AFL Predictions and Picks for Round 13 (2021)
Australia’s interstate travel restrictions continue to disrupt the AFL schedule, with this week’s footy kicking off on a Thursday for the first time since the early stages of the season.
In total, we have seven games to look forward to this week – and I will be giving my predictions for every match in AFL Round 13 below.
Port Adelaide and Geelong get the action underway on Thursday, June 10, before Melbourne and Collingwood wrap up Round of 13 on Monday, June 14. Richmond’s trip to West Coast has also been brought forward a week.
Keep reading to see my AFL Round 13 predictions. I share my best value betting picks for the upcoming games, too, so make sure you stick around for those.
Geelong to Beat Port Adelaide
Third-place Geelong and fifth-place Port Adelaide sit level on 32 points in the standings, having both enjoyed a successful first half of the 2021 AFL season.
However, it’s fair to say that Geelong heads into Round of 13 in better form than Port.
The Cats have won six of their last seven matches and have not conceded over 63 points in any of their previous four games.
On the flip side, the Power have lost two of their previous five outings. The South Australians racked up 115 points as they crushed Fremantle by 46 last time out, but the Bulldogs and the Lions have both made light work of Port in recent weeks.
Although some of the Aussie rules betting sites favor the home side to win this one, I’m confident that Geelong will be too strong for Port on Thursday.
Sydney to Beat Hawthorn
Due to the fixture shuffle, Sydney was one of only 12 teams participating in the previous round. The Swans secured back-to-back wins at the SCG, downing St Kilda by nine points.
Will Hayward kicked three goals, while Buddy Franklin, Isaac Heeney, and Logan McDonald each booted a couple. As a result, John Longmire’s men find themselves sixth on the ladder – four points clear of seventh-place West Coast.
At the opposite end of the standings, Hawthorn sits second from the bottom. The Hawks have lost nine of their 11 matches this term and head into Round 13 on a woeful five-game losing streak.
If the Kangaroos weren’t having such a bad season, the Hawks would almost certainly be rock bottom of the table at the moment. Still, even North Melbourne’s poor performances can’t hide how bad Hawthorn has been this year.
You probably won’t be shocked to learn that I’m backing the Swans to heap more misery on the Hawks this weekend.
Gold Coast to Beat Fremantle
With a game in hand over Fremantle, the Suns will be confident of upsetting the AFL odds in Round 13. Gold Coast sits just four points behind Freo in the standings and also boasts a superior percentage.
After beating Sydney and Collingwood, the Suns endured three losses on the spin. However, they returned to winning ways last time out – getting the better of Hawthorn.
Gold Coast notched up 113 points against the Hawks, with Ben King and Izak Rankine both bagging four goals. Alex Sexton (3.2) played his part in the 37-point victory, too, helping his side to move up the ladder in the process.
Meanwhile, the Dockers were beaten by the Dogs last weekend. Having made a promising start to the campaign, they have now lost five of their last six outings and have struggled for goals in recent games.
I can see the Suns picking up where they left off in their previous match and overcoming off-form Freo.
St Kilda to Beat Adelaide
Despite the best efforts of Tim Membrey (2.2) and Ryan Byrnes (2.0), the Saints suffered a narrow loss to the Swans last weekend. But let’s not forget that St Kilda has picked up three wins across the past six rounds.
Granted, Brett Ratten’s men find themselves twelfth in the table – eight points outside the top eight. But if their recent battling performances are anything to go by, the Saints should give the struggling Crows a run for their money this weekend.
Following a seventh defeat in eight attempts, Adelaide is in a real mess. The South Australians handed the Magpies just their third win of the year last time out, while Collingwood moved to within four points of the Crows.
Taylor Walker sits second on the goal-kicking leaderboard, although the Adelaide key forward has not been at his best in recent weeks. With the entire team enduring a rough patch, the Crows are likely to struggle in Round 13.
I expect Saturday’s clash to be close, but the Saints should triumph over Adelaide.
|2021 AFL COLEMAN MEDAL LEADERBOARD|
GWS to Beat North Melbourne
Let’s face it – the Giants have not been at their best recently. In fact, they have recorded three wins and three losses in their previous six games, underlining their inconsistency.
Thankfully for Leon Cameron’s men, they won’t need to be anywhere near their best to dispatch North Melbourne.
The Kangaroos picked up their one and only win of the season last month, edging out Hawthorn by seven points. But since then, they have suffered back-to-back defeats – taking their total loss count ten for the year.
Having watched the Roos’ dismal display against the Saints a fortnight ago, it feels like the AFL Wooden Spoon has already found a home in 2021.
North trails GWS by 16 points in the standings, and that tells you everything you need to know about which way this match will go.
Richmond to Beat West Coast
Following an inconsistent run of five losses in eight matches, it finally feels like Richmond has turned a corner.
The Tigers notched 111 points as they downed the Crows in Round 11 before smashing 123 points against Essendon last weekend. Securing back-to-back wins for the first time since March must have felt good for the reigning premiers.
Usual suspects like Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin played their part in last weekend’s victory, but Shai Bolton was undoubtedly the standout player. The 22-year-old has taken his all-around game to another level in recent weeks.
The Eagles secured a nervy win over Calton in the previous round, ending a two-game losing streak in the process. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict how West Coast will fare from one match to the next.
With that in mind, I’m backing the rejuvenated Tigers to take down the Eagles this weekend.
Melbourne to Beat Collingwood
The Demons’ premiership credentials were called into question after a rare loss to Adelaide last month. Still, Simon Goodwin’s men have silenced their critics over the past couple of weeks – overcoming two of their nearest challengers.
After seeing off the Dogs in Round 11, Melbourne dispatched Brisbane last weekend. Tom McDonald kicked six goals across the two statement wins, while Bayley Fritsch contributed five goals along the way.
We all know that Collingwood is enduring a season to forget. Still, the Magpies managed to pick up their third win of the year last time out, albeit against a free-falling Adelaide outfit.
At the end of the day, the gulf between Melbourne is Collingwood is a joke. The high-flying Dees hold a mammoth 32-point lead over the Pies, meaning anything other than a comfortable Melbourne win would be a colossal shock on Monday.
Top Betting Picks for AFL Round 13
I’m backing two underdogs to upset the AFL odds this week, along with one relatively safe bet. Here are my AFL Round 13 betting picks.
Port Adelaide vs. Geelong – Geelong to Win (2.05)
With Port Adelaide priced at 1.80, the bookmakers are favoring the home side to win this clash. But having tracked Geelong over the past few weeks, I can see the Cats coming out on top here.
Not only have the Cats won each of their last four games, but they have also won six of their previous seven. Meanwhile, the Power lost two of their last five matches and only scraped past Collingwood a fortnight ago.
Fremantle vs. Gold Coast – Gold Coast to Win (2.25)
The Suns will be brimming with belief after picking up their fourth win of the season last time out. Yes, they only beat Hawthorn. But the manner with which they crushed the Hawks was hugely impressive.
As the home team, Fremantle (1.62) heads into this clash as the bookies’ favorite. However, I think the juicy price for the away win is too good to miss. After all, the Dockers have lost five of their last six outings.
West Coast vs. Richmond – Richmond to Win (1.67)
The Tigers are back to their best; there is no denying that. Following a rough patch, the defending premiers are starting to look like the team that blew everyone away last year.
The Eagles (2.20) will fancy their chances of troubling Richmond, having won four of their previous six games. But in my eyes, the Tigers are too hot to handle right now.