AFL Predictions and Picks for Round 12 (2021)

| June 3, 2021 10:47 am PDT

Due to interstate travel restrictions within Australia, we only have six footy games to look forward to this weekend. Still, that won’t stop us from betting on AFL Round 12, right?

The schedule may be limited, but there are plenty of exciting matchups to sink our teeth into.

Melbourne and Brisbane kick things off on Friday, June 4, with the ladder-leading Demons sitting eight points ahead of the third-place Lions. Needless to say, this will be a tasty clash.

Elsewhere, Essendon and Richmond meet on Saturday, June 5, before the Dockers and the Bulldogs wrap up the weekend’s footy on Sunday, June 6.

So, without further ado, let’s get stuck into my AFL Round 12 predictions. I look at the AFL odds and share my top betting picks for the upcoming matches, too, so make sure you hang around for that.

Brisbane to Beat Melbourne

Brisbane heads into Round 12 on a seven-game winning streak, having chalked up 90+ points in every game during that period.

After securing victories over Essendon, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Richmond, the Lions beat GWS by a whopping 64 points last time out, with Mitch Robinson kicking four goals.

Brisbane looks set to be boosted by the return of 2020 Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale this weekend. The gun midfielder has spent several weeks on the sidelines with an ankle injury, so he will be eager to make his comeback against the likes of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver.

The Demons won each of their opening nine matches this year before losing to Adelaide by just a single point in Round 10. However, they wasted no time in returning to winning ways – claiming a hard-fought 28-point victory over the Dogs last weekend.

This is destined to be a tight game between two top teams. That said, I can see Brisbane edging out Melbourne. With seven straight wins behind them, the Lions carry heaps of momentum into Round 12.

Sydney to Beat St Kilda

Isaac Heeney, Buddy Franklin, and Tom Papley each kicked three goals as Sydney beat Carlton by 22 points in Round 11. Following a shaky run of four defeats in six matches, it was imperative that John Longmire’s side claimed maximum points last weekend.

The Swans are still in a strong position, though, having won seven of their opening 11 outings this term. They currently find themselves in sixth place – eight points inside the top eight – with third-place Brisbane just four points ahead.

After suffering back-to-back losses to the Cats and the Bulldogs, St Kilda also picked up a much-needed win last time out. The Saints sealed their fifth win of the campaign against North Melbourne, thanks largely to three goals from Mason Wood.

Despite sitting twelfth, the Saints have the third-worst percentage in the AFL (76.4).

Only the bottom two teams have a poorer record, so Brett Ratten’s men will need to start kicking more goals if they want to climb the ladder.

With that in mind, I’m backing the Swans to overcome the Saints without any real problems on Saturday.

Adelaide to Beat Collingwood

This matchup brings together two clubs in desperate need of points.

After winning three of their first four matches this year, the Crows have taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks – picking up just one victory in their last seven games.

Meanwhile, the Magpies have only managed to win one of their previous nine outings. They head in Round 12 on a three-match losing streak, having suffered defeats to Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong in May.

It is worth remembering that Adelaide still holds on the eight-point lead over Collingwood. Yes, both teams are struggling at the moment. But there is no denying that Collingwood is in a far worse position than Adelaide.

The Crows have shown glimpses of promise this season, while the Pies have continued to slide down the standings. For that reason, I expect Adelaide to clinch the victory on home soil.

Essendon to Beat Richmond

With six wins and five losses to their name in 2021, something isn’t quite right with the Tigers. Since Round 4, the defending premiers have strung together a run of LWLWLWLW – underlining the team’s inconsistency.

On a brighter note, Richmond notched up 100+ points for the third time this season last weekend.

Jack Riewoldt (5.2) and Callum Coleman-Jones (4.0) booted nine goals between them, while Shai Bolton and Trent Cotchin impressed after returning from injury.

On the flip side, the Bombers now sit just four points behind the Tigers following a third straight win last time out. Essendon beat Freo and North before getting the better of West Coast in the previous round.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Cale Hooker both kicked a couple of goals in last weekend’s 16-point victory over the Eagles. The former now has 27 goals to his name this term, while the latter has clocked up 26.

With Tippa and Hooker firing their side to three successive wins, I can see in-form Essendon downing the unpredictable Tigers on Saturday.

West Coast to Beat Carlton

When the Eagles clinched three straight victories over Freo, Hawthorn, and Adelaide last month, it looked as though they were heading in the right direction again. However, back-to-back defeats have seen them drop to seventh.

Granted, West Coast has won four of their last seven matches. But following losses to GWS and Essendon in recent weeks, the team will be eager to establish some consistency.

On the topic of consistency, the Blues struggled in that department throughout 2021. They have only managed to win four of their 11 matches this season, with five defeats in their previous seven encounters.

It is worth noting that Carlton has the best percentage in the bottom half of the standings (93.9). Still, they find themselves eight points behind the Eagles for a reason.

In my eyes, a match against off-form Carlton provides West Coast with the ideal opportunity to get back on track and return to winning ways.

Western Bulldogs to Beat Fremantle

With first-place Melbourne locking horns with third-place Brisbane on Friday, the second-place Dogs will know they have a real chance of returning to the AFL summit this weekend.

Despite losing to the Demons in the previous round, the Doggies still sit just four points behind the frontrunners.

Better still, they boast the best percentage in the league (150.6), having achieved six 100+ scores this year.

With Josh Bruce (33) and Aaron Naughton (28) both among the top seven goal-kickers in 2021, the Dogs’ forwards are likely to enjoy themselves against Fremantle’s questionable defense.

The Dockers started the season in red-hot form, winning four of their opening six games. But since then, they have suffered four defeats in five matches – conceding 115 points in last weekend’s 46-point loss to Port.

At the end of the day, the 16-point gulf between the Bulldogs and Freo is difficult to ignore. That’s why I’m confident that Luke Beveridge’s side will condemn the Dockers to a fifth defeat in six games on Sunday.

My AFL Round 12 Betting Picks

Having scoured the best Aussie rules betting sites, I have found three top picks for AFL Round 12. Here are my AFL Round 12 betting picks.

Essendon vs. Richmond – Essendon to Win (2.50)

Last weekend, I predicted that Essendon would get the better of West Coast. Remarkably, the Bombers were priced at 4.00 to beat the Eagles – and they managed to land me a tasty profit!

The bookmakers expect Richmond (1.53) to beat Essendon (2.50) on Saturday, but I’m backing the Bombers to upset the AFL odds once again.

After all, Essendon heads into Round 12 on a three-match winning streak, while the Tigers have lost five of their last nine games.

Carlton vs. West Coast – West Coast to Win (2.00)

Carlton (1.80) is the marginal favorite to beat West Coast (2.00) this weekend. Still, let’s not forget that the Blues have lost three of their previous four outings.

On the other hand, the Eagles have won three of their last five matches find themselves eight points ahead of Carlton as a result.

Given that you can double your money by backing West Coast to win on Sunday, I think it makes sense to side with the Eagles on this occasion.

Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs – Western Bulldogs to Win (1.36)

I can see Essendon and Carlton troubling the AFL oddsmakers in Round 12. However, I’m confident that Fremantle (3.00) won’t do the same against the Bulldogs (1.36).

The Dogs have won nine of their 11 matches this year and look set to challenge for silverware. By contrast, the Dockers have lost four of their last five games. Need I say more?

That’s it for my AFL Round 12 predictions and betting picks. I’ll be back next week to break down all the action in Round 13.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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