Pick and Prediction for Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester City on Wednesday, April 13

Manchester City’s boss Pep Guardiola criticized Atletico Madrid’s coach after their first duel in the Champions League quarterfinal. He called Diego Simeone’s strategy “prehistoric.” The reason? Simeone’s Atletico played super-defensive soccer, making zero attempts on Man City’s goal.

The Citizens did eventually break Atleti’s defense, winning the game 1-0. However, their plan was to blow-out Atleti so that they wouldn’t have to worry much about the second leg.

The reason why they should be concerned about the Leg 2 game is that it’s played in Madrid, where Atletico is going to have huge support coming from the stands of Wanda Metropolitano.

Simeone’s team will have the home advantage, but bookmakers don’t think it will matter much. Instead, they see Guardiola’s boys as the favorites.

10Bet is the online sportsbook that’s giving these odds and I can tell you that 1.80 is the best you can get on Manchester City. Most other betting sites are giving shorter odds on the visitors.

You might wonder why that is the case. After all, if the Citizens weren’t able to score more than once on their turf, how can they win on Atletico’s ground?

Well, the answer is simple. This time, Simeone’s team will have to attack – they’re the ones with a one-goal deficit.

Charging toward the opposition goal means leaving room for Man City’s counterattacks. With such pacey forwards as Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez, the Citizens could cause serious trouble to Atletico’s defense.

Guardiola accused Simeone of using a 5-5-0 strategy in the first leg without any ambitions of actually playing proper soccer. Simeone did put two forwards up in the front – Joao Felix and Antoine Griezmann – but they stayed mostly near the center of the pitch.

Pep Guardiola: "We sensed that they would play 5-3-2 but then they adjusted and became a 5-5-0. In pre-history, today and in a hundred thousand years, it's difficult to attack a 5-5-0, there's no space. They're strong, we're small and light. It's a matter of patience." pic.twitter.com/O2iQPnJord

— Football España (@footballespana_) April 6, 2022

Plus, when he subbed the two, he replaced them with two midfielders – Thomas Lemar and Angel Correa.

As a result, Atletico made no goal attempts in the game, while its players kept the ball in their possession for only about 32% of the time. In comparison, Manchester City made 15 goal chances that day. However, only one of those went in.

Losing just 1-0 to Manchester City might actually be a good result for Simeone. After all, that game was played at Etihad, where the Citizens won 17 of their 22 games played in the 2021-22 season.

The trouble is that in order for his plan to work, Simeone needs to see his team winning on Wednesday.  

Two billion dollars – that’s how much money Manchester City has spent on transfers since Sheik Mansour took over the club in 2008.

When you invest so much money, it’s only natural to expect a return on the investment. So far, the investment has paid off in England – Man City has won five Premier League titles and two FA Cups in the past 14 years.

However, the Citizens still don’t have a Champions League title in their trophy cabinet.

They did come very close to winning it last year, but Chelsea crushed their dreams in the final. This time, however, they’re sitting at the top of the favorites list as you can see below:

To get another shot at the title, they need to take care of Atletico Madrid first. The good news for them is that even a draw on Wednesday would mean booking a ticket to the Champions League semifinal.

My prediction is that Manchester City will advance to the next stage of the Champions League. However, I’m not so sure Pep’s team will win on Wednesday.

Rather than attacking with all they got, they might decide to let Atletico have the ball. Of course, Guardiola will change his strategy immediately if Atletico scores a goal, switching to an offensive style of play.

If such a scenario plays out, we could see goals galore at Wanda Metropolitano. That said, betting on “over 2.5” seems like a good option, especially knowing that the odds are longer than 2.00 at most soccer betting sites.