Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs – NFL, Week 16, 2020

By Dean McHugh in NFL
| December 22, 2020 10:59 am PDT

The Falcons season is over, and all they are trying to do now is avoid the wooden spoon in the NFC South division. Their season has tailed off, and they have only won one of their last five games played.

The Chiefs have been strong all season as they look to defend their super bowl crown. They have won all but one of their 14 games to date.

The recent head-to-head history between the two is close, with the Falcons edging the last five games three to two, which includes the last game played at the Arrowhead Stadium, but that was all the way back in 2012. However, it’s the Chiefs that have won the most recent two games played.

Falcons vs. Chiefs Odds

Falcons +11.5-110
Chiefs -11.5-110
Falcons To Win+430
Chiefs To Win-550
Over 53.5 Points-112
Under 53.5 Points-110

The bookmakers are predicting an easy win for the Chiefs, and it’s hard to disagree with them. They also see it being an open, high-scoring game so let’s take a look at the breakdown.

Falcons Form

After losing their first five games of the season, the Falcons put on a resurgence winning four of their next six, but that has since been cut short as they have lost their last three in a row. To be fair to them, the three defeats were all close battles as they lost by five to the Saints, three to the Chargers, and four to the Buccaneers.

Their record at home and on the road both read two wins from six games. Their two away wins did come back to back recently as they posted wins against the Vikings and the Panthers. Since then, they have gone on to lose their next two.

Their games haven’t been particularly entertaining as of late as four of the last five have seen under the betting total as well as four of the last five on the road. However, the last five games against Kansas has seen over the betting total.

They have also done well betting against the spread on the road, recently winning seven of their last ten.

Statistically, they don’t match up too bad at all. They are certainly a team that likes to pass the ball as they are ranked fourth in the league for passing yards gained, but they only have four teams that have made fewer rushing yards than them this year. Quarterback Matt Ryan is having an exceptional season despite his team’s poor year as he has over 4000 passing yards to his name.

Their defense has seen the reverse of their offense as they have conceded just over 100 rushing yards per game, which is good, but there is only one team in the NFL that has conceded more passing yards than them. They are averaging just under 70% passing completion success against them, which is only slightly better than the two worst teams this year, the Jaguars and the Jets.

They have, however, forced the joint second-highest amount of fumbles in the league this year.

Chiefs Form

The Chiefs are looking to make it ten wins in a row when they welcome the Falcons to Kansas. They have been in sparkling form recently, picking up two impressive wins on the road against the Dolphins and the Saints.

Following a somewhat shock defeat to the Raiders back in October, they have bounced back to win their next three in a row on home soil.

Although they have plenty of wins to their name, they haven’t won any of their last five games against the spread recently. However, they have done well covering the spread at home as they have done so in ten of their last 13 home fixtures.

There have been plenty of points on the board in recent weeks as four of their last six games have seen over the betting total achieved. This is also the case when playing the Falcons, as the last five in a row has gone over the betting total.

Their attack has been phenomenal this season, averaging more yards gained than any other team in the league. They also top the league for passing yards gained and are averaging 31 points per game, which is the second-highest int the NFL.

Despite conceded a relatively high amount of yards against them, especially rushing yards, they still have the eighth-best defensive record this season.

They have the joint second-highest amount of interceptions in the league also, which has helped keep their passing success rate against them down at a very low 61%, which is only bettered by the Steelers and the Saints. Tyrann Mathieu has been a key figure to achieve so many interceptions as he has the third-highest in the league to date.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been the star for them this year as he leads the passing yards standings, having amassed 4462 yards, which is over 300 yards more than the second-placed DeShaun Watson.

Mahomes not only has one great receiver to find in Travis Kelce, but he also has two in Tyreek Hill as both players find themselves in the top five for receiving yards this year.

Falcons vs. Chiefs Pick

Pick
  • Falcons +11.5
    -110

This really will come down to a battle of the quarterbacks, and there is no doubt that Mahomes is leading the way, but it could be argued that he has better receivers to aim for. Matt Ryan has stood out despite his side’s poor form, and I am taking him to help the Falcons win with the handicap advantage.

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