AFL Predictions and Picks for Round 10 (2021)

| May 19, 2021 9:39 am PDT

Brisbane and Richmond kick off Round 10 of the 2021 AFL season on Friday, May 21, as both sides aim to enhance their top-eight hopes.

Following last weekend’s convincing QClash victory, the Lions are enjoying a five-match winning streak. Meanwhile, the Tigers have only managed to win three of their previous seven games.

The Kangaroos will look to build on their first win of the season when they come up against Essendon on Sunday. But before that, Adelaide will attempt to end Melbourne’s 100% record on Saturday.

Below, I give my predictions for every AFL game in Round 10. I also look at the AFL odds before sharing some AFL Round 10 betting picks.

There is only one place to start – my Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers prediction.

Brisbane to Beat Richmond

Can anyone stop Brisbane at the moment?

Following a shaky start to the season, the Lions have turned things around in style – winning each of their previous five matches.

Last weekend’s 73-point demolition of Gold Coast saw them notch up 100+ points for the third time in five games. Let’s not forget that they also kicked 93 points against Port Adelaide and 95 against Fremantle.

Despite a dramatic victory over GWS last time out, Richmond still sits four points behind Brisbane in the standings. Without injured stars such as Trent Cotchin, Shai Bolton, Shane Edwards, Dion Prestia, and Kane Lambert, the Tigers are likely to struggle against the Lions.

I expect in-form Brisbane to get the better of a flagging Richmond side on Friday.

Carlton to Beat Hawthorn

Unfortunately for the Blues, they will have to complete the season without David Cuningham, who will miss the remainder of the campaign after rupturing his ACL in Round 9. Still, Carlton shouldn’t struggle to overcome Hawthorn.

The Hawks have been dreadful this season, winning just two of their nine matches. They head into Round 10 on the back of three straight defeats, having handed winless North Melbourne their first victory of the season last weekend.

Although Carlton only leads Hawthorn by four points on the AFL ladder, it feels like the gulf between the teams is far bigger at the moment.

I’m backing the Blues to dispatch the Hawks this weekend and widen the gap between the sides.

Geelong to Beat Gold Coast

Geelong picked up their sixth win of the season with a low-scoring victory over St Kilda last weekend. Brad Close, Tom Hawkins, and Gary Rohan each kicked two goals to keep the club third in the standings.

The Cats have now won four of their previous five games, and even without Patrick Dangerfield (who is expected to return to action in Round 13), they look more than capable of continuing their hot streak when the Suns come to town.

Gold Coast was completely outclassed by Brisbane last time out and has now suffered back-to-back defeats. In fact, Stuart Dew’s men have lost five of their last seven matches – leaving them fifth from bottom in the standings.

Needless to say, anything other than a comfortable Geelong win would be a massive shock here.

Melbourne to Beat Adelaide

Tom McDonald (3.1) and Bayley Fritsch (3.0) were the stars of the show as the Demons extend their winning streak to nine games (yes, NINE GAMES!) last weekend.

Melbourne has been immense this year, and with guys like Luke Jackson and Jack Viney poised to return from injury, the league leaders are about to get a lot stronger.

The Crows teased everyone by winning three of their opening four games this season, but they have since suffered five straight losses. Having racked up a combined total of just 153 points across their previous three outings, they are destined to struggle against Melbourne’s solid defense.

You probably won’t be surprised to hear that I’m backing the Dees to maintain their 100% record when visiting the Adelaide Oval.

Western Bulldogs to Beat St Kilda

The Bulldogs were made to work extremely hard by Port Adelaide in the previous round, but they still managed to secure their eighth win in nine games. Aaron Naughton booted four goals, while Cody Weightman, Marcus Botempelli, and Josh Bruce also contributed.

Understandably, everyone is talking about high-flying Melbourne at the moment. But let’s not forget that the Dogs remain within just four points of the league leaders.

The Saints took advantage of the Hawks and the Suns in recent rounds. However, they were put in their place by Geelong last weekend. They currently find themselves eleventh on the AFL ladder – 16 points behind the Doggies.

Looking at the contrasting form of these two sides, I will be hugely surprised if St Kilda upset the odds on Saturday.

Sydney to Beat Fremantle

In a matter of weeks, Sydney has gone from being one of the most consistent teams in the league to one of the most unpredictable.

The Swans kicked off their campaign with four straight wins before losing three of their next four matches. But following last weekend’s victory over Collingwood, they will surely be confident of sealing consecutive wins against struggling Fremantle.

The Dockers have chalked up the sixth-most shots in the AFL this year (238), yet they have the worst goal accuracy in the league – converting just 40.3% of their shots. Nat Fyfe’s record of 2.16 sums up the team’s woes perfectly.

Granted, the Swans have not been at their best of late. But they should be able to overcome a toothless Freo outfit.

West Coast to Beat GWS

Having strung together a shaky run of three wins and three losses in their opening six outings, the Eagles looked set for a difficult season. However, they have turned things around in recent weeks.

West Coast has averaged 112 points across their previous three games – beating Freo, Hawthorn, and Adelaide along the way. Jack Darling kicked five goals against the Crows last weekend, while Josh Kennedy also seems to be finding some form.

The Giants gave a good account of themselves last weekend, only to suffer an agonizing four-point loss to Richmond. Although Leon Cameron’s men have won four of their last six matches, they tend to struggle against the AFL’s top teams.

Unfortunately for them, West Coast is looking like one of the strongest sides in the league right now.

Port Adelaide to Beat Collingwood

It’s fair to say that the Power are struggling to find the same consistency that saw them clinch the minor premiership last year. Still, they have won six of their nine games this season and should be able to secure a top-eight finish.

Busy midfielder Ollie Wines has clocked up the fourth-most disposals in the league, while Orazio Fantasia, Mitch Georgiades, and Charlie Dixon have kept the goals flowing up front.

On the flip side, the Magpies suffered their seventh defeat in nine matches last weekend – losing to Sydney by 30 points. Only two sides sit below Collingwood on the AFL ladder, so I can’t see them troubling Port Adelaide.

Port should bounce back from last weekend’s tough defeat to the Doggies and get the better of struggling Collingwood.

North Melbourne to Beat Essendon

North Melbourne FINALLY won a game of footy last time out!

Following eight failed attempts, the Kangaroos picked up their first win of the season against Hawthorn. Cameron Zurhaar (4.2) put in an eye-catching performance, while Taylor Garner (3.1) also impressed.

Meanwhile, Essendon edged out Freo by seven points. However, that was only the Bombers’ second victory in six games and just their third of the entire campaign.

It goes without saying that this matchup brings together two of the weakest teams in the league right now. But after tasting victory for the very first time in 2021 last weekend, the Roos will head into Round 10 brimming with belief.

I’m backing North to carry their momentum into Sunday’s clash and clinch successive wins.

Top Betting Picks for AFL Round 10 (2021)

Having made my AFL Round 10 predictions, I think I’ve found some good value AFL bets for the weekend. Let’s get stuck into my AFL Round 10 betting picks.

Fremantle vs. Sydney – Sydney to Win (1.90)

The bookmakers can’t seem to separate Freo and Sydney at the moment, with both teams priced at 1.90 to win on Saturday. That said, I’m confident that Sydney will seal their fourth win in five games this weekend.

The Dockers’ inaccuracy in front of goal is a genuine cause for concern. They can’t expect to beat teams of the Swans’ caliber if they continue to miss chances, so I expect Sydney to get the better of Freo.

GWS vs. West Coast – West Coast to Win (1.57)

The Eagles are starting to look like the real deal again. They went through a shaky period a few weeks ago, but they have come out the other side and head into Round 10 on the back of three consecutive victories.

Admittedly, the Giants (2.3) have upped their game recently, too. But when they face West Coast on Sunday, they are likely to find it difficult to keep Darling and Kennedy quiet.

Essendon vs. North Melbourne – North Melbourne to Win (3.25)

Essendon (1.33) is the bookies’ favorite to win this one – and you can’t argue with that viewpoint. After all, the Kangaroos have lost eight of their nine matches this season.

However, the Roos secured a morale-boosting victory over Hawthorn last weekend – proving that they’ve got what it takes to compete this year.

The Bombers’ price is far too low to bother with here, so I recommend backing North at the juicy price of 3.25.

Whether you like the look of my AFL picks, or you fancy making your own predictions for AFL Round 10, make sure you only lay down your wagers at the top Aussie rules betting sites.

Ben Morris
Ben Morris

Ben is a sportswriter and tipster who specializes in soccer. Currently based in the UK, he has traveled all around the world watching – and betting on – his beloved sport.

Alongside his regular soccer content, Ben publishes blogs and picks for cricket, Formula 1, Aussie rules, darts, and various other sports.

Ben is a diehard fan of Nottingham Forest and England, so he hasn’t had much to cheer about in recent years!

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