Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays – MLB, August 17th, 2021

| August 17, 2021 3:36 am PDT

The Tampa Bay Rays hope to stay hot on Tuesday, as they continue to work their way to the 2021 AL East title.

Tampa Bay has been in solid form lately, and are in good shape, three games ahead of the rival Red Sox. They’ll host another rival in the visiting Baltimore Orioles, who have yet to even get their 40th win on the year.

If you want to bet on this game – or are looking for a reason to – join me for my Orioles vs. Rays betting pick and prediction for August 17th, 2021.

Orioles vs. Rays Odds for August 17th

Orioles (+1.5)-125
Rays (-1.5)+105
Orioles to Win+180
Rays to Win-196
Over 8.5-105
Under 8.5-115

Tampa Bay enters Tuesday night as the obvious favorite. They’re 35-22 at home this year, they’re on a roll, they have everything to play for, and the O’s aren’t any good.

Baltimore has been stuck in a significant rut lately. They’re 21-41 on the road, too, and they’re going up against a loaded Tampa Bay lineup.

John Means gets the ball – and he’s the best arm they’ve got – and yet nobody should be getting cute with the Orioles in this spot.

BetOnline prices the Rays as a -196 home favorite, and there’s an argument that’s actually a bit of a steal. I’m personally not into chasing -200 moneylines, of course, so there has to be a more enticing bet.

I think there is, but it’s always worth breaking things down a bit more to be sure you find it.

Orioles vs. Rays Game Preview

Baltimore has been bad this year, but they pop off without much notice, and Means is a pretty talented pitcher. The southpaw is at least their best guy they can turn to, and he has a solid 22.9% K rate, and doesn’t walk batters habitually.

Means also sports a solid 3.21 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP on the year, and has miraculously gone 5-4 with this atrocious team behind him.

Of course, the recent form isn’t the best. Means gave up a jaw-dropping three home runs in his last outing and has been getting tagged quite a bit lately.

Take a look at his last five starts.

Opponent Hits Allowed Home Runs Earned Runs Result
Tigers 8 3 6 L, 6-4
Rays 8 0 1 L, 10-6
Tigers 4 1 1 W, 5-2
Nationals 5 1 4 W, 5-4
Rays 7 2 5 L, 9-3

Means hasn’t really gotten it done against the Rays specifically, either. He held them relatively in check the last time out, but he still has a weak 5.51 ERA against them in 2021.

Tampa Bay has slapped Means around to the tune of a .300 collective batting average and four homers this year (10 total runs) in three meetings. His fly ball and hard hit rates just leave him in a bad spot against this lineup.

The Rays obviously have Nelson Cruz to make things worse, so when you look at this matchup, the only good thing about it is the park factor.

Baltimore is down a key power bat in Ryan Mountcastle. They can bring the power at times, but overall, this shouldn’t be a unit that Drew Rasmussen has major difficulty with.

He probably won’t be asked to go too long into this game, anyways, which puts the O’s up against Tampa Bay’s nasty bullpen.

Add in the park downgrade for them, and the O’s don’t look to be in an advantageous spot on Tuesday.

Orioles vs. Rays Pick for August 17th

I don’t think anyone will scoff at the reality that all roads lead to the Rays. You can certainly “play it safe” and bet on the Rays at -196, but if I strike gold, I like to be paid in a similar fashion.

Tampa Bay isn’t some secret play on Tuesday. They have the edge across the board, they’re at home, and they should win. I think they’re totally viable at -196, but the real bet is undeniably the Rays to cover the -1.5 run line.

That can be a dicey proposition when betting on baseball, but this lineup can (and has) tattoo Means, and the Rays predictably have one of the better run differentials in all of baseball.

Unshockingly, Tampa Bay also has the sixth best ATS record when it comes to covering the run line.

All signs point to a Rays win, but bettors should be able to get that win at an underdog price.

Pick
  • Rays (-1.5)
    +105
Noah Davis
Noah Davis

Noah Davis is one of the more diverse writers at GamblingSites.com. Like many of his colleagues, he's a huge fan of both football and basketball. But he also writes about box office records, TV show prop bets, DFS, and all kinds of other subjects.

When it comes to the NFL, Noah's favorite team is the Cleveland Browns. He enjoys cheering them on with his wife and daughter.

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