl has moneyed nearly two-thirds of her 32 career starts.

On the minus side, she ducked out near the stretch in a late March claiming race and lost her rider. On the plus side, she returned in early April to win another claiming race. Fortunately for her, the rest of the ladies in this field have even less impressive career records.

J.W. Paine
J.W. Paine

J.W. Paine is one of the most experienced writers at GamblingSites.com. He's written for television and the printed media, and is a published novelist (as Tom Elliott).

Paine loves writing about Las Vegas nearly as much he loves living here. An experienced gambler, he's especially familiar with thoroughbred horseracing, poker, blackjack, and slots.

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