AFL Predictions and Best Bets – Round 6, 2021
The Swans’ winning start to 2021 was finally brought to an end in the Sydney Derby last weekend, meaning the Bulldogs and Melbourne are the only teams left with a 100% record this season.
At the other end of the standings, North Melbourne remains the only winless side this year. It doesn’t get any easier for the Kangaroos this weekend, with in-form Fremantle up next.
The Giants and the Dogs kick off the Round 6 action on Friday before Geelong and West Coast go head-to-head.
Elsewhere, the Demons and the Tigers face off in what promises to be a tasty encounter on Saturday, with Port Adelaide and St Kilda wrapping up the weekend’s footy on Sunday.
If you’re after some AFL Round 6 predictions, you’ve come to the right place. Below, I give my AFL predictions for every Round 6 game before sharing my best value AFL betting picks for this weekend.
Western Bulldogs to Beat GWS
The Bulldogs are the best team in the AFL at the moment, and there is no denying that.
Not only have Luke Beveridge’s men won each of their five games this season, but they have also thrashed the majority of their opponents – notching up 100+ points against Gold Coast, North Melbourne, and West Coast.
Having said that, last weekend’s dramatic victory over the Swans means they head into Round 6 on the back of two straight wins.
GWS will probably give the Dogs a run for their money, but I expect the league leaders to maintain their 100% record on Friday.
West Coast to Beat Geelong
Sixth-place West Coast and eighth-place Geelong have picked up three wins apiece this term, with the former securing an impressive 27-point victory over Collingwood last time out.
Oscar Allen and Jack Darling both kicked five goals against the Magpies. We all know what Darling is capable of, but at just 22, Allen is beginning to emerge as one of the best young players in the AFL.
Following a loss to Melbourne in Round 5, Geelong beat North Melbourne last weekend. However, it is no secret that playing the Kangaroos is a walk in the park right now.
The Cats will need to perform a lot better to overcome the Eagles. Unfortunately for them, I think West Coast is too strong.
Sydney to Beat Gold Coast
Sydney’s winning start to 2021 was finally brought to an end by GWS last weekend. The Swans actually kicked more goals than the Giants, but a whopping 17 behinds saw Leon Cameron’s side claim the Sydney bragging rights.
While the Swans have won four of their five matches this season, the Suns have lost four of their five outings. After beating the Roos in Round 2, Gold Coast has suffered three straight defeats to Adelaide, Carlton, and the Bulldogs.
The Suns lost by 62 points to the Doggies in the previous round. If the Swans’ early-season form is anything to go by, they should get the better of Gold Coast without any real problems this weekend.
Brisbane to Beat Carlton
Brisbane shared the goals around last time out, with six different players kicking two or more goals in a dominant 57-point win over Essendon.
The Lions may have lost their opening two games this season, but they have now won two of their previous three matches. With new signing Joe Daniher leading the way, the Queenslanders are starting to rediscover the kind of form that saw them do so well last year.
On the flip side, the Blues find themselves in the bottom half of the standings after losing to Port Adelaide in Round 5. Carlton is struggling for goals this term, and that doesn’t bode well for the visit of Brisbane.
The Lions have upped their game recently, so I’m backing them to come out on top at Marvel Stadium.
Richmond to Beat Melbourne
Melbourne’s winning streak has to come to an end at some point, doesn’t it?
The Demons have kicked off the campaign with five straight victories, capping off a remarkable run by sealing a 60-point win over the Hawks in the previous round. But I can see them struggling when the Tigers come to town.
The reigning premiers flexed their muscles last weekend, accumulating 134 points while humiliating St Kilda.
This is likely to be a close game, but I expect Richmond to edge out Melbourne.
Fremantle to Beat North Melbourne
The Dockers have made a solid start to 2021, winning three of their opening five matches. But even if they were playing poorly at the moment, I would still back them to beat the Kangaroos.
It is no exaggeration to say that North Melbourne has been downright dreadful this year. I mean, the Roos are the only team without a win to their name this season and head into Round 6, carrying a laughable percentage of just 45.4%.
Needless to say, Freo should win this one with ease.
Adelaide to Beat Hawthorn
The Crows stunned everyone by winning three of their first four games this term. However, they were unable to prevent a 12-point loss to the Dockers last weekend.
Having kicked two goals against Freo, Taylor Walker remains at the summit of the Coleman Medal leaderboard. The forward is averaging 4.4 goals per game at the moment, meaning Hawthorn’s leaky defense is likely to feel Walker’s wrath on Saturday.
The Hawks have only managed to win one of their five outings this year and head into Round 6 on a four-match losing streak. I expect them to suffer a fifth straight defeat against Adelaide this weekend.
Collingwood to Beat Essendon
If Brody Mihocek’s kicking accuracy had been better in Round 5, Collingwood would have pushed West Coast a lot closer. As it turned out, the Tasmanian chalked up five behinds in the Magpies’ defeat to the Eagles, kicking just two goals in the process.
Still, I can see Collingwood’s forwards enjoying far more success against Essendon’s backline.
Brisbane became the second team this season to register 100+ points against the Bombers last time out, while Ben Rutten’s men managed to kick just six goals in reply.
We all know that both Collingwood and Essendon have endured a difficult start to 2021, but it feels as though Collingwood is on the up. For that reason, I’m backing the Pies to edge out the Bombers.
Port Adelaide to Beat St Kilda
Having suffered three defeats in their last four games, the Saints currently have the second-worst percentage in the AFL (71.4%). Their percentage took a massive blow following last weekend’s 86-point loss to the Tigers, and it isn’t likely to improve against Port Adelaide.
The Power will be confident of making it five wins in six matches on Sunday, especially with Orazio Fantasia and Mitch Georgiades in red-hot form. The forwards have kicked 21 goals between them this season, while guys like Ollie Wines and Travis Boak have shone in the midfield.
Anything other than a comfortable Port win would be a big shock here.
My Best Bets for AFL Round 6
That concludes my predictions for AFL Round 6. It’s now time to check out my top value betting picks for Round 6.
- Geelong vs. West Coast – West Coast to Win (2.25)
- Carlton vs. Brisbane – Brisbane to Win (1.62)
- Hawthorn vs. Adelaide – Adelaide to Win (2.25)
Geelong (1.62) heads into Round 6 as the bookmakers’ favorite to beat the Eagles (2.25), but in my eyes, the price for the West Coast win offers far better value.
The Eagles have won three of their five matches this season and have already seen off Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, and Collingwood. I expect them to get the better of the Cats this weekend.
Carlton (2.25) may sit level with Brisbane (1.62) on eight points, but the Queenslanders seem to have found their way recently. The manner with which the Lions crushed Essendon last weekend was hugely impressive, so I’m backing them to beat the Blues on Saturday.
Given that Hawthorn (1.62) currently sits second from the bottom in the standings, I really like the look of the price for the Adelaide win (2.25) here.
The Hawks have won just one of their five games this year, while the Crows have picked up three victories in that time. I can see the Crows extending their promising start to 2021 against lowly Hawthorn.
Whether you’re following my picks or you’re making your own AFL Round 6 predictions, make sure you place your wagers with the top-rated Aussie rules betting sites.