Australia vs. Italy – Olympic Basketball, July 28, 2021

| July 27, 2021 7:55 am PDT

Looking to move to 2-0 in group play, both the Aussies and the Italians stroll into Wednesday’s contest with some positive vibes from their openers in Tokyo. Italy was extremely efficient on offense and came storming back against Germany. The Boomers kept the Nigerians at bay before delivering the final punch in the fourth quarter.

With a ticket to the knockout stage on the line, let’s dive into an Australia vs. Italy prediction.

Australia vs. Italy Odds 

Australia (-7.5)-115
Italy (+7.5)-105
Australia to Win-330
Italy to Win+275
Over 172.5-110
Under 172.5-110

From knocking off the Americans in Vegas to battering Nigeria by 17 on Sunday, Brian Goorjian has his troops firing on all cylinders. The best Olympic sportsbooks installed the Boomers as a 7.5-point favorite versus Italy, a number that’s more likely to jump to 8 than it is to fall to 7.

If you plan to fire a bet in on the total, shopping your lines is key. I’ve seen the number sitting anywhere from 171.5-173.5 across a handful of reputable sites.

With the pricing laid out, let’s work our way towards an Australia vs. Italy pick.

A Case to Bet on Australia

The Aussies had an off-shooting night (39.4%) and turned it over an uncharacteristic 21 times. Not only did they manage to beat Nigeria withstanding those shortcomings, they pounded them into the ground.

Patty Mills’ resurgence in Vegas stayed the course; the Spurs veteran point guard filled up the stat sheet on his way to posting a team-high 25 efficiency score.

Patty Mills Balled Out Against Nigeria
Points Assists Rebounds Steals 3-PT Shooting +/-
25 6 4 4 5/8 +20

Joe Ingles and Dante Exum both remained solid, and it was a great sign for Goorjian to see Nick Kay step up and provide a big boost (12-8-3). The Boomers have plenty of depth, their stars know who they are, and most importantly, they pride themselves on challenging the opposition defensively.

Australia is really good, arguably the best team in the entire tournament.

A Case to Bet on Italy

Armed with a potent starting five, Italy has the means to go toe-to-toe with Australia. Each member of Italy’s starting unit accounted for double-digit scoring against Germany thanks to shooting a combined 13/22 from beyond the arc.

What makes this team especially tough to guard is their versatility in the half-court set.

Danilo Gallinari made his presence felt with 18 points on 6/9 from the field while Simone Fontecchio dropped 20 on 7/13. The two hybrid forwards are interchangeable on both ends of the court and can hurt the opposition in a variety of ways. Shooting guard Stefano Tonut contributed 18, Nicolo Melli (13 points, 9 rebounds) was rock-solid in the middle, and Nico Mannion did a fine job setting the table for others (7 assists, 1 turnover).

Meo Sacchetti will need his top line to stay out of foul trouble, but if they do, they should be able to hang around.

Australia vs. Italy Prediction and Pick

After watching Germany outplay Italy for the first three quarters (Germany led 72-68 after the 3Q), I’m a bit wary about allocating any hard-earned money on the Italians.

On the flip side, the Aussies beat the Americans by 8, they routed Nigeria by 39, then they clobbered Nigeria again (by 17). The attention to detail is top-notch, credit to Brian Goorjian and the rest of his staff.

See where I’m going with this Australia vs. Italy betting pick?

The safe play is to head to BetOnline where the Boomers money-line price is the most favorable. The bold play is to lay the 7.5 points and hope the game is out of reach in the waning moments.

I’m in the mood to be bold.

Pick
  • Australia (-7.5)
    -115
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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