2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono NASCAR Predictions and Pick

| July 21, 2022 6:10 am PDT

My NASCAR picks for last week’s race at New Hampshire couldn’t have gone much better. I took a chance with Christopher Bell at (+1600), and it paid off. Bell led the final 42 laps en route to his second career Cup Series win.

The Cup Series heads to Pocono for its lone race of the 2022 season. We should see strategy come into play with the 2.5-mile triangular-shaped track.

How will that impact your M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 predictions? Let’s check out my NASCAR betting picks.

Kyle Busch (+650)

Kyle Busch had an eventful day at New Hampshire. He spun twice and still ran in the top 10 late in the race. Unfortunately, a 12th-place finish gave him five straight finishes outside the top 10.

It wasn’t long ago that Busch led 18+ laps in six of seven races. His season is trending downwards quickly, but Pocono marks a great bounce-back opportunity.

Busch has always been strong at Pocono, but his last 11 races are on another level.

  • 4 wins
  • 7 top-five finishes
  • 10 top 10 finishes
  • 437 laps led
  • 7.2 average finish

He has been on a tear over the last five years at Pocono. His average finish goes to 4.1 if you take out a crash in the second 2020 race. That’s his only finish worse than ninth since 2016. My NASCAR predictions are high on Busch.

Last season, Busch had the highest driver rating in both Pocono races. He won the 2021 Explore the Pocono Mountains 350 on a fuel mileage call. His team overcame a shifter issue to score the victory.

Busch needs a strong run to end his rough patch. The M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 odds have him as the favorite.

Kyle Larson (+800)

It has been a while since Kyle Larson appeared in my NASCAR picks. Larson is often the favorite, so he hasn’t had much value. He doesn’t enter Pocono as the favorite and will have crew chief Cliff Daniels back after a four-race suspension.

Larson is coming off a pair of disappointing finishes. He had a fast car at New Hampshire, but a poor pit call led to him falling through the field.

He has always been a solid driver at Pocono but took it to another level last season. Larson had the car to beat in the first race and was on his way to winning until this happened.

It was a brutal defeat for everyone betting on Larson to win that race. He struggled in the second Pocono race after suffering early damage. The fuel mileage race allowed him to finish second.

Overall, he has four top-fives and eight top 10 finishes in 14 Pocono starts. Larson has led 50 laps across the last four races.

My expert M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 picks believe we’ll see those stats improve in this weekend’s race. Are you backing Larson at Pocono?

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)

New Hampshire was a brutal race for Martin Truex Jr. He had the dominant car, leading 172 of the first 206 laps. He fell back on the final restart, leading to a fourth-place finish.

Christopher Bell’s victory filled the 14th playoff spot. Believe it or not, Truex is on the playoff cutline, despite being fourth in the standings. A new winner outside of Ryan Blaney would put him outside the playoffs.

Truex’s team should have a must-win mentality over the next month. My NASCAR predictions believe we could see Truex in victory lane at Pocono. Check out his numbers in his last 10 starts.

  • 1 win
  • 3 top-five finishes
  • 6 top 10 finishes
  • 105 laps led
  • 10.8 average finish

He has the fourth-most points in the last 10 Pocono races. Truex hasn’t been overpowering like Kyle Busch, but we’ve seen multiple strong performances. His team looks much better as we approach August.

Truex has led 27+ laps in four of his last six races. His seven stage wins lead the Cup Series. Now, he needs a win to lock himself into the playoffs.

Will that victory come at Pocono? It’d be the third of his career.

William Byron (+1100)

William Byron’s 2022 season has been all over the place. He scored two victories through eight races and nearly became the first three-time winner before losing the lead at Darlington.

Believe it or not, Byron has one top 10 finish in his last 12 races. That’s shocking for a driver of his caliber. He has fallen from third to 10th in the standings. My M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 predictions are counting on him to turn it around at Pocono.

Last season, Byron was arguably the best driver in both Cup Series races at Pocono.

  June 26, 2021 June 27, 2021
Finishing Position 3rd 12th
Laps Led 13 22
Average Running Position 7.0 (3rd) 9.0 (4th)
Driver Rating 113.0 (3rd) 111.5 (3rd)

Byron should’ve won the second race. He had a big lead in the final laps, but his crew didn’t tell him to save fuel until it was too late. He pitted from the lead with three laps to go.

Like Kyle Larson, Byron has been solid at Pocono but took it to another level last year. He has two top-fives and five top 10 finishes in eight Pocono starts. Can he break his rough patch on Sunday?

2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Prop Bets

Martin Truex Jr. came through with a top-five finish at New Hampshire, but my other prop bets let me down. Let’s see if things are any better at Pocono.

Kurt Busch Over Alex Bowman (-115)

Like teammate William Byron, Alex Bowman is in a rough patch. He enters Pocono with six straight finishes of 12th or worse. He has crashed in three of his last four races.

Kurt Busch has been inconsistent but has four top 10 finishes in his last eight races. He led 40 laps at New Hampshire before making a late pit stop. He has much more momentum ahead of Pocono.

The M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 betting odds give Bowman a better chance to win, but his recent stretch has me leaning towards Busch.

Bowman was strong in both Pocono races last season. He won the first race after Kyle Larson’s last lap flat tire. He led 34 laps across the two races.

Busch has one top 10 finish in his last three Pocono starts, but 47 laps led show he has been competitive. I expect the same on Sunday, with him finishing ahead of Bowman.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+135)

A few weeks ago, Daniel Suarez captured his first career victory at Sonoma. We haven’t heard much about him lately, but he’s quietly producing solid numbers. He enters Pocono with four top 10 finishes in his last five races.

The best NASCAR sportsbooks give him good value to score a top 10 finish. My free M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 picks believe he’ll extend that streak. Check out his best finishes in 10 Pocono starts.

  • 2017: 7th
  • 2018: 2nd
  • 2019: 8th

Suarez hasn’t scored a top 10 finish in his last five Pocono starts, but he finished 13th and 15th in the 2021 Pocono races. His 2022 success should help him improve upon those results.

Suarez is trending in the right direction as we approach the closing stretch of the regular season. He should have another strong performance.

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 10 (+225)

It’s difficult to have Brad Keselowski in my NASCAR betting picks. He has past success at nearly every track, but that came with Team Penske. His new team hasn’t had the same speed in 2022.

Keselowski has momentum after scoring a season-best seventh-place finish at New Hampshire. That gives me confidence for another top 10 finish at Pocono. His consistency has been off the charts in his last 13 Pocono starts.

  • 0 wins
  • 8 top-five finishes
  • 11 top 10 finishes
  • 87 laps led
  • 7.9 average finish

He crashed in the second 2018 race. His average finish moves down to 5.4 without that finish. Again, it’s tough to value his past success, but his New Hampshire performance gives me confidence.

The strategy aspect of Pocono should help Keselowski. He may not have the fastest car, but he should score a top 10 finish.

Who Will Win the 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400?

My Pick: Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)Bet on NASCAR at Bovada

Martin Truex Jr. had a disappointing finish after having the dominant car at New Hampshire. I believe he’ll redeem the performance with his first victory of 2022.

Truex is on the verge of a must-win situation. We’ve seen him produce strong results at Pocono. My M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 predictions expect another great performance. Will he score his third Pocono win?

Fans can tune into Sunday’s race at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network. Bettors can check out my Xfinity and Truck Series picks for more betting opportunities.

Nicholas Sterling
Nicholas Sterling

Nicholas has been a Sports Writer with GamblingSites.com since May 2021. He has a rich sports background, writing about NASCAR, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, Golf, etc. Nick is always ready for a new challenge.

He enjoys rooting on D.C. sports teams, including the Commanders, Wizards, and Capitals.

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