Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute – UFC 261

| April 23, 2021 5:57 am PDT

If you’re hoping to make money betting on Anthony Smith vs. Jimmy Crute’s fight at UFC 261, this betting preview should help.

The fight goes down in Jacksonville, Florida, this Saturday, April 24. The bout opens up the UFC 261 main card, which has three title fights to look forward to. I’ve already put together betting picks and predictions for Masvidal vs. Usman 2, Zhang vs. Namajunas, and Shevchenko vs. Andrade. Feel free to check them all out on our MMA picks section.

But if you’re here to get the odds and best wagers for Smith vs. Crute, stay right where you are. I’ll be covering all you need to know about gambling this fight, including my prediction for Smith vs. Crute.

Let’s get started.

Smith vs. Crute – Who Wins?

  • Anthony Smith by Submission

I guess some will be surprised at my prediction for Smith vs. Crute to end in a submission for “Lionheart.”

In all fairness, I don’t think this a crazy shout at all. Smith has shown us a very potent submission game in the past, and he could very well bag his 14th win this way at UFC 261.

We’ll get to why I’m picking Smith later. Let’s look at the online odds for the fight before we go any further. 

Latest Odds for Smith vs. Crute

Anthony Smith to Win+162
Jimmy Crute to Win-200

The best online UFC betting sites make Smith an underdog against the up-and-coming Crute.

If you are to place a wager on Smith to win, you’ll get a solid price. And to be fair, I think the value in the odds above has probably already tempted many bettors to go with him at UFC 261. 

Crute is an awesome talent and looks set to enjoy a good run in the promotion. But is he justified at -200? I’m not sure he is. Sure, he has the type of style that could cause Smith problems. But I cannot justify taking him at this price. 

Will this be Crute’s coming-out party? If you believe it will be, check out his odds for a stoppage. If he wins this fight, it is likely to be by KO/TKO. However, I have not included that among my top bets for Smith vs. Crute. 

Best Bets for Smith vs. Crute

Fight Not to Go the Distance-150
Smith to Win+162
Smith to Win by Submission+700

The best bet for Smith vs. Crute is for the fight not to go the full three rounds.

In fact, this is among the safest bets for UFC 261, as Smith’s best chance of taking the win is by submission, while Crute’s is by KO/TKO. More than this, Smith has not won a fight by decision since 2016. Just two of his last 13 have gone the distance, and one of those fights was against Jon Jones.

Smith to win is well worth a pop at +162. The value is with Lionheart, who has the experience and tenacity to push the young Australian to his limits. That nous and wisdom can often be the difference in a fight like this, as we have seen countless times before. 

Finally, betting on Smith to beat Crute by submission hits the mark at +700. The value here is excellent for a man with 13 submissions from 34 wins as a professional mixed martial artist.

Remember, Crute’s only loss in 15 fights came by submission to Misha Cirkunov in September 2019. Smith will be looking for a similar result.

Why Smith Beats Crute

Initially, it was Johnny Walker that was set to face Crute on the main card of UFC 261.

Walker’s withdrawal with injury opened up the door for the one-time UFC light heavyweight title challenger to step up. It could prove to be one of the best moves Smith has made in the past couple of years.

Although he dropped a couple of disappointing losses to Glover Teixeira and Aleksandr Rakic in the past 12 months, I think people are sleeping on Smith in this fight. For instance, he is coming off an impressive submission of Devin Clark in November. And in June 2019, he submitted Alexander Gustafsson, who is widely credited as one of the elite UFC light heavyweights of the past decade. 

Smith pushed Jon Jones to his limits in March 2019 and was on an absolute tear before that. He is really being looked over here, and I believe he will show that he still has a lot to give on the night.

I’m taking Smith to submit Crute in the second round and add another stoppage to his record. 

More Predictions for UFC 261

Will Anthony Smith beat Jimmy Crute by submission on Saturday, April 24?

I’ll certainly be hoping that the stars align. The odds for Smith to win by sub are awesome and could make many bettors very happy this weekend.

You can find more predictions and picks for UFC 261 here. But I’ll leave you with a couple of the most popular ones below. 

Enjoy the fights!

Adam Haynes
Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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