AFL Predictions and Best Bets for Round 9 (2021)

By Ben Morris in Aussie Rules
| May 12, 2021 10:30 am PDT

Believe it or not – Melbourne is STILL unbeaten this year. The Demons picked up their eighth straight win last weekend, meaning Carlton is tasked with tarnishing their 100% record in Round 9.

Elsewhere, Port Adelaide hosts the Bulldogs on Saturday, May 15, as both sides aim to close the gap on Melbourne. The Dogs sit second on the AFL ladder – four points ahead of third-place Port.

We also have the first QClash of the season to look forward to this weekend. Brisbane heads into the Queensland derby on the back of four straight wins, leaving the Suns eight points behind.

Join me as I share my predictions for AFL Round 9 – and make sure you stick around for my AFL Round 9 betting picks at the end of this post.

Let’s start with my Geelong vs. St Kilda prediction.

Geelong to Beat St Kilda

The Cats have struggled against some of the lesser teams in the league this year, most notably Adelaide in Round 1. However, they have also claimed several big scalps in 2021.

Standout victories over Brisbane and West Coast have come alongside expected wins against Hawthorn and North Melbourne. However, last weekend’s demolition of Richmond is undoubtedly their best win of the season so far.

Geelong crushed the reigning premiers by a whopping 63 points last time out, with Jeremy Cameron (6.2), Gary Rohan (5.0), and Tom Hawkins (4.1) all playing starring roles.

Meanwhile, St Kilda edged out Gold Coast by nine points in Round 8. The Saints have now won each of their last two games, but they have also lost four of their previous seven.

At the end of the day, it is difficult to ignore the damage that Geelong inflicted on Richmond last weekend. If the Cats can chalk up 126 points against the Tigers, they should be able to see off the Saints with ease.

Sydney to Beat Collingwood

Having won all of their opening four matches this season, the Swans have taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks – losing three of their last four outings.

Thankfully for them, Collingwood visits the SCG on Saturday.

The Magpies ended a sorry five-game losing streak while picking up just their second win of the campaign last weekend. But let’s face it – beating North Melbourne is nothing to write home about.

Nathan Buckley’s men have been downright dreadful this year, and with Jeremey Howe joining Nathan Murphy and Jordan Roughead on the club’s injury list, life isn’t going to be any easier for the Pies in the coming weeks.

I’m backing the Swans to rediscover their early-season form and down an unconfident Collingwood side.

Hawthorn to Beat North Melbourne

Apart from wins in Round 1 and Round 6, Hawthorn has had very little to get excited about in 2021. The Hawks have only managed to take eight points from a possible 32 this year, leaving them second from bottom in the standings.

Funnily enough, the only team below them is North Melbourne.

Following an eighth straight loss, the Kangaroos remain the only side without a win to their name this season.

While it does feel like they are getting closer to their first victory of the campaign, I can’t see them beating Hawthorn.

Jaidyn Stephenson became the latest casualty in North’s injury-ravaged season when he fractured his wrist in last weekend’s loss to Collingwood. He joins 14 (yes, 14) of his teammates on the sidelines.

The Roos will continue to battle on Saturday, but they are likely to come up short.

Brisbane to Beat Gold Coast

The big news ahead of the first QClash of the season is that Gold Coast star Touk Miller will miss Saturday’s derby through suspension. The midfielder has racked up more disposals than any other GC player this term, so his presence will be missed.

The Suns appeared to be heading in the right direction following back-to-back wins over Sydney and Collingwood. However, they scored a measly 54 points en route to suffering a disappointing loss to St Kilda last time out.

On the flip side, the Lions are flying at the moment. Having lost three of their opening four matches, they approach Round 9 on the back of four straight wins.

Charlie Cameron (3.5) and Joe Daniher (2.0) handed Brisbane a 24-point victory over Fremantle last weekend. Cameron now has 15 goals this year, while Daniher has 14 under his belt.

I expect Gold Coast to put up a good fight at Metricon Stadium, but the Lions should be too strong for the Miller-less Suns.

Richmond to Beat GWS

Richmond’s inconsistent campaign took another twist last weekend, as Geelong thrashed the defending premiers by 63 points.

Sitting on a record of four wins and four losses after eight games, the Tigers find themselves eighth on the AFL ladder and already trail frontrunner Melbourne by 16 points.

On the topic of inconsistent campaigns, let’s talk about Greater Western Sydney. Funnily enough, the Giants have also picked up four wins and four defeats in 2021, although they sit just behind Richmond in the standings.

GWS has managed to notch up 100+ points in successive matches, but it is worth noting that Leon Cameron’s men conceded 105 against the Bombers in Round 8.

We all know that both Richmond and GWS have endured an indifferent year up to now. That said, the Tigers have more than enough quality to down the Giants.

Western Bulldogs to Beat Port Adelaide

When the news broke that Lachie Hunter finished last weekend’s victory over Carlton with a broken hand, the Bulldogs’ supporters could have been forgiven for fearing the worst. However, the gun midfielder is in line to face Port Adelaide on Saturday night.

It goes without saying that Hunter’s inclusion will be massive for the Dogs, who have won seven of their eight matches this year.

Luke Beveridge’s men kicked off their campaign with six straight wins before losing to Richmond in Round 7. But they bounced back with a hefty victory over Carlton last time out, while Josh Bruce added five goals to his 25-goal tally for the season.

Let’s not forget that Port is enjoying another excellent season, too. The Power have won six of their eight games in 2021 and clinched an easy 49-point Showdown win last weekend.

This is destined to be a tense affair between two top teams. Still, I can see the Doggies edging out Port on this occasion.

Fremantle to Beat Essendon

Fremantle’s impressive three-game winning streak feels like a long time ago now, with losses to West Coast and Brisbane coming in the last two weeks. But the Dockers are still in a strong position.

Adam Cerra looks set to return to the team this weekend, and with key performers like Alex Pearce and Luke Ryan also on the road to recovery, it shouldn’t be too long before Freo returns to winning ways.

On the other hand, the Bombers can count themselves extremely unlucky to have only won one of their previous three outings. Indeed, Essendon has clocked up 100+ points for three consecutive weeks but has somehow registered one win and two defeats.

As things stand, tenth-place Freo sits eight points clear of fifteenth-place Essendon on the ladder.

Although I expect this to be a close match, I’m backing the Dockers to get the better of the Bombers on Sunday.

Melbourne to Beat Carlton

Is Melbourne going to lose a game of footy this year?

The Demons extended their remarkable winning streak to eight games last weekend, sealing a hard-fought nine-point victory over the Swans. Tom McDonald kicked four goals, while Ben Brown booted three – adding to his double against North in Round 7.

Of course, guys like McDonald and Brown will invariably grab the headlines. But Melbourne’s outstanding defensive efforts mustn’t go unnoticed.

Carlton has pushed a number of opponents all the way in recent weeks, although the Blues have only won one of their last four matches. Looking at the bigger picture, they have managed to pick up just three wins in eight encounters this year – five less than Melbourne!

Even with Harry McKay – the AFL’s top goalkicker – leading Carlton, the Demons look set for yet another win this weekend.

West Coast to Beat Adelaide

For the very first time this year, the Eagles finally secured back-to-back wins in Round 8. Now, that makes it sound as though they are having a bad season. But they have actually claimed five victories in eight outings.

Brendon Ah Chee (4.0) was the star of the show in last weekend’s 38-point crushing of Hawthorn, while Jack Darling (2.2) and Jack Petruccelle (2.0) also made telling contributions.

Meanwhile, the Crows suffered their fourth defeat on the spin last time out. Having lost to Freo, Hawthorn, and GSW in recent weeks, Adelaide was demolished by Port in Round 8.

The Crows started the season in impressive form, winning three of their opening four games.

But since then, they have been sliding down the standings – and they now find themselves eight points behind the Eagles.

All things considered, West Coast should seal three straight victories against a struggling Adelaide outfit.

Best AFL Bets for Round 9, 2021

That concludes my predictions for AFL Round 9, but I’m not finished just yet. Below, I share my betting picks for Round 9.

Remember – if you’re betting on the footy this weekend, make sure you place your wagers with the best Aussie rules betting sites.

St Kilda vs. Geelong – Geelong to Win (1.40)

As you can see, I’ve gone for one safe bet and two slightly riskier bets this week. It goes without saying that Geelong (1.40) to beat St Kilda (2.88) is my safe wager.

The Cats flexed their muscles last weekend, sealing a phenomenal victory over Richmond. On the flip side, the Saints have suffered four defeats in their previous seven matches.

Having won three of their last four games, the Cats shouldn’t struggle to overcome St Kilda on Friday night.

Port Adelaide vs. Western Bulldogs – Western Bulldogs to Win (2.25)

Port Adelaide (1.62) is the bookmakers’ favorite to win this one, but I’m backing the Western Bulldogs (2.25) to leave South Australia with four points in the bag.

Don’t get me wrong. The Power have been playing well this season. But it feels as though the Doggies are on a different level at the moment.

With stars like Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli in red-hot form right now, backing the Dogs at 2.25 feels like a good decision.

Essendon vs. Fremantle – Fremantle to Win (2.20)

With the home-field advantage on their side, Essendon (1.67) is expected to get the better of Fremantle (2.20) this weekend. However, I see it differently.

Not only have the Bombers lost four of their last five games, but they have also suffered six defeats in eight matches this year. Needless to say, morale will be low in the Essendon camp.

By contrast, the Dockers have won three of their previous five outings and will be confident of securing their fifth victory of the campaign at Marvel Stadium.

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