Austin Peay Governors vs. Eastern Kentucky Colonels – College Basketball, February 4, 2021
Who will come out as the boss when the Governors meet the Colonels in this all-Ohio Valley Conference game? Both teams have been excellent this season and occupy the second and fourth positions in the standings, although they have some way to go to catch the runaway leaders Belmont.
The Governors have edged the last five meetings between them, winning three and losing two. However, it’s the Colonels who won the most recent game just over a month ago. The Colonels started well and took a ten-point lead into the half time interval, and although the Governors battled bravely, they failed in their effort losing 75-80. The Governors have struggled in Kentucky, winning just one of their previous five visits there. Even then, this was a narrow two-point win after overtime.
The key to victory could be how well the Colonels shoot tonight. They have scored every one in two shots over the last ten games against the Governors, which is very impressive.
Here is my Governors vs. Colonel’s betting preview.
Governors vs. Colonels Odds
All of the early money has come for the Governors, and the spread has been slashed from five to three points. Although this is a relatively high total for a college basketball game, I still think it could be a point or two short of what it should be.
The Colonels have won eight of the previous nine matches that they have entered as the betting favorite.
The Governors followed up their first back-to-back defeats of the season with back to back wins in their last two games. They scored comfortable victories over Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville, which would have been expected. But what impressed me more was their previous game against Belmont. Although they lost that game 76-81, they pushed the runaway leaders all the ways, even leading at half time.
Austin Peay has been excellent on the road this season winning four of their five games. They have won the last three in a row, but none of the games were against decent teams.
Here are the latest betting trends for Austin Peay:
- Against The Spread
- They have won six of their last nine games.
- The Governors have only won one of their previous five games against the Colonels.
- Austin Peay is 2-8-1 in their last 11 games played in February.
- Points Total
- The total has gone under in 12 of their last 18 games.
- Their last five games on the road have all gone under the betting total.
The Governors have an average looking offense that likes to take the ball in as close as possible to make their baskets. This is probably because they are so poor at rebounding; they want to make sure they make their shots.
Their defense has a similar feel to it; however, they have rebounded much better in defense. They need to be busier in defense and get amongst their opponents more. This will lead to more steals per game as they currently have the third-lowest average in the league. They also have the lowest blocks count, which highlights this fact even more.
Terry Taylor leads many rankings for the Governors, but he will be hoping for a better performance this time around against the Colonels than his last game against them. He was down on most of his season’s stats and failed to shine in the big game.
The Venezuelan Carlos Paez also deserves mention as he has done a lot of the donkey work for his team this season, which sometimes goes unnoticed.
The Governors have no reported injuries for this game.
The Colonels are on a nine-game win streak right now and have shown resilience during that period. One of the things I like most about them is that when the chips are down, they show up. During the nine-game win streak, three of the games went into overtime, and they won them all. This was the case in their most recent win against a good Jacksonville State team. Although the game finished 73 all and the Colonels didn’t claim victory until the death winning 82-86, I always felt they were in control of the match. This was their second overtime win against Jacksonville State this season.
Despite winning so many close games, they still have a point per game difference of plus 13.
The Colonels have the best home record in the Conference, yes even better than Belmont’s. It’s perfect, as they have won all nine of their games this season.
Here are the latest betting trends for Eastern Kentucky:
- Against The Spread
- They have won 12 of their previous 16 games.
- The Colonels have only lost one of their last eight games played on a Thursday.
- Eastern Kentucky is 12-4-2 in their last 18 games when playing as the favorite.
- Points Total
- Five of their last six games have gone over the betting total.
- This is also the same record in their previous six games against the Governors.
The Colonels have the seventh-best offense in the country, averaging 84 points per game. They’re excellent at rebounding offensively, and while the rest of their attacking play isn’t exceptional, there isn’t anything they don’t do well.
They pass the ball well and control games by dominating possession. This leads to a high number of assists per game and a low number of turnovers.
Their defense is nowhere near as good, but they haven’t had to be. Because they attack in numbers, they tend to defend high, which saves energy from getting up and down the court all night but leaves them open in behind. It also means that they don’t make as many defensive rebounds.
But it does mean they make loads of steals each night, which has led them to be ranked first in the Conference for steals by some margin. They also force their opponents to turn the ball over, as their opponents average 26 turnovers against them, which is the third-highest in the country.
The other downside to this is they tend to make a high number of personal fouls as they struggle to get back to defend their basket at times.
They have defended much better at home, conceding on average seven fewer points per game than on the road.
Junior Brandon Knapper has made a significant impact recently, and if this kind of form continues, then the Colonels could start to press Belmount for the top spot in the Conference.
Eastern Kentucky has no absentees listed for this game.
Governors vs. Colonels Betting Pick
As obvious as it might sound, this game could come down to how well each team shoots on the night. The Governors had won all seven games when their opponents scored at 42% or less, while the Colonels have won all 13 of their games when they have restricted their opponents to a field goal percentage of 48% or less. Therefore, it seems it could be a difficult night for the Governors; as previously mentioned, the Colonels are scoring at 50% against them recently. I will go with the Colonels to make it ten wins in a row.
Colonels To Win-140