Aston Villa vs. Everton – English Premier League, May 13, 2021

The games are coming thick and fast now as the EPL season gets closer to the end. There is still a lot to play for, and Everton could do its European aspirations a world of good with a win here.

But Villa has looked very good this season – even without the talismanic Jack Grealish for large chunks of time – and will give the Toffees a good game here.

I think BetOnline has priced this with the view that Everton is the only one of the two clubs that really has anything to play for.

But Dean Smith’s side has shown throughout the season how competitive it is, so the odds for the draw might be the best value here.

Aston Villa lost to Manchester United on Sunday after dominating the first half of the game. The biggest blow was that Ollie Watkins will now miss this one against Everton after being sent off at the end. He received a second yellow card for diving and now leaves a big hole up front for Dean Smith to fill.

Watkins scored when the teams met just two weeks ago; Villa put a dent in Everton’s European hopes by winning at Goodison Park. No one else has gotten anywhere near the goal tally of the striker playing his first season of top-flight soccer – and that could severely affect Villa’s chances of winning on Thursday.

Everton has also been buoyed by the victory over Champions League-chasing West Ham at the weekend. Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored the only goal of the game – his second in two games – to earn the three points.

With Liverpool not playing until later in the day, Everton could leapfrog its city rival and Spurs and West Ham to go into fifth with a win at Villa Park. There has only been one defeat in the last six games for Carlo Ancelotti’s side, but many of those have been drawn, so this should be a competitive encounter. 

Ollie Watkins’ absence on Thursday will obviously affect the outcome of this game, but Villa is much more than just its top-scoring striker. Grealish is likely to miss out again, but Bertrand Traore has really come on in recent weeks and could trouble the Everton backline.

The Toffees have enough incentive to win this one, but I think these two clubs are pretty evenly matched. A draw seems like a more likely outcome.