Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon State Beavers – College Basketball, January 14, 2021
The Wildcats travel to Oregon to face the Beavers, knowing that a win could potentially catapult them from fifth to first in the standings of other results go their way. The Beavers are playing catch up and have two or three games in hand on the teams above them. A win for them would not only derail Arizona’s ambitions; they would be closing the gap on the tightly packed top seven.
Arizona has dominated this fixture over recent years, having won eight of the last nine games against Oregon. However, the Beavers one win did come the last time they played each other in Oregon, which gives them some hope. Over the previous ten head-to-head games between the two teams, the Wildcats have averaged ten points more per game than the Beavers, so Oregon has a lot of catching up to do.
Let’s dig into it more with my Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon State Beavers betting preview, which includes a prediction and pick.
Wildcats vs. Beavers Odds
The spread is probably a couple of points higher than I expected it to be.
While the Wildcats are doing well this season, the Beavers are certainly no pushovers. Although they have only once been installed as underdogs before this game, and they lost that one.
Although the Wildcats have started the season very well, winning nine of their first 12 games, they have certainly hit a bump in the road over the last week, losing their previous two games in a row. The defeats did come against two of the top three teams in USC and UCLA, but it doesn’t bode well given they want to compete at the top with these teams.
On the road, they have won two of their opening three fixtures. This includes the last two against Washington and Washington State. They were perhaps games they were expected to win, but Washington State has been going well this season, and it was their first defeat of the season at the time. It took overtime to separate the two teams, but Arizona eventually came out on top, winning 82-86.
Here are the latest betting trends for New Arizona:
- They have only won two of the last eight matches against the spread.
- Six of their last seven games have gone over the betting total.
- The Wildcats have won four of the last five games against the Beavers, with or against the handicap.
- Arizona is 1-4 against the spread in their last five road trips.
- When playing against teams based in the Pacific-12 Conference, six of the last seven games have gone over the total.
- They have only won one of their last five games played in January.
Arizona has a great offense this season, averaging just under 80 points per game, which makes them competitive against anyone. One of the contributing factors of this has been their rebounding. They recycle the ball well at both ends of the court, averaging 37 rebounds per game. Their field goal percentage is decent at just shy of 45%, so when you are rebounding the ball as well as they are, there is a good chance they are going to score on every attack, whether that be the first or second time around.
The Wildcats work the ball around the court well, and their high tempo style creates many openings, which is highlighted with the large number of assists that they have made this season.
Their defense has been decent and consistent this season and has actually been better on the road, which is another bonus for them here. Perhaps one reason for that is that they seem to set themselves up better on the road; they seem to have a better shape. This doesn’t affect their attack either, as their offensive stats are similar both at home and on the road.
James Akinjo has been the star player for the Wildcats this season, and coach Sean Miller described him as ‘the driving force’ behind their success this season.
The Wildcats did have an injury-free team, with Kriisa the only player out through suspension. However, news broke over the last 48 hours that Jemarl Baker Jr. will miss the remainder of the season with a broken wrist.
Oregon’s run of three straight wins came to a half last time out against Stanford. The game was level at half time, but the Beavers fell away in the second half, eventually losing 71-81.
At home, they have won five of their eight games so far this season. This includes scoring a whopping 114 points against Northwest back in November.
Here are the latest betting trends for Oregon State:
- The Beavers have lost five of their last seven matchups against the spread.
- Four of their last six games have gone over the betting total.
- Only one of the last five games between these two teams has gone under the total.
- Against Pacific-12 Conference teams, four of their last six games have gone over the betting total.
- January has been an incredibly entertaining month as 12 of their last 15 games played in that month have gone over the total.
- However, Thursday’s have not been lucky for the Beavers as they have lost nine of the last 12 games they have played against the spread.
- Their record against the spread when installed as the underdog reads 1-4.
The Beavers have a good offensive team, just like the Wildcats, so we hopefully should be in for a decent game tonight. Despite having a relatively low field goal percentage, they score plenty of points, averaging 75 per game. This is presumably down to their excellent rebounding, which offers up plenty of second chances.
They average 16 assists per game, which is one of the highest in the league this season. They shoot well from both the three throw line and the edge of the D, having high percentage rates in both categories.
Their defense is solid, averaging just 66 points against them per game. They close their opponents down well and play a high court pressing game.
Senior Ethan Thompson leads most of the Beavers’ rankings this year, and his experience has been crucial.
Both Andela and Silva are questionable for this game due to a foot injury and quarantine restrictions.
Wildcats vs. Beavers Pick
With both teams losing last time out, it will be interesting to see how they react. The key to winning this game will be how well each team’s defense holds up against good offensive players.
With that in mind, I have to select over the betting total for this game. Both offenses have been strong all season, and I see no reason for that to change here.
Over 142.5 Points-110