Predictions for Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe (UFC Vegas 40)

| October 12, 2021 12:53 pm PDT

If you’ve come here for UFC Vegas 40 predictions for Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe, I got you. 

The heavyweight co-main of Saturday’s event from the UFC Apex has a kind of old-school vs. nu-skool dynamic that I like.

With 16 years between the 42-year-old Arlovski and his 26-year-old opponent, it would be easy to assume that the old man is getting slept. But don’t go placing your bets until you’ve heard my take on matters. 

Let’s start this preview of Saturday’s fight off with the odds for Arlovski vs. Felipe before I get to my predictions, top picks, and breakdown.

Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe Odds

Arlovski to Win-115
Felipe to Win+105

I’ve taken the odds for Arlovski vs. Felipe from the Bovada sportsbook.

As the prices suggest, the bookies have this one down as a pick ’em, with neither man standing out as an exceptionally better fighter than the other. 

Arlovski’s odds to beat Felipe are -115. The former UFC heavyweight champion competes for the 54th time as a professional and will be hoping to bag win number 32 before he turns 43 in February. 

Felipe, who called Arlovski out earlier this year, is 11-1 in MMA, with his only loss coming to Sergey Spivak last year.

I agree with the oddsmakers’ betting line for Arlovski vs. Felipe. It’s a tough fight to call, for sure. 

But decisions must be made, and you can find my predictions for UFC Vegas 40’s co-main below.

Arlovski vs. Felipe Predictions

  • Winner: Andrei Arlovski
  • Method of Victory: Decision

I’m predicting a win for the “Pitbull” by decision this Saturday.

The best bet for Arlovski vs. Felipe, however, might not be to target a fighter in this one. As I highlighted in my previous piece that covers predictions for all UFC Vegas 40 fights, this heavyweight clash could really go either way, but I have to give the Belarusian the nod. 

I’ll explain why that is a little later. First, let’s take a look at the odds for the best Arlovski vs. Felipe bets to place on Saturday’s fight.

Top Bets for Arlovski vs. Felipe

  • Fight Goes to Decision -162
  • Arlovski to Win by Decision +160
  • Fight to End in a Draw +5000

To echo a previous point, this one could go either way.

But with just two of Arlovski’s last 14 fights ending in KO losses, the fight to go to the scorecards is a good bet at -162. Better yet, he hasn’t finished anyone with strikes in 19 fights. Thus, my first betting tip Arlovski vs. Felipe, holds weight. 

It’s even more of an intriguing option when you consider that he is a smart fighter. Long gone is the “glass chin” label, and given the only men to knock him out since 2015 have been Francis Ngannou and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. He’s done pretty well. 

Felipe has power, but he’s failed to put anyone away in the UFC. He has 6 KO/TKOs from 10 wins and will be a threat, but Arlovski has navigated faster and more dangerous strikers in recent times.

Arlovski’s odds to beat Felipe by decision (+162) look good enough to take, based on what we know. 

If you have a spare dollar, I’d also recommend putting it down on a draw (+5000). I mean, it should be a close contest, and we’re probably overdue a stalemate in the heavyweight division.

Still, the smart bet is for the fight to go to a decision (-160).

Arlovski vs. Felipe Fight Breakdown

Although he is the older man with more mileage on the clock, many of the more desirable advantages are with Arlovski.

The former champ has three inches in height and two in reach over the Brazilian at 6’3″ and 77″, respectively. He’s a better technical fighter and should be able to circle away from the powerful right hand of Felipe. 

A short and stocky plodder, the younger man is not the type of fighter that Arlovski struggles with. He’s not super quick and technically difficult to figure out. He’s the kind of fighter that wants to walk you down and plant on your chin. The Pitbull will do his best to make sure he cannot find his range. 

Arlovski made his UFC debut in November 2000 at UFC 28, submitting future adult film actor Aaron Brink. Since then, via various different promotions, he’s faced many fighters of Felipe’s ilk.

Although the potential is there for a wild shot that clatters Arlovski off his feet, it’s likelier that we will see the veteran do what great veterans do against one-dimensional fighters. That is, expose their opponent’s shortcomings and execute a smarter strategy behind a popping jab.

This is a tough one to call on paper, but I have to give the Belarusian the nod. Arlovski by decision seems a stronger case to argue in favor of than Felipe by stoppage.

Wrapping it Up

My predictions and betting tips for Andrei Arlovski vs. Carlos Felipe are in stone. 

I’m favoring Arlovski to score a decision win on the night, but betting on the fight to go the distance is probably the smarter move. With that said, the 22-year MMA veteran has a slight edge where it matters, so check the latest markets at the top UFC betting apps if you’re feeling his chances on the night.

For more recommended sports bets for this weekend, visit the following section of our site.

Adam Haynes

Adam is a sports writer and tipster with a strong background in MMA, boxing, and combat sports.

When Adam isn't writing about those, as well as politics, rugby, and Gaelic Games, he can be found working on methods and strategies to beat the bookies.

For his troubles, Adam is a fan of Leinster Rugby, Glasgow Celtic, and trusting the process.

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