Predictions and Betting Picks for AFL Round 15 (2021)

| June 24, 2021 11:35 am PDT

For the first time since Round 11, we have a full AFL schedule to enjoy – and bet on – this weekend. Travel restrictions have decimated the calendar in recent weeks, but there is finally a jam-packed fixture list on the horizon.

Third-place Geelong and fourth-place Brisbane kick things off on Thursday, June 24, before Richmond and St Kilda dish up some Friday night footy.

Ladder-leaders Melbourne face a potentially tricky test against in-form Essendon on Saturday, June 26, while the Eagles and the Bulldogs go head-to-head on Sunday.

Below, you can find my AFL predictions for Round 15, as I cover every match. I also share my AFL Round 15 picks at the end of this post, so make sure you stick around for some bets.

Let’s start with my Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats prediction and work our way through the rest of the predictions for AFL Round 15.

Geelong to Beat Brisbane

Can anyone stop Geelong right now!?

Not only have the Cats won each of their last six matches, but they have also claimed several notable scalps along the way.

They kicked off their winning streak with a 63-point crushing of Richmond before seeing off the Power and the Bulldogs.

Geelong’s resurgent run has thrust the club into third on the ladder – level with the second-place Dogs on 40 points and only four points behind frontrunners Melbourne.

The Lions enjoyed a lengthy unbeaten streak of their own not so long ago, chalking up seven straight victories. However, they were beaten by Melbourne a fortnight ago before narrowly edging out struggling North Melbourne last weekend.

This is destined to be a tight encounter between two of the top sides in the league. That said, the Cats’ momentum should get them over the line.

Richmond to Beat St Kilda

Richmond may have suffered a four-point loss to West Coast last time out, but the defending premiers seem to have found their feet after a shaky start to the season.

Let’s not forget that the Tigers racked up 100+ points in victories over Adelaide and Essendon before narrowly going down to the Eagles in their previous outing.

On the flip side, the Saints have lost four of their last five games. Their dreadful run includes a devastating 111-point defeat to the Dogs, while their only win during that period came against the lowly Kangaroos.

Oh, and can you remember what happened back in April? That’s right; the Tigers thrashed St Kilda by 86 points! With that in mind, Richmond shouldn’t struggle to overcome the Saints this time around.

North Melbourne to Beat Gold Coast

Following an eight-match losing streak at the beginning of the season, there have been signs of improvement from North Melbourne in recent weeks.

The Kangaroos beat Hawthorn last month and even managed to draw with GWS earlier this month. Although they were beaten by Brisbane last weekend, they only conceded 68 points and continued to give a good account of themselves.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about the Suns. The only managed to accumulate a measly 31 points in last weekend’s defeat to Port, meaning they have lost five of their previous six outings.

When you consider just how bad the Roos were at the start of the year, it’s hard to believe they have now suffered just two more losses than Gold Coast.

In my eyes, Saturday’s game against off-form Gold Coast presents North with an ideal opportunity to get their second win of the season on the board.

Collingwood to Beat Fremantle

All of a sudden, the Magpies find themselves just eight points behind Fremantle. It is no secret that Collingwood has endured a difficult campaign up to now, but they seem to be heading in the right direction.

Against all the odds, the Pies beat first-place Melbourne last time out – securing back-to-back wins for the very first time this season. Darcy Cameron kicked four goals in the 17-point victory, while Brody Mihocek (3.1) also starred.

The Dockers may have beaten Gold Coast in their previous match, but that isn’t exactly a big achievement at the moment. When you look at the bigger picture, they have actually lost five of their last seven encounters.

The Magpies’ newfound impetus gives them the edge here, so I’m backing them to overcome Freo this weekend.

Melbourne to Beat Essendon

Having notched a phenomenal nine-match winning streak at the start of the year, things haven’t quite gone to plan for Melbourne of late. The league leaders have registered two wins and two losses in their past four games, with a shock defeat to Collingwood coming last time out.

Still, the Demons remain four points clear at the top of the ladder. With guys like Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca in the form of their life, the team’s iffy patch isn’t likely to last much longer.

The Bombers will fancy their chances of upsetting the AFL odds this weekend, having won four of their previous five clashes. Jake Stringer booted four goals as his side beat the Hawks in Round 14, while Harrison Jones (2.1) and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (2.1) also got in on the act.

Given that Melbourne holds a 20-point lead over Essendon, this game is likely to be closer than most people think. Ultimately, the Dees superiority should shine through, though.

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Port Adelaide to Beat Sydney

It wouldn’t be unfair to say that both Port and Sydney have been wildly inconsistent in 2021. Fifth-place Port currently sits four points ahead of sixth-place Sydney, but neither side has been overly convincing this year.

The Powerhead into Round 15 on the back of an easy 50-point win over the Suns. Ken Hinkley’s men have now won three of their last four games, giving themselves an excellent chance of sealing a top-eight spot.

Meanwhile, Sydney was beaten by Hawthorn last time out. The Swans have won three of their last five matches, but they have also lost five of their previous nine.

Although I can see Port and Sydney producing a closely fought clash, the South Australians arguably have the upper hand.

Their defense has been far stronger than Sydney’s throughout the campaign, so I’m backing them to get the job done this weekend.

GWS to Beat Hawthorn

Jeremy Finlayson was the star of the show as GWS hammered Carlton last weekend. The 25-year-old kicked five goals against the Blues, leaving Toby Greene (4.2) and Harry Himmelberg (2.1) to play supporting roles.

Not only have the Giants lost one of their last four matches, but they have also suffered just three defeats in their previous ten outings.

As a result of their impressive run, the Giants now find themselves just two points outside the top eight. Notably, they also sit 14 points clear of second-bottom Hawthorn.

The Hawks ended a barren five-game losing streak by edging out Sydney in Round 13. However, they return to losing ways in the previous round – suffering a 13-point defeat to Essendon.

There is no hiding from the fact that Hawthorn has lost ten of their 13 encounters this year. Needless to say, the Giants should get the better of the Hawks without any problems on Sunday.

Western Bulldogs to Beat West Coast

After losing just one of their opening ten matches this year, the Western Bulldogs have hit a couple of stumbling blocks in recent weeks. Indeed, defeats to Melbourne and Geelong have seen them lose two of their last three games.

Of course, both Melbourne and Geelong are among the strongest teams in the comp. But the Bulldogs’ minor premiership hopes have been dented.

It is difficult to predict exactly how the Eagles will fare this weekend. Following a run of three straight wins, they suffered back-to-back defeats at the end of May. However, they have since bounced back – claiming two straight victories over Carlton and Richmond.

Ultimately, there is a reason why West Coast trails the Dogs by eight points on the ladder. The Eagles are likely to give Luke Beveridge’s men a run for their money, but the Dogs should see off West Coast.

Adelaide to Beat Carlton

With both sides enduring poor spells, this is undoubtedly the least glamorous tie of the round.

Adelaide managed to edge out St Kilda by six points last time out, but that result doesn’t tell the whole story. The Crows have lost seven of their previous nine matches and currently sit twelfth in the standings.

Fourteenth-place Carlton heads into Round 15 on a three-game losing streak. Funnily enough, the Blues have only suffered seven defeats in their last nine games and have only won four of their 13 outings this season.

Given that Adelaide has won more recently than Carlton, I can see the Crows claiming four points this weekend.

I mean, the Blues have been pretty terrible over the past few months, haven’t they?

My Top Betting Picks for AFL Round 15

That concludes my AFL predictions for Round 15. Now, let’s finish up by checking out the best AFL bets this weekend.

  • My Best AFL Bet for Round 15: Geelong to Win (2.20)

With the home-field advantage, the Lions are the bookies’ favorites to win this one. But I’m backing Geelong to come away from Round 15 with another victory. The Cats have won each of their previous six matches and are looking unstoppable at the moment.

  • My AFL Round 15 Safe Bet: GWS to Win (1.62)

The Giants secured an impressive 36-point victory over Carlton last weekend, meaning they have now lost just three of their previous ten outings. Considering the Hawks have lost ten of their 13 matches this season, odds of 1.62 for the home win seem very generous here.

  • My AFL Round 15 Longshot Bet: Essendon to Win (3.50)

The Demons should win this clash. However, they have lost two of their last four games and haven’t been at their best of late. By contrast, the Bombers have won four of their previous five matches. If they can pick up where they left off last weekend, they could upset Melbourne.

If you want to follow my Round 15 AFL picks, or if you want to place your own bets on this weekend’s footy, I highly recommend using the top-rated Aussie rules betting sites.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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