Predictions and Betting Picks for AFL Round 7 (2021)
Round 7 of the 2021 AFL season begins with a blockbuster matchup on Friday, April 30, as the reigning premiers clash with the current frontrunners at the MCG.
The Tigers will be aiming to end a poor run of three defeats in four games, while the Bulldogs will be looking to extend their winning start to the season.
Along with the Dogs, the Demons are the only other club with a 100% record this year. Melbourne faces the struggling Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, May 1.
We also have the first Western Derby of 2021 to look forward to this weekend, with the Eagles and the Dockers going head-to-head at Optus Stadium on Sunday, May 2.
Below, I share my AFL Round 7 predictions and cover the best AFL bets for the weekend’s footy action.
Western Bulldogs to Beat Richmond
Not only did the Doggies register their sixth straight win last weekend, but they also racked up their fourth 100+ score of the campaign.
Luke Beveridge’s men crushed GWS by 39 points in Round 6, with Josh Bruce kicking two goals. The key forward now has 19 goals to his name this season, while Aaron Naughton has 13 goals under his belt and 15 behinds.
Meanwhile, the Tigers were handed their third defeat in four games last time out. Richmond only managed to notch up 48 points against Melbourne and currently sit 12 points behind the Bulldogs in the standings.
To make matters worse, Dustin Martin is one of several Richmond stars set to miss the clash with the Dogs. With several notable absentees, I can see the Tigers struggling to deal with Beveridge’s side.
Gold Coast to Beat Collingwood
The Magpies suffered their fifth defeat in six games last weekend, this time losing to Essendon. Having beaten Carlton back in Round 2, Collingwood heads into Round 7 on a woeful four-match losing streak.
On the flip side, the Suns picked up their second win of the campaign last time out. Goal Coast put in a hugely impressive performance to see off Sydney by 40 points, with Ben King (5.1) and Ben Ainsworth (3.1) starring.
Many of the Aussie rules betting sites are favoring Collingwood to win this one, but I expect Goal Coast to give the Pies a run for their money on Friday night.
In fact, I’m backing the Suns to get the better of off-form Collingwood.
Adelaide to Beat GWS
After winning three of their opening four games, the Crows gave themselves a real chance of securing a top-eight finish this term.
Yes, back-to-back losses have hampered the club’s progress recently. But having pushed Fremantle (84-72) and Hawthorn (102-99) in their previous two outings, Adelaide will be confident of overcoming Greater Western Sydney.
The Giants claimed a memorable Sydney Derby victory in Round 5 but were put in their place by the Bulldogs last weekend. As a result, only four teams sit below them on the AFL ladder right now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this match goes right down to the wire. That said, I can see Adelaide edging out GWS.
St Kilda to Beat Hawthorn
It is no secret that St Kilda and Hawthorn are not where they want to be at the moment. Both sides have won just two of their opening six games this season, so it is hardly surprising that they find themselves in the bottom four.
The Saints have shown everyone glimpses of what they are capable of this year. After losing to Melbourne by just 18 points, they sealed a 20-point victory over West Coast in Round 4. But their inconsistency has cost them too many points.
On the other hand, the Hawks have claimed two slender wins this term. Hawthorn beat Essendon by just a single point in Round 1, with a three-point win coming against Adelaide last weekend.
Given that St Kilda has claimed a couple of convincing victories this year, I’m backing Brett Ratten’s men to seal a slender triumph over the Hawks this weekend.
Port Adelaide to Beat Brisbane
There was very little to separate Port Adelaide and Brisbane last season. After all, the clubs finished joint-top of the ladder on 56 points, with the Power snatching the minor premiership thanks to their superior point percentage.
However, it’s safe to say that Port has left Brisbane behind in 2021.
The Power have won five of their six games this year and head into Round 7 with an easy 54-point victory over St Kilda. Conversely, the Lions have only managed to pick up three wins this term.
With Lachie Neale – the 2020 Brownlow medalist – set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines, Brisbane is likely to struggle to cope with Port’s threat.
Geelong to Beat Sydney
Fourth-place Geelong and fifth-place Sydney are locked on 16 points in the standings, with the Cats (123.0) leading the Swans (113.9) on point percentage.
This is destined to be a close game.
The Swans kicked off their campaign with four straight victories, but they have since lost each of their last two outings. On the flip side, Geelong heads into Round 7 on the back of two straight wins.
Having clinched a colossal 97-point victory over West Coast last time out, the Cats have a heap of momentum behind them. With that in mind, Geelong should be able to see off Sydney on Saturday.
Melbourne to Beat North Melbourne
It feels as though the gulf between Melbourne and North is bigger than ever before.
At the top end of the table, the Demons are flying high. They maintained their 100% record by sealing a dominant victory over Richmond last weekend, with Tom McDonald kicking three goals against the defending premiers.
At the bottom of the standings, the Kangaroos are the only side without a point to their name this season. Six straight defeats have kept David Noble’s men rooted to the foot of the ladder – and it isn’t easy to imagine them winning a game right now.
It goes without saying that Melbourne should beat North without any problems.
Essendon to Beat Carlton
The Bombers have only played six matches this year, but a pattern is already beginning to emerge. After losing their first two games, Essendon thumped St Kilda in Round 3. Ben Rutten’s men then lost back-to-back games again before beating Collingwood.
Funnily enough, the Blues have also managed to pick up just two wins this term. Their victories came in Rounds 3 and 4, with defeats to Port Adelaide and Brisbane following soon after.
Pressure is on both sides to start winning games and move up the ladder, but there can only be one winner on Sunday, unless there is an unlikely draw, of course.
Given that Carlton has suffered two straight losses and Essendon won last weekend, I’m backing the Bombers to carry their momentum into Round 7.
Fremantle to Beat West Coast
There is no hiding from the fact that West Coast has been wildly inconsistent in 2021. The Eagles’ record of WLWLWL underlines their unpredictability, although they will surely rise to the occasion of the Western Derby.
For the first time in a long time, the Dockers find themselves ahead of their rivals in the standings – and they thoroughly deserve to be there. Fremantle has picked up four wins from six matches this season and heads into Round 7 on the back of three straight victories.
It feels like all the momentum in the West is with Freo at the moment, so I can see the Dockers downing the Eagles on Sunday.
I have also included West Coast vs. Fremantle as my best bets for AFL Round 7.
My Top Betting Picks for AFL Round 7
Now that my AFL Round 7 predictions are done, it’s time to look into my top footy picks for the weekend.
Collingwood vs. Gold Coast – Gold Coast to Win (2.63)
Following a shaky start, the Suns are beginning to grow into the season. After thrashing the Swans by 40 points last weekend, I’m confident that Gold Coast can get the better of Collingwood.
The Magpies are in a real mess right now, having secured just one win from six games this year. Collingwood (1.50) is the bookies’ favorite to beat Gold Coast, but I’m siding with the Suns.
Brisbane vs. Port Adelaide – Port Adelaide to Win (1.73)
In my eyes, odds of 1.73 for Port Adelaide to beat Brisbane (2.10) seem too good to miss. I am well aware that Brisbane pushed Port all the way last year, but the Power are on a different level to the Lions this term.
Port currently leads Brisbane by eight points on the AFL ladder – and I expect them to extend that gap to 12 points this weekend.
West Coast vs. Fremantle – Fremantle to Win (2.25)
As you would expect, West Coast (1.62) is the Western Derby favorite. However, I’m going against the bookies on this occasion and backing Fremantle to claim the WA bragging rights on Sunday.
While the Eagles are struggling for consistency, the Dockers can’t stop winning at the moment. Freo will be pumped for Sunday’s showdown, so I expect the underdogs to upset the odds.
Make sure you join me next week for more AFL predictions and betting advice!