Best Bets for South Africa vs. The Lions in the Third Test

| August 6, 2021 7:19 am PDT

The series is on the line when the British and Irish Lions vs. South Africa kick off this Saturday, August 7, in Cape Town.

The touring party’s 27-9 humbling in the second test make the hosts the slight favorites for the decider. You can find the latest odds for South Africa vs. The Lions on our top sites for betting on rugby, but stick me as I will be covering the best of them below.

I’ll also be providing my betting pick for who wins the third test between the British and Irish Lions vs. South Africa, the lineup for both teams, and the top bets for the final match of the tour.

Keep reading, and we’ll get to it.

British and Irish Lions vs. South Africa Third Test Details

  • When: Saturday, August 7
  • Kick-Off: 5pm BST; 6pm SAST; 12pm EST
  • Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)

If you fancy a bet on the Lions to beat South Africa in the third test this weekend, it’s worth noting that the team’s coach Warren Gatland has shaken things up ahead of the final match of the series.

The former Wales coach has made six changes to the side that lost in the second test. Liam Williams, Josh Adams, Bundee Aki, Ali Price, Wyn Jones, and Ken Owens start in place of Stuart Hogg, Anthony Watson, Chris Harris, Conor Murray, Luke Cowan-Dickie, and Mako Vunipola.

The South Africa team to play the Lions in the third match will look slightly different, with Franco Mostert changing positions from lock to open-side flank. Pieter-Steph du Toit misses out with injury, opening up a position for Lood de Jager to jump in at 5 alongside Eben Etzebeth in the second row.

Faf de Klerk makes way for Cobus Reinach at 9, which indicates the home team’s intentions to muscle up and buckle down.

Lions Team to Play South Africa

  • 15. Liam Williams (Wales)
  • 14. Josh Adams (Wales)
  • 13. Robbie Henshaw (Ireland)
  • 12. Bundee Aki (Ireland)
  • 11. Duhan van der Merwe (Scotland)
  • 10. Dan Biggar (Wales)
  • 9. Ali Price (Scotland)
  • 8. Jack Conan (Ireland)
  • 7. Tom Curry (England)
  • 6. Courtney Lawes (England)
  • 5. Alun Wyn Jones (Wales)
  • 4. Maro Itoje (England)
  • 3. Tadhg Furlong (Ireland)
  • 2. Ken Owens (Wales)
  • 1. Wyn Jones (Wales)

    Replacements

  • 16. Luke Cowan-Dickie (England)
  • 17. Mako Vunipola (England)
  • 18. Kyle Sinckler (England)
  • 19. Adam Beard (Wales)
  • 20. Sam Simmonds (England)
  • 21. Conor Murray (Ireland)
  • 22. Finn Russell (Scotland)
  • 23. Elliot Daly (England)

South Africa Team to Play South Africa

  • 15. Willie le Roux (Toyota Verblitz)
  • 14. Cheslin Kolbe (Toulouse)
  • 13. Lukhanyo Am (Cell C Sharks)
  • 12. Damian de Allende (Munster)
  • 11. Makazole Mapimpi (Cell C Sharks)
  • 10. Handré Pollard (vice-captain, Montpellier)
  • 9. Cobus Reinach (Montpellier)
  • 8. Jasper Wiese (Leicester Tigers)
  • 7. Franco Mostert (Honda Heat)
  • 6. Siya Kolisi (captain, Cell C Sharks)
  • 5. Lood de Jager (Sale Sharks)
  • 4. Eben Etzebeth (Toulon)
  • 3. Frans Malherbe (DHL Stormers)
  • 2. Bongi Mbonambi (DHL Stormers)
  • 1. Steven Kitshoff (DHL Stormers)

    Replacements

  • 16. Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears)
  • 17. Trevor Nyakane (Vodacom Bulls)
  • 18. Vincent Koch (Saracens)
  • 19. Marco van Staden (Vodacom Bulls)
  • 20. Kwagga Smith (Yamaha Jubilo)
  • 21. Herschel Jantjies (DHL Stormers)
  • 22. Morné Steyn (Vodacom Bulls)
  • 23. Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers)

South Africa vs. The Lions Odds for the Third Test

South Africa to Win-150
British and Irish Lions to Win+137
Draw+2200

South Africa’s odds to beat The British and Irish Lions is a pretty tasty -150.

The Springboks had full control of the second test in what was a pretty dull affair. With Gatland’s low-risk changes, I don’t expect much roar from the Lions, making the hosts the team to beat on the day. 

The odds for the Lions to win the third test in Cape Town are nowhere near good enough for me.

Battered and bruised from last week’s loss in the second test, don’t expect them to suddenly find a way to outmuscle the world champions’ physically dominant pack.

Gatland and his squad look powerless to prevent 2021 from being added to the Springboks’ tour wins over the Lions.

History of Test Between South Africa and The Lions
1980 1997 2009
South Africa 26-24 The Lions South Africa 16-25 The Lions South Africa 26-21 The Lions
South Africa 26-19 The Lions South Africa 15-18 The Lions South Africa 28-25 The Lions
South Africa 12-10 The Lions South Africa 35-16 The Lions South Africa 9-28 The Lions
South Africa 13-17 The Lions
Winner: South Africa Winner: The Lions Winner: South Africa

Best Bets for the Lions vs. South Africa (Third Test)

South Africa to Win-150
Man of the Match – Any Back+137
South Africa -8.5 Points+190
South Africa 11-20 Points+320
Any South Africa Player to Outscore the Lions+400

A win for the home team is the best bet to place on the Lions vs. South Africa in the third test. 

Mathieu Raynal of France will referee the third test, so expect to hear the whistle a lot more. With South Africa’s dominance in the air, I can see the Lions getting very frustrated and giving away a lot of penalties.

Springbok fly-half Hendre Pollard’s goal-kicking efforts could see him pick up the man of the match. With Cheslin Kolbe also in the frame, there is value on a back to be awarded as the top man.

South Africa should have the beating of this very one-dimensional Lions team. Duhan van der Merwe, in particular, looks exploitable on the wing, while the slightly cold props will have a hard time in the scrum. Therefore, South Africa by -8.5 points is also a good bet at +190.

I don’t see the Lions crossing the whitewash often, so any South African to outscore the team is one of the best value bets for the British and Irish Lions third test.

Can the Lions Beat South Africa and Win the Series?

It will take something special or some absolute madness on behalf of the hosts for the Lions to win this test.

Neither are factors that I would feel comfortable betting on.

Thus, my betting pick for South Africa vs. The Lions in the third test is the home team winning their fourth series over the touring squad. 

I just don’t see how Gatland’s conservative approach will work in what should be another arm-wrestle. Sure, we have Liam Williams and Josh Adams coming in at the back, but van der Merwe’s place on the wing is absolutely baffling.

There has been absolutely no creative flair in this series whatsoever, and both teams’ negative approaches are unlikely to change in the deciding game. But ultimately, that suits the hosts down to the ground.

More than just working through the phases, I actually think we could see the Springboks build on their efforts in the second test. They won’t deviate too far from the strategy that won them that match and will still look to dominate the aerial battle. But they have more weapons in their arsenal than their opponents.

I expect another brutally physical game that will be decided, for the most part, by penalties. But as the Lions tire, I think we could see South Africa put a real score on them.

  • Prediction for South Africa vs. The British and Irish Lions: South Africa 15+ Points

Wrap Up

The moneyline odds for South Africa to beat The British and Irish Lions this weekend look very appealing.

Still, I think there is scope to be a little more adventurous with your Springboks vs. Lions bets for the third test. For the most part, British and Irish fans are not inspired by Gatland’s team selection, and I’m certainly in the same boat. 

Feel free to go over some of my betting tips for the match. As I see it, South Africa should win this one fairly comfortably, so there is a chance to capitalize on some of the top props and specials for the Lions vs. South Africa.

That’s all for now. If you’re looking for more picks for this weekend’s sport, make sure to check out the following section of our site.

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

More Posts by Adam Contact Adam

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