Predictions and Best Bets for AFL Round 3 (2021)

| March 31, 2021 8:42 am PDT

If you’re betting on AFL Round 3, I’ve got you covered.

There are plenty of exciting matchups in store this weekend, with West Coast hosting Port Adelaide, Richmond clashing with Sydney, and Geelong facing off against Hawthorn.

Not only do I give my AFL predictions for Round 3 in this post, but I also share my top picks and best bets for the upcoming fixtures.

So, without further ado, let’s get stuck into my predictions for AFL Round 3.

Brisbane to Beat Collingwood

Collingwood suffered a 16-point loss to the Bulldogs in Round 1, but last year’s semi-finalists bounced back last time out. Jordan De Goey (4.3) was the star of the show as the Magpies crushed Carlton by 21 points in Round 2, while Brody Mihocek also kicked three goals.

Meanwhile, Brisbane made it two losses from two outings last weekend. Having suffered a hefty defeat at the hands of Sydney, the Lions were beaten agonizingly in Round 2 – losing to Geelong by just a single point.

This should be a close game. But ultimately, I just can’t see the Lions losing their opening three matches of the season. I’m backing Chris Fagan’s men to rediscover last year’s from and pick up their first win of 2021 on Thursday.

Western Bulldogs to Beat North Melbourne

Unfortunately for the Kangaroos, they seem to have picked up where they left off last season.

After finishing joint bottom in 2020, North Melbourne has already suffered two sizeable losses this term. The Roos kicked off their campaign with a 52-point defeat to Port Adelaide, with a 59-point loss coming against the Suns last weekend.

On the flip side, the Bulldogs have won each of their two matches this year – beating Collingwood and West Coast. Notching up 100 points against the Eagles isn’t easy, but that’s exactly what the Doggies achieved in Round 2.

It goes without saying that anything other than a Bulldogs win would be a colossal upset on Friday.

Gold Coast to Beat Adelaide

I’ve been pretty impressed with how Gold Coast has performed so far this season. West Coast ultimately outclassed the Suns in Round 1, yet they laid down a marker with a statement thrashing of North Melbourne in Round 2.

With an injury to young gun Matt Rowell, Izak Rankine and Ben Kings stepped up, and both kicked three goals in Gold Coast’s 59-point hammering of the Kangaroos.

The Crows stunned everyone by seeing off Geelong on the opening weekend, but they were put in their place by Sydney last time out. Adelaide has enjoyed a promising start to 2021, although beating the Suns won’t be easy.

At the end of the day, I expect Gold Coast to get the better of the Crows.

Richmond to Beat Sydney

The Tigers are at it again, aren’t they?

Fresh from clinching back-to-back flags, Damien Hardwick’s men have familiarly started the new campaign. Straightforward wins over Carlton and Hawthorn have seen Richmond claim maximum points this season, with Jack Riewoldt kicking four goals in both games.

In fairness, Sydney has also started 2021 in an eye-catching style.

The Swans have recorded 100+ points in each of their two matches this term, picking up two wins along the way. But having conceded a whopping 182 points in the process, Sydney clearly has defensive issues.

I’m backing the Tigers to maintain their 100% record at the MCG on Saturday.

St Kilda to Beat Essendon

The Bombers could barely have dreamed of a poorer start to the new AFL season. Following a cruel one-point loss to Hawthorn in Round 1, Essendon was humiliated by Port Adelaide last time out – suffering a 54-point defeat against the reigning premiers.

Despite the best efforts of Jack Steele (3.1), the Saints lost to Melbourne last weekend. However, a solid victory over GWS in Round 1 means that St Kilda remains in a strong position.

This is destined to be a tight matchup, but I’m confident that St Kilda will come out on top. The Bombers just can’t seem to get it together at the moment, meaning the Saints should be able to capitalize on Essendon’s shakiness.

Port Adelaide to Beat West Coast

This is undoubtedly the tie of the round.

Port Adelaide has already racked up a mammoth 236 this season, with easy victories coming against North and Essendon. Needless to say, the 2020 premiers are showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Orazio Fantasia (6.7) and Charlie Dixon (6.4) have been immense for the Power of late, although the Eagles possess a goal-machine of their own in Josh Kennedy (6.3).

West Coast comfortably beat the Suns in Round 1, but last weekend’s loss to the Bulldogs has halted the club’s progression. With that in mind, I’m going with Port here.

Carlton to Beat Fremantle

The Blues have given a good account of themselves in each of their two outings this term. However, they have ended up on the losing side on both occasions. Despite scoring 80+ points against Richmond and Collingwood, David Teague’s men have nothing to show for their efforts so far.

On the flip side, Fremantle lost to Melbourne in Round 1 before beating GWS last weekend. But with skipper Nat Fyfe ruled out of Sunday’s clash due to concussion, the Dockers are bound to find life difficult against Carlton.

In my eyes, the visit of an understrength Freo provides the Blues with the ideal opportunity to chalk up their first win of the season.

Melbourne to Beat GWS

After narrowly missing out on the finals series last year, it feels as though Melbourne has a point to prove in 2021. Indeed, the Demons have kicked off the new campaign with back-to-back wins – seeing off Fremantle and St Kilda without any real problems.

Funnily enough, Greater Western Sydney has suffered successive defeats to exactly the same opponents. The Giants were beaten by the Saints in Round 1 before losing to Freo last time out, meaning they are one of only five teams without a point to their name this season.

When you consider both teams’ recent results, all the signs point towards Melbourne beating GWS this weekend.

Geelong to Beat Hawthorn

Geelong and Hawthorn will renew their rivalry when the two sides wrap up Round 3 on Monday. But unfortunately for the Hawks, I expect Monday’s meeting to be a one-sided affair.

Hawthorn managed to edge out Essendon by one point on the opening weekend, yet Alastair Clarkson’s side was outclassed by Richmond in Round 2. A lack of goals has been a cause for concern in the Hawks camp this year.

The Cats suffered a shock loss to Adelaide in Round 1, but they bounced back to defeat Brisbane in the previous round. Tom Hawkins (3.4) did the bulk of the scoring, while Francis Evans, Zach Tuohy, and Joel Selwood each kicked two goals.

Having made a relatively slow start to the new season, the Cats are likely to get into their grove against Hawthorn.

My AFL Round 3 Best Bets – April 1-5, 2021

Here are my top betting picks for AFL Round 3.

  • Collingwood vs. Brisbane – Brisbane to Win (2.00)
  • Adelaide vs. Gold Coast – Gold Coast to Win (1.80)
  • GWS vs. Melbourne – Melbourne to Win (1.62)

I think the Lions can count themselves extremely unlucky to have suffered a one-point loss to Geelong in Round 2. In fact, Brisbane heads into Round 3 on the back of two straight defeats.

Collingwood is priced at 1.80 to beat Chris Fagan’s side on Thursday, meaning Brisbane (2.00) is the bookmakers’ underdog. But I’m backing the Lions to come good against the Magpies and get their first win of 2021 on the board.

Following a woeful 2020 campaign, Adelaide (2.00) has started the new season in a promising fashion. Still, I’m confident that Gold Coast (1.80) will secure back-to-back wins this weekend. After all, the Suns annihilated North Melbourne in Round 2, while the Crows conceded 121 points against Sydney.

The last of my three betting picks for AFL Round 3 is for GWS vs. Melbourne. The Giants are priced at 2.25 to win this one, but I believe Melbourne’s price of 1.62 offers far better value.

Let’s not forget that Greater Western Sydney has lost to St Kilda and Fremantle this season, while the Demons have already beaten both of those teams with relative ease.

Whether you like the look of my AFL picks for Round 3, or you’re planning to place your own wagers on this weekend’s games, make sure you only use the best Aussie rules betting sites.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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