2022 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Predictions and Pick

| March 30, 2022 6:35 pm PDT

Ross Chastain might not have been my top pick last week, but he was among my favorite value plays at (+2500). Hopefully, you had enough confidence to take that bet because he scored his first career victory at COTA.

The NASCAR Cup Series shifts its focus to Richmond Raceway. The Cup Series will have its first short track race in 2022. I want to say we know what to expect, but the Next-Gen car has brought unpredictable results.

Let’s check out my favorite picks for the 2022 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond. First, take a look at some of the best sportsbooks to bet on this Sunday’s race.

My Favorite Betting Sites for the Toyota Owners 400

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)

Martin Truex Jr’s 2022 season is off to a quiet start. He nearly won at Las Vegas, but that’s the only time we’ve seen him in contention for a win. He has three top 10 finishes but no top-five finishes.

It sounds like the Next-Gen car has Truex thinking about retirement. He could use a breakthrough race, and Richmond presents a great opportunity.

For the longest time, Truex was a non-factor at Richmond. He turned the corner, starting a four-race stretch that saw him lead 100+ laps three times. However, none of those races ended in a win. Then, we saw this impressive stretch.

  Finishing Position Laps Led (of 400)
2018 3rd 163
2019 1st 186
2019 1st 109
2020 2nd 0
2021 5th 107
2021 1st 80

What more can you ask for? Truex has dominated Richmond over the last few years. He has led 80+ laps in eight of his last ten races at the track. Things could be different with the Next-Gen car, but there’s no way I could leave Truex out of my top picks.

This is an excellent opportunity for him to bounce back. I expect him near the front on Sunday.

Joey Logano (+1000)

Last week, Joey Logano was one of my top value picks, but he was never in contention. Logano is sitting third in the standings, but I wouldn’t say he has had race-winning speed all season. Will that change at Richmond?

Logano hasn’t been as dominant as Martin Truex Jr. at Richmond, but his consistency is off the charts. He didn’t have many great performances with Joe Gibbs Racing, but check out his stats with Team Penske.

  • 17 starts
  • 2 wins
  • 11 top-five finishes
  • 14 top 10 finishes
  • 428 laps led
  • 6.1 average finish

Logano is as consistent as they come at Richmond. He has a pair of wins at the track, but he was disqualified after his second victory after failing post-race inspection. Still, he has much more success aside from that race.

Last season, Logano was on his way to a victory in the Spring race. He was pulling away from Denny Hamlin when the caution flew with less than 20 laps to go. Logano lost the lead on pit road, finishing third.

He has what it takes to score another top-five finish. Can he take it to the next level?

Denny Hamlin (+1200) 

Denny Hamlin has by far been the biggest disappointment of the 2022 season. He was among my top contenders for the 2022 Cup Series Championship, but Hamlin has been a non-factor in 2022.

Some of it is bad luck, but I’d say Las Vegas was the only race where he showed any speed. Something has to change quickly or Hamlin is going to miss the playoffs. Richmond represents a great opportunity to turn around his season.

Richmond is Hamlin’s home track, and it has always brought him success. Check out his numbers in his career at Richmond.

  • 30 starts
  • 3 wins
  • 15 top-five finishes
  • 19 top 10 finishes
  • 2,108 laps led
  • 8.8 average finish

Honestly, the biggest surprise about Hamlin’s Richmond success is he only has one win in the last 10 years. He came close in both races last season.

Hamlin led a combined 404 of 800 laps across the two Richmond races but settled for a pair of runner up finishes. Considering his 2022 numbers, I’d say Hamlin would love to have a second-place finish.

It’s still early, so I won’t panic about Hamlin, but Richmond is a pivotal race. It could sway his 2022 season.

Aric Almirola (+3000)

Aric Almirola was the only Cup Series driver to open the season with three top 10 finishes. Unfortunately, it has gone the other way with three finishes of 12th or worse.

Richmond could present an opportunity to start a new top 10 streak. We’ve seen Almirola show speed at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing.

In seven starts with the team, he has three top 10 finishes, with his best mark being a fifth-place finish in the Fall 2018 race. He scored a sixth-place finish in last year’s Spring race.

Almirola’s Richmond success plays a significant factor in this selection, but I’m more focused on his numbers on the short flat track. Phoenix and New Hampshire represent the biggest comparisons to Richmond.

He won at New Hampshire last year and has four straight finishes of 11th or better. Almirola has five top 10 finishes at Phoenix since 2018. Hopefully, those numbers will carry over to Richmond.

We’ve seen many surprise winners this season. Almirola stands out as the obvious long shot pick for Richmond. He surprised everyone last season at New Hampshire and could do the same at Richmond.

Who Will Win the 2022 Toyota Owners 400? 

  • Martin Truex Jr.

I believe Martin Truex Jr. will continue his Richmond success and capture his first victory of 2022. Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole has struggled, but Truex has shown race-winning speed. That gives me confidence over someone like Denny Hamlin.

The Next-Gen car has brought some surprising results, so don’t be afraid to take a chance on someone like Aric Almirola.

Fans can watch Sunday’s race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX. Check out my top picks for the Xfinity Series at Richmond for more betting opportunities.

Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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