Baylor Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders – College Football, November 14, 2020

Dave Aranda is feeling the pain. Four straight losses have Baylor anxious to get things underway in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are 2-5 after getting spanked in their last two games.

We know it’ll be a couple of desperate programs taking the field this weekend at Jones AT&T Stadium, but who’s going to emerge in this Big 12 matchup?

Let’s sort that out with a Baylor vs. Texas Tech prediction.

The Red Raiders opened as a 1.5-point favorite but have swung to a 1-point underdog at a few of the top football betting sites. At the majority of sportsbooks, this is simply a good-old-fashioned Pick’Em.

It’s worth noting that Baylor is an even 2-2-1 against the spread in 2020. Texas Tech has been far less reliable covering just twice in seven games.

Running the Football. I knew Dave Aranda was brought in mainly to shore up the defense, but little did I know the team in Waco would suddenly become inept at running the football.

Just how bad is Baylor’s running game?

88.0 rushing yards per game and a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry. Both rank dead last in the conference – even below the wretched Jayhawks.

Charlie Brewer can only be asked to do so much for the Bears, and senior running backs John Lovett and Trestan just aren’t getting it done. Baylor lost RS freshman Craig Williams for the season to a knee injury and is now in dire straits.

Baylor LB Terrel Bernard, RB Craig Williams out for remainder of the season | @destine_gibsonhttps://t.co/eqdMEscc6O

— SportsDayDFW (@SportsDayDFW) November 9, 2020

Pass Defense. Without a doubt, the biggest precaution from backing the Red Raiders in a Baylor vs. Texas Tech pick is having to stomach Matt Wells’ defense. Specifically, a pass defense that allows a Big 12-worst 301.1 passing yards per game.

Tech is yielding 40.1 points per game and permitting opponents to convert over 42% of their third downs.

To make matters worse, the competence of Wells – the former HC at Utah State from 2013-2018 – is now being questioned.

Texas Tech, down 9, just went for a FG on 2nd down and missed wide left. #Big12 pic.twitter.com/mT3fMZ6fDT

— Dean Straka (@DWStraka49) November 7, 2020

To be blunt – this defense can’t afford to have their head honcho committing blatant errors like that.

As highlighted within my Big 12 predictions, this game sets up well for the Bears. Texas Tech typically thrives on airing the football out. Baylor just so happens to be excellent against the pass.

And while the Bears ineptitude in the running game was referenced above, I’d be remiss if I didn’t allude to the Red Raiders porous front seven. A total of 10 sacks through seven games – coupled with a secondary that has accumulated just three interceptions.

Baylor isn’t very good, but I think they’ll be a bit better than Texas Tech on Saturday.

There’s only one other game being played this weekend in the Big 12 – a matchup between the Horned Frogs and the Mountaineers in Morgantown.

Perhaps you’re interested in parlaying a Baylor vs. Texas Tech prediction with a bet on TCU or West Virginia. Speaking of parlays, take a peek at the value that’s lurking in Pullman and Lexington.