Sleeper Picks for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational – 4 Dark Horses at Bay Hill

| March 2, 2021 10:59 am PDT

After a wild week at The Concession, the PGA Tour pushes northeast about 110 miles and zeros in on Bay Hill. The stunning par-72 layout is a tremendous test of golf, one that Tiger conquered eight times between 2000-2013. Then again, if Matt Every can win here in back-to-back years, it’s safe to say that anything can happen at Arnie’s Place.

After sifting through odds at a bunch of different sites, I’ve got a four-pack of Arnold Palmer Invitational sleeper picks in mind.

Cameron Davis +7500

Jason Day and Marc Leishman are getting a fair amount of attention this week, but I’ve got my eye on another man from Down Under. Cameron Davis has quietly connected on 13 of his last 14 cuts and has already posted a 3rd and a 6th this season.

It’s worth noting that the recently turned 26-year-old is making his debut in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he did finish 8th at the 2020 Honda Classic (the last time he played a golf tournament in the state of Florida).

Among the 123 teeing it up at Bay Hill, Davis sits 3rd in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2021, behind only Viktor Hovland and Paul Casey. Once Cameron’s putter heats up, a W figures to be imminent.

Lanto Griffin +10000

Thanks to a 7th-26th-22nd stretch over his last three starts, Lanto Griffin strolls into Orlando with plenty of positive vibes. The 2019 Houston Open winner has a solid all-around game, as evidenced by finishing 18th in last year’s FedEx Cup standings.

What captivates me about Lanto as one of the Arnold Palmer Invitational sleepers are the productive starts he’s gotten off to in each of his six starts in 2021.

Lanto Griffin – First Round Scores in 2021
Tournament First Round Score To Par
Sentry Tournament of Champions 71 -2
Sony Open 68 -2
The American Express 69 -3
Farmers Insurance Open 66 -6
The Genesis Invitational 69 -2
WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession 70 -2

Hanging out at +1000 at BetOnline, investing a few shares in Griffin isn’t the worst idea.

Brendon Todd +12500

One of the streakiest players on tour could be on the verge of hitting his stride. 67-69 over the weekend at The Concession included 11 birdies and an eagle, but there’s more to be excited about when you study Brendon Todd’s scorecards from last week.

Todd makes his hay by hitting fairways and holing putts; when he’s on, he can be tough to beat. Right on cue, Brendon clocked in 2nd in driving accuracy at the WGC-Workday Championship (hit 89.29% of fairways) and finished 6th in SG: Putting.

Going back to January 1st, Todd leads this field in SG: Around-the-Green and ranks second in putts per GIR. 18th at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Keith Mitchell +17500

Forget about Keith Mitchell’s three missed cuts in a row heading into the API. Mitchell has never fared well on the West Coast during his career, but he flips a switch anytime he lands in the Sunshine State.

Case in point – the winner of the 2019 Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens finished 6th here in 2019 and 5th in 2020. Set to make his third appearance at Bay Hill, +17500 odds are awfully intriguing for this boom or bust play. Especially when you consider that Keith is lurking at +12000 at some of the other top golf betting sites.

More Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Picks

Are you on board with any of these sleeper picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

For a deeper dive into this week’s venue, this guide to Bay Hill Club and Lodge details what the players will face. Those expecting a flurry of birdies and thinking someone will get to 20-under-par try again.

Just four players broke par in 2020; only one man broke 70 during the final round (Matthew Fitzpatrick, 69). Tyrrell Hatton shot 73-74 over the weekend and won, becoming the first player on the PGA Tour to shoot over-par in the third and fourth rounds and go on to win since Geoff Ogilvy at the 2006 US Open (72-72).

Now that you’ve got few longshots to latch onto, it’s time to get acquainted with my best bets for the API.

Michael Wynn
Michael Wynn

As a former Division I collegiate golfer, Michael Wynn loves writing about golf. He's also an expert in most of America's most popular sports, writing extensively for on football, basketball, and baseball.

Michael's a Las Vegas native and has been with the company since 2017.

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