Predictions and Betting Picks for AFL Round 16 (2021)

| June 29, 2021 4:17 am PDT

Round 16 of the 2021 AFL season kicks off on Thursday, July 1, with struggling Gold Coast and off-form Richmond going head-to-head at Metricon Stadium.

Geelong and Essendon face off in Friday’s sole AFL clash, with four fixtures – including Melbourne vs. GWS – on Saturday, July 3.

We have a further three matches to enjoy on Sunday, as Syndey and West Coast do battle in the early game. Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne wraps up the weekend’s footy action at Marvel Stadium.

Looking for some Round 16 AFL predictions and betting advice? If so, you have come to the right place. Below, I share my AFL Round 16 predictions for every match before providing you with some AFL picks for the upcoming games.

Let’s start with my Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers prediction.

Richmond to Beat Gold Coast

It’s safe to say that Richmond will want to forget about Round 15 as quickly as possible. The Tigers kicked a measly two goals in a 40-point loss to St Kilda last weekend, along with ten behinds.

The defending premiers now sit eighth on the ladder – level with ninth-place Fremantle on 28 points.

With a handful of teams hot on their heels, they can’t afford any more slip-ups between now and the end of the season.

Thankfully for the Tigers, their next opponents are the Suns, who head into Round 16 on a three-match losing streak. In fact, the Queenslanders have lost six of their last seven games and find themselves third from bottom in the standings as a result.

After recording just 31 points against Port Adelaide a fortnight ago, Gold Coast handed the Kangaroos just their second win of the year last time out. If the Suns perform like that against Richmond, they will be punished.

The Tigers will be eager to bounce back from last weekend’s humiliation – and a clash with struggling Gold Coast provides them with the perfect opportunity.

Geelong to Beat Essendon

Geelong’s six-game winning streak was finally brought to an end by Brisbane last weekend. An uncharacteristic first-term display saw the Cats trail 31-1 after the opening quarter, leaving them with far too much work to do.

But having seen off the likes of Richmond, Port Adelaide, and the Bulldogs in recent weeks, Geelong will be confident of returning to winning ways in Round 16.

Essendon, meanwhile, suffered an 11-point loss to the Demons last time out. The Bombers headed into Round 15 on a run of four wins in five matches, yet they failed to overcome the ladder leaders.

Ben Rutten’s men have given a good account of themselves since losing six of their opening eight games this season. However, they have often struggled to compete with the strongest teams in the comp.

I expect Essendon to push the Cats all the way on Friday, but I’m confident that Geelong will come out on top.

Melbourne to Beat GWS

James Jordon and Christian Petracca each kicked a couple of goals as Melbourne survived a scare against the Bombers in the previous round. The Demons produced a gutsy display to fend off Essendon, holding onto first place in the process.

After going unbeaten in nine matches at the beginning of the year, Melbourne registered two losses in four outings before facing the Bombers. Still, they managed to hold on and enhance their minor premiership hopes last weekend.

On the flip side, Greater Western Sydney suffered a disappointing loss to Hawthorn in Round 15. The Giants were enjoying a promising run but threw away all their hard work against the Hawks.

GWS had only lost twice in seven games before last weekend (four wins, one draw), putting the club on the verge of the top eight. But the Giants missed the chance to break into the finals spots last weekend.

At the end of the day, the Demons’ consistency should see them get the better of GWS. But can they hold on to clinch the minor premiership?

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Brisbane to Beat Adelaide

Brisbane moved back up to third on the ladder – four points shy of the Bulldogs and eight points behind Melbourne – following an impressive 44-point victory over Geelong last time out.

Joe Daniher booted four goals against the Cats, while Charlie Cameron (3.3), Eric Hipwood (2.2), and Lincoln McCarthy (2.2) also contributed to the rout.

Having won nine of their last ten matches, the Lions are well and truly roaring at the moment. They are now the second-highest scorers in the AFL, while they also boast the third-best defensive record.

Adelaide’s slump continued last weekend with a ten-point loss to Carlton. Believe it or not – the Crows have lost eight of their previous ten outings and have only managed to win five of their 14 games in 2021.

With a mammoth 20-point gulf between the two sides, Brisbane should win this one with ease.

Fremantle to Beat Carlton

There is no hiding from the fact that Freo is on the rise. I mean, Justin Longmuir’s men currently find themselves level with eighth-place Richmond and within touching distance of a finals series berth.

Cast your mind back to last month, and the Dockers were enduring a three-match losing streak. Since then, they have beaten Sydney, Gold Coast, and Collingwood – taking 12 points from their last five games.

Rory Lobb (3.2) and Lachie Schultz (3.1) were the stars of the show against the Magpies, while Brett Bewley and Liam Henry also kicked a couple.

The Blues, on the other hand, snapped a three-match losing run of their own in the previous round. Following defeats to Sydney, West Coast, and GWS, Carlton finally returned to winning ways against Adelaide.

When you look at the form table, the Blues have lost seven of their last ten matches. The Dockers – who have won five of their previous ten – will fancy their chances of exploiting an inconsistent Carlton outfit.

Port Adelaide to Beat Hawthorn

The Power extended their hot streak to four wins in five games with a ten-point victory over the Swans last time out. Despite trailing after the first term, Port Adelaide took the game away from Sydney thanks to two dominant quarters on either side of half-time.

It is no secret that Port has struggled for consistency throughout the campaign. But over the past few weeks, the reigning minor premiers have upped their game.

In fairness, it could be argued that the Hawks have also upped their game recently. After winning just two of their opening 11 matches this year, Hawthorn has picked up two wins in three games – downing the two Sydney sides along the way.

That said, it is important to remember that second-bottom Hawthorn trails fourth-place Port by 24 points on the ladder. So although the Hawks have turned the corner, they are still nowhere near the Power.

Let’s face it – anything other than a comfortable Port win would be a massive shock here.

West Coast to Beat Sydney

With West Coast and Sydney locked on 32 points in the AFL standings, Sunday’s clash between the two sides is destined to be a tight affair.

Boasting an identical record (8-6-0), both teams find themselves just four points inside the top eight. And as if predicting the outcome of this matchup couldn’t get any harder, both sides have also recorded two wins and three losses in their past five matches.

Sydney heads into Round 16 on the back of two straight defeats, having lost the Hawthorn and Port. On the flip side, West Coast secured back-to-back wins over Carlton and Richmond before losing to the Dogs last weekend.

I think we need to take a look at the bigger picture here.

While the Swans have only managed to win four of their previous ten outings, the Eagles have picked up six victories in their last ten matches. Based on that, I’m backing West Coast to edge out Sydney on Sunday.

St Kilda to Beat Collingwood

In all honesty, it is difficult to predict how St Kilda will fare from one game to the next. Yes, the Saints crushed Richmond in Round 15. But that was only their second win in six matches.

Although Brett Ratten’s boys sit twelfth on the ladder and only four points outside the top eight, their attacking game has really let them down this year.

There may be six teams below them in the standings, yet they are the third-lowest scorers in the comp.

Coincidentally, the Magpies are the fourth-lowest scorers. Despite winning two of their last three games, Collingwood still sits just six points ahead of last-place North Melbourne.

There is no denying that Collingwood has enjoyed a slight upturn in recent weeks. However, the Pies lost nine of their opening 11 matches this season and have struggled to recover ever since.

Considering the Saints smashed Richmond in the previous round, they should be able to see off Collingwood.

Western Bulldogs to Beat North Melbourne

Do you remember what happened when the Kangaroos hosted the Bulldogs back in April? That’s right – the Dogs ended up notching a whopping 167 points, while the Roos only managed to rack up 39 in reply.

If the recent form of both sides is anything to go by, nobody would be shocked if the Dogs inflicted a similar thrashing on North this time around.

With both the strongest attack and meanest defense in the AFL, the Doggies boast the best percentage in the league (148.58). On the other hand, the Roos currently have the worst percentage (63.66), having chalked up the fewest points and conceded the most.

While the Dogs have won 11 games this season, North has claimed just two victories. As a result, there is a colossal 34-point gulf between the teams.

You probably won’t be surprised to learn that I’m backing the Bulldogs to dispatch the Roos on Sunday.

Round 16 AFL Picks and Best Bets

Having scoured the best Aussie rules betting sites, I have found some top AFL picks for Round 16. You can find my best bets for AFL Round 16 below.

  • Geelong vs. Essendon – Geelong to Win (1.30)

My first betting pick for AFL Round 16 takes us to Friday’s clash between Geelong and Essendon. As you can see, I’m starting the weekend with a relatively safe bet.

The Cats have won six of their last seven games and have all but secured a top-eight spot in the process. Meanwhile, the Saints have lost two of their previous three outings.

  • Sydney vs. West Coast – West Coast to Win (1.91)

The AFL oddsmakers view Sydney (1.83) as the slight favorite to win this one. But in my eyes, the price for the West Coast win offers the best value here.

Ultimately, the Eagles head into Round 16 in better form than Sydney. While the Western Australians seem to be growing into the season, the Swans appear to be fading.

  • Collingwood vs. St Kilda – St Kilda to Win (2.10)

I’m going against the bookies again and backing St Kilda to overcome Collingwood (1.73) on Sunday. After all, the Saints will be brimming with confidence after last weekend’s thrashing of Richmond.

Considering the Magpies have lost ten of their 14 matches this season, backing St Kilda at 2.10 feels like a no-brainer here.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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