Belmont Park Picks – Friday, October 2, 2020

Friday’s fare at Belmont Park includes the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes, an ungraded stakes race offering a $100,000 purse for New York two-year-olds. I take a look at that stakes race and two of the richest allowance matches at Belmont today.

Read on for my Belmont Park picks and betting tips for Friday, October 2, 2020.

This is an allowance race for three-year-olds and upward running a distance of 1-1/4 miles on turf for a purse of $65,000.

I agree with the morning line: Whichever horse Jose L. Ortiz is riding, bet that horse to win. And that’s not just because Ortiz is one of the best jockeys riding today. Whether this race is on turf or the main track, the horses he is slated to ride have the best records.

On turf, you’ll want to bet the 5/2 Doswell, a five-year-old gelding who broke his maiden back in August after multiple second-place finishes in previous attempts.

And on the main track, (or for whatever reason Ortiz winds up at the starting gate aboard the 2/1 Advance Notice), you’ll be pleased your money is on a three-year-old colt that broke his maiden his first (and only) career start.

The long-odds entries in this race are just that—unlikely to do much of anything but make your two-dollar show bet disappear. Just say no.

This is an allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds running a distance of 1-1/16 miles on turf for a purse of $65,000.

On the turf, I like the second-favored (4/1) entry in this race—Irish Mias, with Mannie Franco in the irons. This three-year-old gelding moneyed five of his nine career starts, winning one. I think his ability could be underestimated here because many of his starts have been in stakes races, where his competition can be counted on to be a cut above the regular maiden, claiming, and allowance races.

On the main track, I like the 9/2 Forza di Oro, with Junior Alvarado aboard.  This three-year-old colt has no starts on record this year, but he moneyed two of his three career starts in 2019, winning one of them.

With the number of competitive horses and jockeys in this race, I don’t see any of the longer-odds entries finishing in the money.

This is the ungraded Bertram F. Bongard Stakes, a race for New York-foaled two-year-olds running a distance of seven furlongs for a purse of $100,000.

I like the second-favored (5/2) Thin White Duke, ridden by Mannie Franco. This gelding moneyed all five of his career starts, winning one of them. More interestingly, that single win was in the Funny Cide Stakes (Black Type) at Saratoga several weeks ago. Also, Thin White Duke forced Eagle Orb—the morning line favorite for this stakes race—to take a second-place finish in the Funny Cide Stakes.  

No long-odds opportunities in this race, I’m afraid.

Belmont Park continues to be withholding on the long-odds surprises I like, but you’ll find that the other tracks I’ve reviewed for today’s races aren’t quite so stingy: