Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers – NFL, October 5th, 2020

By Admir Aljic in NFL
| September 28, 2020 1:26 pm PDT

Starting out 0-3 is bad enough, but it’s the way Atlanta has done it that makes us shake our collective heads. Sure, we can cut them a little slack for losing to Seattle, but there are no excuses for blowing a 19-point half-time lead against Dallas and then following it up by blowing a 16-point third-quarter lead over Chicago.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Green Bay Packers have ridden a red-hot offense to a 3-0 start. And they’ve done it in convincing fashion. No, they haven’t been all that wonderful defensively, but who needs defense when you’re averaging over 40 points per game?

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

Atlanta Falcons +7.5-115
Green Bay Packers -7.5-105
Atlanta Falcons Moneyline+265
Green Bay Packers Moneyline-323
Over 58-108
Under 58-107

Backing an undefeated team against a winless team might seem like a no-brainer. However, the Falcons really aren’t as bad as their record indicates. The truth is that they could easily be 2-1. In that case, we’d likely see them being spotted less than a touchdown. But the reality is that they are 0-3 and they enter Week 4 as a 7.5-point dog.

Atlanta Falcons Analysis

By no means are the Falcons down for the count, but we’re all familiar with the curse of starting 0-4. Notching a victory on Monday Night Football could go a long way in making something positive happen. Atlanta has some very winnable games ahead of them including Minnesota, Detroit, Denver, and a pair against Carolina. But they are in no position to be looking ahead. Instead, they need to focus on the task at hand which is beating the Packers. Not only could it help save their season, it might also help save Dan Quinn’s job.

There’s no doubt that the Falcons can put up points. They’re averaging 30 points per game so far. It’s their defense that continues to be their Achilles heel. Atlanta has given up 36 points per game. That absolutely must change and change fast. But it’s a tall order facing Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying offense in Green Bay. Fortunately, Matt Ryan and company should be able to feast on a shaky Packers defense.

Green Bay Packers Analysis

Yes, a 3-0 start is certainly impressive. Aaron Rodgers is playing well and the Packers have been effective on the ground. We can expect Green Bay to pick apart a struggling Falcons defense. There’s no reason to believe that Green Bay can’t at least meet or exceed their season scoring average in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field. Along with a rejuvenated Rodgers, the Packers have averaged 171.7 rushing yards per game which is second only to New England’s 178 yards per game.

As dominant as the Packers appear to be, they need their defense to tighten up and play like it did in the second half of the 2019 season. A powerful Falcons offense can easily rack up a lot of points if the Packer defense lets its guard down. Atlanta’s 419 yards per game is good for sixth-best in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Pick

A lot of people will probably jump on the Green Bay bandwagon and bet them against the spread. After all, they are 3-0 ATS so far while the Falcons are just 1-2 ATS. However, this game is destined to see a lot of scoring. The Over is 3-0 in all three Packer games and it’s 3-0 in all three Atlanta games. With two strong offenses and two questionable defenses, taking the Over is the right play. Not to mention that the last 5 matchups between these teams have all resulted in Overs.

Pick
  • Over 58
    -108

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