Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints – NFL Week 11, 2020

By Admir Aljic in NFL
| November 16, 2020 3:45 pm PDT

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a bye week after recording a pair of wins over the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos. It seems that they didn’t need that break as they finally started to play well, but will have a chance to extend the winning run to three on Sunday against the divisional rivals Saints. Atlanta improved to a 3-6 record and is in 3rd position in the NFC South with four wins behind New Orleans.

The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, are one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment as they secured six consecutive wins. Following the most recent home victory over the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers, the Saints improved to a 7-2 record and climbed to the top of the NFC South and the entire NFC. Take a look at my Falcons vs. Saints betting pick.

Falcons vs. Saints Odds

Falcons +7-110
Saints -7-110
Falcons to win+195
Saints to win-238
Over 54.5-110
Under 54.5-110

Falcons Survived the Late Surge From the Broncos

The Atlanta Falcons almost dropped a big lead against the Denver Broncos at home but managed to secure a 34-27 victory in the end. Atlanta had a 20-3 lead at halftime and increased it to a 27-6 lead after the first three quarters, but the visitors scored three touchdowns in the final 15 minutes and even had a chance to tie the game with the last drive. Denver even totaled more yards (405-363), but thanks to a great offensive display in the opening half, the Falcons got a win.

Matt Ryan completed 25 of 35 passes for 284 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, while he also added ten rushing yards on three carries. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team in receiving yards with 103 yards and a TD on four catches, the best game of his young career. Hayden Hurst had 62 yards on seven receptions, Julio Jones added 54 yards and a score on five catches, while Brandon Powell caught his lone target for a 9-yard TD. Todd Gurley II posted 53 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun was dominant on defense with ten tackles (seven solos) and one sack.

The Falcons are the 14th team in the NFL when it comes to the offense with 27.0 points per game, 2nd in passing yards (290.0), 18th in rushing yards (106.8), while they have the 24th defense that allows 27.9 points per contest.

Saints Didn’t Have Trouble Beating the 49ers

The New Orleans Saints perhaps struggled to get on the scoreboard in the opening 15 minutes but they took over after at and recorded a 27-13 wins thanks to 17 points in the second quarter. They allowed just three points to the injury-depleted visitors, and the only bad take for this game was Drew Brees’ injury. Brees took a big hit late in the first half and it seemed he injured his ribs, so Jameis Winston stepped in and closed the game.

Brees completed eight of 13 passes for 76 yards and one touchdown, while Winston completed six of ten passes for 63 yards. Alvin Kamara caught that lone TD pass from Brees and contributed with 83 yards on seven receptions, while he also added two rushing touchdowns. Latavius Murray led the runners with 57 yards on nine attempts, while Taysom Hill had 45 yards on eight carries. When it comes to defense, Demario Davis dominated with 12 tackles (eight solos), one sack, and one defended the pass.

The Saints are the 4th team in the NFL when it comes to the offense with 30.1 points per game, 15th in passing yards (252.3), 12th in rushing yards (120.8), while they have the 14th defense that allows 23.7 points per contest.

Falcons vs. Saints Pick

Pick
  • Under 54.5
    -110

If Drew Brees is forced to miss this game with Atlanta, I expect the Saints to run the ball more, even though Winston is known as a great passer. However, Winston is also known for his numerous turnovers and interceptions, so I suppose Sean Payton will keep the ball on the ground and rely heavily on Kamara and Murray.

That being said, if Brees is out of this clash, feel free to go with Under, but if he is healthy and available, go with Over instead. That injury-related news will be closely monitored in the coming days.

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