Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Pick for August 11, 2020

The Arizona Diamondbacks hope to continue their minor surge in Coors Field, following an impressive 12-8 win on Monday over the rival Colorado Rockies.

Colorado will have other plans, of course, as the Rockies enter with a stout 11-5 record and a tentative hold onto first place in the NL West.

The Rockies will ask Kyle Freeland (2-0, 2.41 ERA) to silence the D’Backs, with Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.81 ERA) trying to keep the ball in the park on the other side.

This is actually a pretty decent pitching matchup, but as we know, in Coors, arm talent rarely matters. If you’re looking for a Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction, join me as I take a look at the odds and unveil the best bet for this contest.

The top MLB betting sites have this NL West clash priced pretty tightly, but the value is pretty clear to see.

You can pick either side to win straight up and feel good about the value, but betting on Arizona to keep it close isn’t really the way to maximize betting value in this game.

The Rockies to win by two runs looks tempting, while the game total is set at 11. For any other game, you’d hammer the Under with confidence, but this is Coors Field we’re talking about.

Yes, there is good pitching toeing the rubber here, but we could have said the same on Monday, where quality arms in Jon Gray and Robbie Ray got lit up to the tune of 14 total runs.

Yikes, am I right?

Needless to say, there look like several ways to attack this game. Let’s take a look at the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies matchup to gauge the best bet.

As noted, the pitching is rather good in this one. Kyle Freeland isn’t an elite talent, but he’s done very well to get the 2020 MLB season started.

The problem, of course, is he could be facing up to as many as eight right-handed hitters in a solid Arizona lineup. For a guy who gives up a .374 wOBA and .259 ISO to that side of the plate, that’s bad news.

Freeland also predictably had a rough time at home in 2019 (2-4, 9.25 ERA, 16 HR allowed).

Arizona has the matchup edge when it comes to the sticks, but they also have the far more talented pitcher. Zac Gallen is straight fire to start his career.

Former UNC baseball star Zac Gallen tied a national league record last night by allowing 3 runs or fewer in his first 18 MLB starts. He’s quietly put up Ace-like numbers. pic.twitter.com/TNfSyBxNjl

— Taylor Vippolis (@tvippolis) August 7, 2020

Gallen is not unbeatable in this matchup, but he doesn’t give up a ton of power, and he has a sparkling 29.2% strikeout rate. Death by Coors is a thing, but it’s safe to say the D’Backs have the edge going into this one.

When I first looked to offer a Diamondbacks vs. Rockies pick, I immediately looked at the game total.

For Coors Field, 11 feels a bit low. The pitching makes the Over a secondary bet, however, and given the matchup both on the mound and plate, I love Arizona here.

The Diamondbacks have the better matchup via their sticks, and they have the way more talented pitcher.

The beauty is you are getting nice value with the D’Backs as a straight up winner. The Over is always in play at this ballpark, but I’ll take Arizona to take a second straight game in this series.