Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos Prediction – NFL, Week 4 (2021)

| September 29, 2021 10:48 am PDT

Justin Tucker’s 66-yard field goal as time expired at Ford Field was incredible. It was the headline of week 3’s NFL action. Truth be told, the headline should have been, “Lions stun the Ravens.”

Tucker should have never even had that opportunity, given what happened on the prior play.

Just before Tucker took the field to attempt the 66-yard kick, the refs unforgivably missed a blatant delay of game penalty on Lamar Jackson. Had the penalty been called, it’s likely the Ravens would have opted for a Hail Mary rather than attempt a 71-yard field goal.

In any case, Baltimore heads to Mile High after a thrilling victory in Detroit. Let’s break down the matchup and work our way toward a Ravens vs. Broncos pick.

Ravens vs. Broncos Odds

Ravens (+1)-105
Broncos (-1)-115
Ravens to Win+100
Broncos to Win-120
Over 44-110
Under 44-110

The look-ahead line in Vegas was Baltimore -1.5. Then week 3 happened.

The Ravens nearly blew it in Detroit, and the Broncos were relentless. The top-rated NFL betting apps took notice and flipped the script; Denver’s now laying 1.5 points at most of the top mobile betting sites. I found the line at Broncos -1 at BetOnline.

While the sample size is still small, it’s worth noting that the Ravens have failed to cover the spread in two of their three games. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Broncos are 3-0 against the spread and are tied for the NFL lead-in-point differential (+50).

Considering this game is virtually a toss-up at betting sites, let’s ponder how each team can emerge.

Why the Ravens Will Win

After bottling up their opponents, the Broncos have the league’s number-one ranked defense through the first three weeks. Denver fans can smile knowing their team has surrendered a measly 8.7 points per contest. However, Vic Fangio’s men have faced Daniel Jones and a couple of poorly-coached rookie quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson).

Sunday’s test against Lamar Jackson is an entirely different beast.

Jackson’s big, strong, explosive, and he’s got a lively arm. As a runner, he simply can’t be contained.

Lamar Jackson – Running Wild Through Three Weeks
Opponent Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards Yards/Carry
@ Raiders 12 86 7.2
vs. Chiefs 16 107 6.7
@ Lions 7 58 8.3

Fourth among all NFL players in rushing yards through the first three weeks, game planning for Jackson is especially difficult the first time around. Working in Baltimore’s favor, Sunday’s week 4 tilt marks the first time that either Vic Fangio or Ed Donatell (Broncos DC) have matched up against Lamar.

This could spell major trouble for the Broncos this weekend, not to mention that Denver was dealt another crushing blow regarding their receiving corps. First, it was Jerry Jeudy going down, now the Broncos have learned that KJ Hamler is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Why the Broncos Will Win

Ranked third in the NFL in QBR, Teddy Bridgewater has been outstanding in his first year in Denver. Let me rephrase that.

Teddy Bridgewater is playing as efficiently as any signal-caller in football.

Teddy “Two Gloves”  is completing an NFL-high 76.8% of his passes and is yet to turn the ball over.

Playing with a chip on his shoulder, the well-traveled 28-year-old has adapted to a fluctuating supporting cast. So much for the days of being locked in a battle with Drew Lock for the starting gig.

While Bridgewater’s play has been a pleasant surprise, the fact that a Vic Fangio-coached team is playing superb defense is not. Despite being without Bradley Chubb for the next two months, Fangio is getting sincere contributions from the likes of Justin Strnad and Malik Reed. Justin Simmons is one of the best safeties in football, newcomer Kyler Fuller has been lights-out on the perimeter, and rookie CB Pat Surtain II is already making his mark.

Already with four sacks through three games, it’s evident that Von Miller has plenty left in the tank.

Denver clocks in third in the NFL in turnover differential, and they’re 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. Also boding well, the Ravens are 30th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (30.3%)

Ravens vs. Broncos Prediction

Before you lock in a Ravens vs. Broncos betting pick, remember that Denver’s three opponents are a combined 0-9 in 2021.

Nevertheless, we also shouldn’t forget that a deplorable missed call on the second-to-last play of the game is the only reason the Ravens aren’t 1-2. Had Baltimore lost to a Jared Goff-led squad this past weekend, how would the general public feel about the Ravens?

Playing at home in front of an invigorated crowd, I’m picking the Broncos to move to 4-0.

Ravens vs. Broncos Betting Pick

Don’t trust my Ravens vs. Broncos prediction? Have a peek at what ESPN’s Football Power Index has to say about this matchup.

ESPN Matchup Predictor
  • Ravens Win – 44.9%
  • Broncos Win – 54.7 %
  • Tie – 0.4%

Don’t get caught up in the “name brand” of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Focus on what Baltimore has accomplished away from Charm City.

They lost in Vegas, and they should’ve lost in Detroit. Traveling to Denver and escaping unscathed will be a lot easier said than done.

  • Broncos (-1)
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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