AFL Predictions and Best Bets for Round 14 (2021)

| June 17, 2021 6:35 am PDT

It’s safe to say that Round 13 dished up its fair share of surprises. There may have only been seven games last weekend, but there was no shortage of action.

Hawthorn secured a shock victory over Sydney, Collingwood caused an even bigger upset against Melbourne, while the Kangaroos and GWS produced the first draw of the season down in Tasmania.

Sadly, the extended travel restrictions mean we only have five matches to enjoy this weekend. But that won’t stop us from betting on AFL Round 14, will it?

The Cats and the Dogs kick off the weekend’s action on Friday night – and you can find my Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs prediction below, along with all my other AFL predictions for Round 14.

After my Round 14 AFL predictions, I also share the top AFL betting picks for Round 14 at the end of this post.

Let’s get right into it!

Western Bulldogs to Beat Geelong

The second-place Dogs sit just four points ahead of the third-place Cats in the standings, making Friday’s clash between the two sides vitally important.

Geelong heads into Round 14 on a five-game winning streak after dispatching Port Adelaide last time out. Jeremy Cameron booted five goals against the Power, while Tom Hawkins contributed four goals and four behinds.

As for the Doggies, they have only lost two of their 12 matches this season. Luke Beveridge’s men suffered a rare defeat to Melbourne a fortnight ago but bounced straight back with a comfortable win over Fremantle in their previous game.

The Cats boast the second-best defensive record in the AFL (817). But who has the best? Well, that will be the Dogs (790). On top of that, Beveridge’s side has also racked up the most points this year (1185).

This matchup brings together two top teams, yet I can see the Dogs edging out the Cats on Friday.

Port Adelaide to Beat Gold Coast

Despite the best efforts of Connor Rozee (5.1) and Charlie Dixon (4.1), Port Adelaide notched 91 points and still ended up losing to Geelong last week.

Still, let’s not forget that the Power have won eight of their 12 games this season.

Boasting one of the meanest backlines in the league, Port currently sits fifth on the ladder – 16 points clear of fifteenth-place Gold Coast.

On the topic of mean backlines, let’s talk about the Suns. Having conceded just 950 points, they are the only team in the bottom 13 with a sub-1000 defensive record – meaning only the top five sides have conceded fewer points.

But with a miserly 859 points to their name, it is important to remember that Stuart Dew’s men are the second-lowest scorers in the AFL. Only last-place North Melbourne has chalked up fewer points in 2021.

Considering Gold Coast’s attacking woes, Port should claim a relatively easy win over the Suns this weekend.

Brisbane to Beat North Melbourne

The gulf between Brisbane and North Melbourne is vast at the moment. But let’s face it – the gulf between pretty much every AFL team and North Melbourne is sizeable.

The Lions suffered only their fourth defeat of the campaign last time out, losing to the high-flying Demons. However, they accumulated seven straight wins before that and find themselves eight points inside the top eight as a result.

North produced a remarkable 14.10 (94) to 14.10 (94) draw with Greater Western Sydney last weekend. Nonetheless, the Kangaroos held a 28-point lead heading into the final term – meaning Sunday’s draw felt more like a defeat.

The Roos remain stuck at the foot of the standings, six points behind second-bottom Hawthorn and a whopping 26 points behind Brisbane.

It goes without saying that anything other than a convincing Lions win would be a colossal shock here.

GWS to Beat Carlton

It could be argued that last weekend’s draw kept the Giants’ top-eight hopes alive.

If they had lost to North, they would currently be eight points behind Hawthorn. But as things stand, they sit six points outside the final spots with a game in hand over many of their rivals.

Harry Himmelberg, Josh Kelly, Jeremy Finlayson, and Matt Flynn all kicked two goals against the Roos, but Daniel Lloyd’s last-gasp brace saw GWS snatch the draw.

Carlton’s poor season continued last time out as the Eagles became the latest side to beat the Blues. David Teague’s men have now lost eight of their 12 matches this year, including six of their previous eight.

The Giants were given a big wake-up call by North last weekend. With that in mind, I expect them to hit the ground running when the Blues come to town.

Leon Cameron’s men have only lost to Richmond and Brisbane in their previous six matches, beating Adelaide, Essendon, and West Coast along the way. They shouldn’t struggle to overcome off-form Carlton.

Essendon to Beat Hawthorn

Following three successive victories over Freo, North, and West Coast, Essendon would have been confident of upsetting the AFL odds against Richmond last time out.

Unfortunately, the Bombers failed to extend their winning streak to four games against the Tigers. But after a shaky start to the season, it definitely feels like they are heading in the right direction.

Hawthorn snapped a five-game losing run in the previous round, recording a 38-point win over Sydney. Although ten different players booted a goal for the Hawks at the SGC, we haven’t seen a Hawthorn performance like that in 2021.

Looking at the bigger picture – the Hawks have only managed to win three of their 12 matches this year and still sit second from bottom on the ladder.

Not only do the Bombers find themselves eight points clear of Hawthorn, but they have also gathered more points than 13 of their 17 AFL rivals. For that reason, I’m backing free-scoring Essendon to see off the struggling Hawks.

My Best Value AFL Bets for Round 14

Having scoured the best Aussie rules betting sites, I have found three top picks for AFL Round 14. Let’s get stuck into my best footy bets for this weekend.

  • Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs – Western Bulldogs to Win (2.25)

I understand why many bookmakers view Geelong (1.62) as the favorite to win this one. I mean, the Cats have the home-field advantage and head into Friday’s clash on a five-game winning streak.

However, the Bulldogs have been one of the most consistent teams in the AFL in 2021. Not only have they won ten of their 12 matches this year, but they also boast a phenomenal 150 percentage.

In my eyes, the price for the away win offers far better value here.

  • Gold Coast vs. Port Adelaide – Port Adelaide to Win (1.36)

Having clocked up twice as many points as Gold Coast (3.00) this season, the Power find themselves in a strong position. In fact, backing Port to beat the Suns feels like a very safe bet for AFL Round 14.

Granted, the South Australians are on an iffy run of three wins and three losses in their last six games. But we should remember that Gold Coast has suffered four defeats in their previous five outings.

  • Hawthorn vs. Essendon – Essendon to Win (1.57)

When you consider just how bad Hawthorn (2.38) has been this year, odds of 1.57 for the Essendon win seem very generous.

Yes, the Hawks beat the Swans last weekend. But how many times have we seen them produce a performance like that this season? That’s right – not very often!

Having secured three victories in their previous four games, I’m backing the Bombers to return to winning ways against a weak Hawthorn outfit.

That wraps up my AFL predictions and picks for Round 14. Join me next week as I preview all the Round 15 action.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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