Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants – NFL, Week 3 (2021)

| September 24, 2021 6:49 am PDT

The good news is one of these two teams is going to pick up their first win of the season. The bad news is the other franchise will be sporting an 0-3 record and have their heads down heading into week 4. Unless, of course, this game ends up in a tie, but we know that’s highly unlikely.

As for what is likely to transpire Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, let’s take a look.

I’ll provide insight into the matchup and deliver my best Falcons vs. Giants betting pick.

Falcons vs. Giants Odds

Falcons (+3)-110
Giants (-3)-110
Falcons to Win+135
Giants to Win-160
Over 48-110
Under 48-110

As of mid-week, the Giants are favored by a field goal at all the top NFL betting sites. Even though New York is 0-2 and struggling, at least they were competitive in their last outing. And they’re well-rested after playing on Thursday night in week 2.

On the flip side, Atlanta just got whacked in Tampa Bay and has to travel north to East Rutherford. Their confidence has to be shaken, given how the year has started.

The Falcons were 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite in 2020.

Throw in Atlanta getting whacked by Philadelphia at home in week 1, and you’ll see why so many are cautious about backing the Falcons in week 3. According to ESPN’s spread consensus picks, 68% of the betting tickets have come in on the Giants.

Falcons Preview

To say it’s been a poor start for Arthur Smith in Atlanta would be quite an understatement. Losing against Philly and Tampa to start the year – ok, fine. But to get completely obliterated by the Eagles at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and then surrender 48 to the Bucs that spells trouble.

Through the first two weeks, Matt Ryan ranks 30th out of 32 quarterbacks in QBR.

Aside from the age model kicking in on Matt Ryan, Atlanta has no rushing game to speak of. Kyle Pitts will eventually get going, and Calvin Ridley should still pan out as one of the top-10 wideouts in fantasy. The problem is the Falcons have leaks at all three levels on defense and are among the most undisciplined groups in the league. In fact, Atlanta’s already leading the NFL with 23 enforced penalties.

This isn’t about hating the Falcons or trying to kick a man when he’s down. This is about laying it all on the table so that readers can confidently make a Falcons vs. Giants prediction.

Giants Preview

The Falcons have all sorts of problems, but so do the Giants. Looking at New York’s early-season schedule, one would have thought matchups against Teddy Bridgewater and Taylor Heinicke would be favorable for New York.

Not so much.

Bridgewater and Heinicke – two journeyman backups – each tossed two touchdowns and combined to complete nearly 76% of their throws (62/82) against New York’s defense. The Giants are allowing 300.0 passing yards per game and have just three sacks as a team.

The saving grace for G-Men supporters is that Daniel Jones is off to a promising start. Jones is using his legs as a weapon (15 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns) and is yet to throw a pick. Sterling Shepard also looks fresh as he’s currently tied for the league lead with 16 receptions.

Sterling Shepard – By the Numbers in 2021
Opponent Targets Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
@ Washington 10 9 94 0
vs. Denver 9 7 113 1

Unfortunately, Saquon Barkley doesn’t look like he’s fully recovered from his knee injury. Either that or he’s simply lost a step. Instead of hitting holes hard, the former 2nd-overall pick has often been found dancing behind the line of scrimmage, getting swarmed by defenders.

Falcons vs. Giants Prediction

We’ve seen the Giants make some plays on both sides of the ball. A silly offsides penalty cost them a shot at winning week 2 – that can be cleaned up. Atlanta looks like they need a complete overhaul.

I predict the Giants will win a sloppy game on Sunday.

While neither quarterback can currently be classified as efficient, Matt Ryan’s ceiling is capped at this point in his career. Other than finding Pitts in the seams or targeting Ridley in one-on-one matchups, Atlanta has little to offer on the offensive side of the ball. Their defense is a total mess.

While I’m not overly confident in this pick, New York appears to be more dependable than Atlanta. Plus, Atlanta’s on the road, and New York has an extra three days’ worth of rest.

Falcons vs. Giants Pick

The Falcons vs. Giants pick I recommended placing has nothing to do with who wins or who covers the spread. The Falcons vs. Giants bet I like is the over.

Neither of these teams can get off the field on third down. Both offenses have flashed their abilities to drive the ball down the field. With both quarterbacks looking to hit their respective stride, going up against these two secondaries is the perfect recipe to take off.

If this total breaches 49 or 50 by Sunday, backing the over now means you’ll beat the closing number. That’s the sign of an intelligent bettor.

Pick
  • Over 48
    -110
Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for GamblingSites.com on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

More Posts by Michael Contact Michael Michael on Twitter

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