Picks for the A-Game 200 – NASCAR Xfinity Series (2022)

| April 27, 2022 6:25 am PDT

The NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Dover this weekend for the A-Game 200. Surprisingly, my picks looked good at Talladega. I didn’t pick the winner, but A.J. Allmendinger and Ryan Sieg scored a top-five finish.

Talladega is a tough race to predict, but those results give me confidence for Dover. We shouldn’t see as much carnage this week, so the favorites should be near the front on Saturday.

Which Xfinity Series driver will win at the Monster Mile? Let’s check out my top picks for the 2022 A-Game 200.

Justin Allgaier (+600) 

It has been a pretty rough season for Justin Allgaier. He looked solid after starting the season with four straight top 10 finishes. However, it has gone the other way, with five consecutive finishes of 14th or worse.

I’ve picked Allgaier a few times with no success. Hopefully, he’ll bounce back at one of his best tracks.

Allgaier is essentially the veteran of the Xfinity Series, so his 21 Dover starts are the most among active drivers. Take a look at his Dover numbers.

  • 2 wins
  • 10 top-five finishes
  • 14 top 10 finishes
  • 447 laps led
  • 9.4 average finish

Those are impressive numbers, but it gets even better if you only include his numbers with JR Motorsports. He has two wins and nine top-five finishes in 11 starts. Allgaier has led at least 19 laps in six of his last seven Dover races.

Allgaier had a dominant performance in the Fall 2020 race, leading 120 of 200 laps to score his second victory at the track.

The 2022 season hasn’t been kind to Allgaier, but Dover represents a strong bounce-back opportunity. I expect him in contention to score his first victory of the season.

John Hunter Nemechek (+1000)

John Hunter Nemechek is back in the Xfinity Series for his fourth start of the season. Nemechek was in position to win his last start, leading 135 laps at Richmond. Unfortunately, Ty Gibbs bumped him out of the lead in the final corner.

Still, two top-five finishes in three starts isn’t bad. Nemechek will return to the No. 18 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. That car has shown speed everywhere with different drivers. Check out its best finishes in 2022.

  • Trevor Bayne (Auto Club): 3rd
  • Trevor Bayne (Phoenix): 4th
  • John Hunter Nemechek (Richmond): 2nd
  • Ryan Truex (Martinsville): 7th

The car has been in position, but Nemechek gave it its best chance at Richmond. He’ll look to do one better at Dover.

Nemechek has three top 10 finishes at Dover in the Xfinity Series, but this will be his first start with Joe Gibbs Racing. That immediately gives him the upper hand over the field.

The team showed much success with Daniel Hemric in 2021. Hemric may be the defending Xfinity Series champion, but Nemechek has produced better numbers in the Xfinity Series. Bettors should keep an eye on Nemechek at Dover.

Josh Berry (+1000)

Josh Berry has had a similar season to JR Motorsports teammate Justin Allgaier. He had three top-five finishes in his first four races but only has one top 10 finish in his last five starts. Can he turn things around at Dover?

Berry’s only Xfinity Series start at Dover came in last year’s Spring race. Check out his performance.

  • Stage 1 Finish: 2nd
  • Stage 2 Finish: 1st
  • Race Finish: 2nd
  • Driver Rating: 130.4 (3rd)
  • Laps Led: 48 of 200

Berry spent the first 3/4’s of the race battling Allgaier for the lead. Austin Cindric took control in the final 50 laps to score the victory. Cindric won’t be in this year’s race, so that should move Berry to the top of the board.

It’s hard to value Berry at Dover because he only has one start. Obviously, he had a very impressive performance but was it an outlier or a sign of things to come? I’m going with the latter.

Berry grew up racing on short tracks, so Dover should play right into his hands. It doesn’t hurt that his teammate has had a ton of success at the track. Both should be contending for the win.

Daniel Hemric (+1600)

Last week, I talked about Daniel Hemric being the most disappointing driver in the 2022 season. I made him my top pick at Talladega, but he was a non-factor before crashing in the final stage. A 34th-place finish marked his fourth finish of 25th or worse.

Honestly, I don’t feel great about picking Hemric, but the best NASCAR betting sites give him good value for Dover. Check out his numbers in six career starts at the track.

  • 3 top-five finishes
  • 5 top 10 finishes
  • 24 laps led
  • 6.8 average finish

He led 23 laps in the Fall 2018 race, but that’s the only time he has led more than a lap at Dover. Still, he has consistently run near the front with five straight top 10 finishes. I’m hoping we’ll see that, opposed to his 2022 performance.

If nothing else, Hemric needs a good run to show he is a championship contender. Maybe I should’ve accounted for a slow start with a new team, but we’re nine races into the 2022 season.

Hemric should start to run more consistently if he wants to win another championship. Hopefully, he’ll start a good streak at Dover.

Who Will Win the A-Game 200?

Pick
  • Josh Berry
    +1000

This pick came down to Josh Berry and Justin Allgaier. Honestly, if they had the same odds, I likely would’ve picked Allgaier. However, Berry presents more value, so I’m taking him to win at Dover.

Berry has cooled off after a great start to the season. Dover technically isn’t a short track, but it’s a short 1.0-mile oval. Berry nearly won last season, and I believe he’ll do one better in 2022.

This race will be live on Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET on FS1. Bettors can visit Bovada to wager on Xfinity Series action.

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Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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