AFL Predictions and Picks for Round 11 (2021)

| May 26, 2021 7:22 am PDT

The Demons suffered their first loss of the season last weekend as the Crows secured a dramatic one-point victory at Adelaide Oval. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs notched their third consecutive win to leapfrog Melbourne in the standings.

Funnily enough, the top two go head-to-head on Friday night, with the teams locked on 36 points at the summit of the AFL standings.

Geelong and Brisbane will both aim to extend their winning streaks this weekend, coming up against Collingwood and GWS, respectively.

At the other end of the ladder, North Melbourne and Hawthorn are beginning to get cut adrift. However, the mid-table madness looks set to continue, with nine teams separated by just eight points.

Join me as I share my AFL Round 11 predictions and betting picks. Before we get to my best bets for AFL Round 11, let’s kick things off with my Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne prediction.

Western Bulldogs to Beat Melbourne

The Demons are human after all!

Following nine straight victories, Melbourne finally tasted defeat last weekend. Despite holding a 16-point lead midway through the fourth quarter, the Dees suffered an agonizing one-point loss to Adelaide – surrendering top spot on the ladder.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs chalked up their third straight win – and their ninth win of the season – in the previous round, beating St Kilda by a whopping 111 points. Aaron Naughton (5.4) and Marcus Bontempelli did the bulk of the damage, while Josh Bruce kicked three goals to take his overall tally to 30.

Having amassed 100+ points on no fewer than six occasions this year, the Doggies boast an outrageous percentage of 161.9%.

By contrast, the Demons’ percentage stands at 137.7%.

This is obviously destined to be a tight match between two top sides, but I’m backing the Dogs to edge it and condemn Melbourne to a second straight loss.

Geelong to Beat Collingwood

After clinching their third win on the spin, it’s safe to say the Geelong is starting to gather some momentum.

The Cats beat Richmond in Round 8 before seeing off the Saints the following weekend. Last time out, they notched up 91 points in a 34-point victory over the Suns, with Jeremy Cameron booting three goals.

Only the Dogs and the Demons sit above Geelong in the standings.

At the other end of the ladder, only North Melbourne and Hawthorn are below struggling Collingwood. The Magpies suffered their eighth defeat in ten games last weekend and now find themselves 20 points behind Geelong.

The gulf between these two sides is vast at the moment, so the Cats are likely to inflict yet another defeat on the Pies.

Brisbane to Beat GWS

There is no stopping Brisbane right now.

Having kicked off the season with a shaky run of three losses in four matches, the Lions have turned things around over the past couple of months. They crushed Hawthorn by 28 points in Round 10, clocking up their sixth consecutive win in the process.

Zac Bailey and Eric Hipwood both kicked four goals as Brisbane amassed 93+ points for the sixth weekend running. Oh, and let’s not forget that the Lions faced the reigning premiers last time out.

Funnily enough, the Giants have won five of their last seven encounters and head into Round 11 on the back of a hugely impressive victory over West Coast. Unfortunately for them, they come up against the team with the longest current winning streak in the AFL this weekend.

I expect GWS to give the Lions a run for their money at the Gabba, but I can’t see Brisbane losing this one.

St Kilda to Beat North Melbourne

It goes without saying that St Kilda’s clash with North Melbourne isn’t getting many footy fans excited ahead of Round 11.

The Saints were nothing short of abysmal in their 111-point loss to the Dogs last weekend, while the Kangaroos remain rock bottom of the table following a ninth defeat in ten games last time out.

The Roos secured their first win of the campaign a fortnight ago, edging out Hawthorn. But they swiftly returned to losing ways in the previous round, falling to Essendon by 72 points.

St Kilda appeared to have turned a corner after back-to-back victories over the Hawks and the Suns earlier in the month. But since then, they have been humiliated by the Cats and the Dogs.

This match won’t be pretty; that’s for sure.

However, the Saints have been marginally better than the Roos this year, so I’m backing the hosts to overcome the visitors.

Essendon to Beat West Coast

Following a crazily inconsistent start to the season (WLWLWL), West Coast beat Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Adelaide to steady the ship. But last weekend, GWS ended the Eagles’ resurgent run.

Nine different players kicked at least one goal in Sydney, although Jamie Cripps (2.1) and Jack Petruccelle (2.0) were the only men to boot more than one. With guys like Jack Darling (1.2) and Josh Kennedy (1.2) misfiring, West Coast looked toothless in attack.

In fairness, the Bombers are also enduring an inconsistent campaign. They have recorded four wins and six losses so far, although three of those wins have come in their last five games.

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Peter Wright, and Harrison Jones each kicked three goals in last weekend’s 72-point rout over North, while Cale Hooker, Kyle Langford, Nik Cox, and Alec Waterman all contributed two goals.

The Aussie rules betting sites are favoring West Coast to beat Essendon – and that is completely understandable. But I believe the in-form Bombers stand a genuine chance of exploiting the unpredictable Eagles.

Gold Coast to Beat Hawthorn

This matchup brings together two sides in poor form.

The Hawks have only managed to win two of their ten outings this term and head into Round 11 on the back of four straight defeats. On the flip side, Gold Coast is enduring a three-match losing streak for the second time this season.

While Hawthorn supporters have had very little to cheer about in 2021, Suns fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Young gun Ben King has already kicked 28 goals this year, putting him fourth on the Coleman Medal leaderboard. Nick Holman and Matt Rowell may be sidelined for different reasons, but Gold Coast has showed heaps of promise in recent matches.

Given that Hawthorn has been one of the worst teams in the league this term, I expect the Suns to return to winning ways this weekend.

Adelaide to Beat Richmond

Adelaide produced one of the performances of the 2021 AFL season to end Melbourne’s 100% record last weekend. The Crows trailed for much of the match before kicking three goals in final quarter to seal the deal.

Having won three of their opening four games, the Crows went on to suffer five straight defeats. However, last weekend’s monumental victory over the Demons showed everyone exactly what they are capable of.

Meanwhile, the Tigers suffered their fifth loss of the season last time out – going down to Brisbane. A wretched seven-game streak (LWLWLWL) has seen the defending premiers drop to ninth on the ladder, just four points ahead of Adelaide.

It is no secret that Richmond is struggling for form at the moment, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Crows take full advantage of the Tigers’ woes this weekend.

Only one man – Carlton’s Harry McKay – has kicked for goals than Adelaide’s Taylor Walker this year. If Walker is in the mood on Sunday, the Tigers will be in trouble.

Sydney to Beat Carlton

The Swans kicked off the campaign with four straight wins before registering a couple of losses. But across the previous four rounds, they have picked up victories over Geelong and Collingwood, along with narrow losses to Melbourne and Fremantle.

Buddy Franklin booted six goals in Sydney’s two-point defeat to Freo last time out, yet the veteran was unable to get his side over the line. Still, Franklin is on course to kick his magical 1000th goal this season.

Carlton may have beaten Hawthorn last weekend. But let’s face it – overcoming the Hawks is not a difficult task at the moment.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Blues have only managed to win two of their last six matches and have lost six of their ten outings in 2021. They currently find themselves twelfth in the standings – eight points behind sixth-place Sydney.

With Carlton struggling, I can see the Swans chalking up back-to-back victories at the SCG.

Port Adelaide to Beat Fremantle

Last weekend, Port Adelaide very nearly suffered consecutive losses for the first time in 2021. Collingwood led the Power for almost the entire match before Ken Hinkley’s men kicked a flurry of late goals to snatch a one-point win.

Port has won seven of their ten games this year, and in fairness, each of their three defeats have come against top teams – West Coast, Brisbane, and the Dogs.

After winning four of their opening six outings this season, the Dockers suffered three successive losses. But they managed to return to winning ways in Round 10, seeing of Sydney by just two points.

Rory Lobb (4.0) was the star of the show last weekend. However, Matt Taberner endured a quiet match – kicking just one goal in an uncharacteristic display.

Given that Port leads Freo by eight points on the ladder, I can’t see the Dockers upsetting the AFL odds this weekend.

Top Betting Picks for AFL Round 11 (2021)

That concludes my AFL predictions for Round 11, but we’re not finished yet. Here are my AFL Round 11 betting picks.

As you can see, I have opted for one safe bet and two riskier wagers this week. But having done my research, I’m confident the we can win some money on the footy this weekend.

Gold Coast vs. Hawthorn – Gold Coast to Win (1.40)

We all know that the Suns have registered a few disappointing results of late, but the Hawks (2.88) are in a far worse position than Gold Coast. With a measly percentage of 75.2%, the Hawks find themselves second from bottom in the standings – four points behind the Suns.

As I have already mentioned, the Suns have showed tons of promise in recent matches. For that reason, I’m backing the hosts to claim an easy win over the visitors.

West Coast vs. Essendon – Essendon to Win (4.00)

The bookmakers view West Coast (1.22) as the clear favorite to win this one. But in my eyes, the price for the home victory is way too low here. Let’s not forget that the Eagles have lost four of their previous nine matches.

On the other hand, the Bombers head into Round 11 on the back of a mammoth win over North and have now won three of their last five games. At 4.00, backing in-form Essendon to beat West Coast makes perfect sense.

Richmond vs. Adelaide – Adelaide to Win (4.00)

While the Crows were busy ruining Melbourne’s 100% record last weekend, the Tigers (1.22) suffered their fifth defeat in eight outings. Of course, Richmond is the bookies’ favorite to win on Sunday. But Adelaide will have other ideas.

The Crows will be brimming with belief as they prepare to fly south, while the Tigers will be extremely low on confidence. With that in mind, I’m backing Adelaide to upset the AFL odds and claim another high-profile scalp this weekend.

Make sure you join me next week as I share my predictions and picks for AFL Round 12.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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