Predictions and Best Bets for AFL Round 4 (2021)

By Ben Morris in Aussie Rules
| April 7, 2021 11:16 am PDT

Can you believe that we’re already making predictions for Round 4 of the 2021 AFL season? The footy is coming thick and fast this year – but who’s complaining!?

Port Adelaide vs. Richmond is undoubtedly the standout tie of the round, with the defending premiers and the reigning minor premiers going head-to-head on Friday.

Elsewhere, Melbourne, Sydney, and the Bulldogs will be aiming to maintain their 100% starts to the campaign, while North Melbourne and GWS go in search of their first points this year.

With giving my AFL Round 4 predictions, I also share my best value AFL bets for Round 4 at the end of this post – so make sure you stick around for those.

Let’s kick things off by checking out my AFL predictions for Round 4.

Sydney to Beat Essendon

Along with the Bulldogs and Melbourne, Sydney is one of only three teams with a 100% record in the AFL this season. Not only have the Swans beaten Brisbane, Adelaide, and Richmond, but they have also racked up 100+ points in every game in 2021.

Chad Warner secured a record-breaking third straight Rising Star nomination for Sydney in Round 3, joining team-mates Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell on the list.

Warner is averaging 19.7 disposals, four tackles, and 1.3 goals per game this year.

The Bombers picked up their first win of the campaign last weekend, seeing off St Kilda at Marvel Stadium. But defeats to Hawthorn and Port Adelaide mean that Essendon currently sits in tenth place.

I expect the Swans to extend their winning start to 2021 by sealing a comfortable victory over the Bombers on Thursday.

Port Adelaide to Beat Richmond

Port Adelaide kicked off the season by bagging a combined total of 236 points across wins against North Melbourne and Essendon. However, the Power suffered a 37-point loss at the hands of the Eagles last weekend.

Similarly, the Tigers also won their opening two matches before tasting defeat in Round 3. Tom Lynch (3.3) enhanced his Coleman Medal aspirations last time out, although Jack Riewoldt (1.1) endured a difficult outing.

The defending premiers will obviously be eager to flex their muscles against the reigning minor premiers, but I can see the Power edging out the Tigers on this occasion. In my eyes, Port has looked better than Richmond this year.

Western Bulldogs to Beat Brisbane

Last weekend, the Doggies handed out the trashing of the season so far. Scoring 167 in a 128-point win over North Melbourne, Luke Beveridge’s men humiliated the Kangaroos in all four quarters.

Josh Bruce kicked a whopping ten goals independently, with nine other Bulldogs players getting on the scoresheet. Boasting an outrageous point percentage of 181.6, the Doggies currently find themselves leading the AFL ladder.

Following defeats to Syndey and Geelong, the Lions secured their first win of the season in Round 3. Brisbane overcame Collingwood by just a single point last time out, with Joe Daniher (3.3) starring for his side.

The Lions appear to be heading in the right direction, but I can’t see them preventing the Doggies from clinching four straight wins in Round 4.

West Coast to Beat St Kilda

The Eagles laid down a big marker last weekend by recording an impressive 37-point victory over Port Adelaide. As you would expect, Josh Kennedy was at the heart of everything good about West Coast’s performance – kicking four goals in a dominant display.

Meanwhile, St Kilda was on the receiving end of a hefty loss to the Bombers. The Saints conceded 143 points in Round 3 and now find themselves third from the bottom on the ladder.

At the other end of the standings, the Eagles are up to fifth. Having clinched two wins from their opening three games this term, I’m confident that West Coast will get the better of St Kilda on Saturday.

Gold Coast to Beat Carlton

Despite losing two of their opening three games, the Suns have impressed many AFL fans this season. Gold Coast crushed North by 59 points in Round 2 and showed glimpses of hope in their defeats to West Coast and Adelaide.

Ben King took his tally for the campaign to ten by kicking four goals last weekend. However, the Suns ended up missing out by ten points against the resurgent Crows.

Carlton conceded 100+ points in each of their first two matches this year, losing to Richmond and Collingwood along the way. The Blues managed to beat Fremantle without any real problems in Round 3, yet they won’t be happy with their season.

The top-rated Aussie rules betting sites view Carlton as the slight favorite to win this one, but I’m going against the bookies and backing the Suns to come out on top.

Collingwood to Beat GWS

It’s fair to say that we haven’t really seen the best of Collingwood in 2021.

The Magpies lost to the Bulldogs on the opening weekend before beating Carlton in Round 2, yet they came unstuck against Brisbane last time out – losing by just one point following a dramatic finale.

Thankfully for Collingwood, Greater Western Sydney has gotten off to an even poorer start this year.

In fact, three straight defeats to St Kila, Freo, and Melbourne mean that GWS currently sits second from the bottom on the AFL ladder.

If everything goes to plan, the Pies should inflict a fourth successive loss on the Giants this weekend.

Adelaide to Beat North Melbourne

Adelaide and North Melbourne finished joint-bottom in last year’s standings. While the Crows have started the 2021 campaign in flying form, the Kangaroos have picked up where they left off the last term.

The Crows stunned everyone by beating Geelong in Round 1. To prove that wasn’t a fluke, they overcame the Suns last weekend. Despite losing to Sydney in Round 2, Matthew Nicks’ men have a good account of themselves.

North’s bad start to the season got even worse last weekend, with the Bulldogs smashing 167 points past their bewildered backline. Following heavy losses to Port and Gold Coast, the Kangaroos are rock bottom of the table.

With 17 goals to his name already, Taylor Walker leads the 2021 Coleman standings. I expect Walker to kick his side to victory against North Melbourne.

Melbourne to Beat Geelong

It feels like Melbourne just keeps on getting better this year. The Demons edged past Freo and St Kilda in the opening two rounds, but they made last weekend’s 34-point win over GWS look easy.

Young gun Clayton Oliver sits fourth on the disposals leaderboard, leading the way for contested possessions. If he keeps that up, Melbourne will continue to dominate in the middle of the park.

The Cats have recovered from their opening-day loss to Adelaide by posting back-to-back wins, but let’s not forget that Melbourne boasts a 100% record this year.

This will be a tight affair, but I can see the Demons maintaining their winning start to the 2021 campaign in Round 4.

Fremantle to Beat Hawthorn

Sitting fourteenth and fifteenth on the ladder, there is no denying that Fremantle and Hawthorn are not where they want to be at the moment. That said, neither side has shown enough quality this term to warrant a higher league position.

The Dockers beat GWS in Round 2 but have also lost to Melbourne and Carlton. On the other hand, the Hawks have suffered defeats to Richmond and Geelong, with a slender win coming against Essendon in Round 1.

Both teams have played poor footy so far this year; that’s a fact. However, Hawthorn heads into Round 4 on a two-match losing streak – so I’m backing Freo to edge this one.

My Best Bets for AFL Round 4

Let’s finish by checking out my top AFL picks for Round 4.

  • Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane – Western Bulldogs to Win (1.53)
  • St Kilda vs. West Coast – West Coast to Win (1.40)
  • Melbourne vs. Geelong – Melbourne to Win (2.10)

As you can see, I’ve gone for two relatively safe bets here, along with one slightly riskier wager. Still, I’m confident that my AFL Round 4 bets will win us some money.

The Bulldogs (1.53) have started the season in frightening form and are deserving ladder leaders as things stand. When you consider that Beveridge’s men have sealed three straight victories this term, backing them to beat Brisbane (2.50) feels like a no-brainer.

The bookies expect the Eagles (1.40) to see off St Kilda (2.88) without any issues – and I can’t argue with that. West Coast heads into Round 4 on the back of a win over Port, while the Saints have lost each of their last two outings.

Geelong (1.73) is actually the favorite to get the better of Melbourne (2.10) this weekend, yet I think the price for the Melbourne win offers far better value. Given that you can more than double your money by backing the in-form Demons to beat the Cats, I highly recommend jumping on this bet.

That concludes my betting picks for AFL Round 4. Make sure you join me next week as I share my predictions and picks for Round 5 of the 2021 AFL season.

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