Best NFL Picks ATS for 2022 Divisional Round – 49ers to Beat the Spread and More
The 2022 NFL playoffs continue this weekend, as four more games drop in the Divisional Round.
This week’s games are much tougher to predict, as the matchups are a lot tighter. A trip to the conference championship games is on the line, too, so the intensity level naturally is a tick higher.
Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, and Kansas City all enter the week as favorites. Will every home team win? Can any of the underdogs win or at least beat the spread? Let’s break it all down in my NFL picks against the spread for the 2022 Divisional Round.
Tennessee Titans (-3.5) -104
The first game up has the AFC’s top seed (Titans) hosting the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincy looks capable of going on a run when you look at their talent, but barely getting by the Raiders raised some questions last week. The Bengals can still put up points in this matchup, while the Bengals performed quite well (11-7) against the spread this year. They also went 6-3 ATS as the underdog.
The Titans were 10-7 against the spread, of course, and it’s possible they get Derrick Henry back for this one.
Mike Vrabel says this is a big week of practice for Derrick Henry to get acclimated. They want him to get used to running a lot/blocking schemes.
No official decision yet on Henry’s status or workload but Vrabel says they will run the ball a lot regardless b/c it’s “who we are.”
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) January 17, 2022
With Henry or not, the Titans want to run the ball, and they ended the regular season with the league’s 5th best ground game.
Especially if Henry returns, you have to like Tennessee’s chances to have success on the ground after seeing Josh Jacobs slice through Cincy’s front line last week.
Joe Burrow and co. could have just as much success through the air, but the Titans are a tough defense to figure out. At times they’ve been atrocious, and other times they found ways to corral some of the best passers in football.
They should be at full strength, and I don’t trust Burrow to win his second playoff game in as many tries.
Buffalo Bills (+2.5) -110
Next up are the Bills, who are weirdly the underdogs as they prepare to battle the Kansas City Chiefs. I say weirdly, because Buffalo easily skated past the Chiefs during the regular season, and looked unstoppable in a dismantling of the Patriots last week.
Obviously Kansas City also looked good. Patrick Mahomes and co. are at home, they’ve made it to the last two Super Bowls, and they’re as talented as anyone.
Needless to say, this is an insane matchup, and one could argue this spread should be even closer.
Could the Chiefs continue to have Buffalo’s number? Sure. But with this 2.5-point spread, you don’t necessarily have to bet on the Bills to win. You can just bank on this being a very close contest.
That naturally makes Buffalo a more appealing ATS bet to me at +2.5, so even though it’s not the typical underdog spread I’d target, I do like it for the Divisional Round.
San Francisco 49ers (+6) -110
The Niners opened as +4.5 underdogs at the best NFL betting sites for their Divisional Round clash with the Green Bay Packers. Since then, their line has moved in two successive days.
Now they sit at +6, largely due to being on the road and at less than full strength.
#49ers coach Kyle Shanahan with injury updates:
QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a right shoulder sprain. He should be fine for practice on Tuesday.
LB Fred Warner has a low ankle sprain. They’ll see where he is tomorrow but Garoppolo and Warner have good chance to play this week.
— Nick Wagoner (@nwagoner) January 17, 2022
I don’t doubt the Packers are winning this game. They beat San Francisco earlier this year, and they’re getting healthy at just the right time.
However, the Niners scored a big road win last week, and have been a strong 6-3 on the road this season. San Francisco also has the defense and rushing attack to win in any situation.
Green Bay has the second best ATS mark (12-5) on the year, but the Niners weren’t that far behind (10-8), and were 3-1 as underdogs.
While 6+ is plenty tempting as things stand, consider how much this line has been moving. If it can inch closer to 7+, bettors could wait and get an even better price.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) -102
The Bucs at -3 feels like one of the better NFL picks against the spread for the Divisional Round.
You can just bet on Tom Brady’s history if you’re unsure here. Brady has willed his teams deep into the playoffs his entire career, while the Bucs are the defending champs.
Brady is back in the Divisional Round for the 17th time.
Tom Brady. Timeless.
On to the Divisional round for the 17th time in his career. pic.twitter.com/bdM3vU8e2I
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) January 16, 2022
My guess is we are headed for a tense rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, which would pit the Bucs against the Packers again at Lambeau Field.
Only time will tell if Green Bay does their job, but the Bucs are at home this week, and they face a quarterback in Matthew Stafford that only won his first career playoff game just recently.
L.A. is dangerous, but the Bucs still own a top-three run defense, and have the pass protection to keep the Rams at bay.
In that same breath, I would absolutely keep an eye on the status of stud left tackle Tristan Wirfs.
No offensive tackle has allowed a lower pressure rate over the last two seasons than Tristan Wirfs — brutal loss for Tampa Bay.
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) January 16, 2022
If Wirfs is good to go, I wouldn’t be worried about the Bucs, and I’d stand pat with this pick. If he’s randomly out, though, I’d start to rethink things a bit.
Betting on the 2022 NFL Divisional Round
If you need help picking NFL games against the spread this week, hopefully my advice above helps you place some bets. You can also check out my 2022 NFL Divisional Round predictions for a little more help.
The Divisional Round is probably going to be tougher to peg than the Wild Card Round. All four of these matchups are pretty evenly matched, and you could argue for every team to advance.
You can further gauge how to bet by looking at the early 2022 Divisional Round odds. The post below details the initial lines, and breaks down all four matchups.